Using El Niño-Southern Oscillation Climate Data to Improve Food Policy Planning in Indonesia

Datos Bibliográficos

ID8415699
AutoresRosamond L Naylor (0000-0002-1260-3322, Stanford University), Rosamond Naylor, Walter P Falcon (0000-0002-0053-1704, Stanford University), Walter Falcon, Nikolas Wada (Johns Hopkins University), Daniel Rochberg (Stanford University)
Año2002
Volumen38
Número1
Páginas75-91
Fecha de publicación2002-04-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessNo
TipoARTICLE
RevistaBulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0007-4918 • E-ISSN: 1472-7234
EditorialInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/000749102753620293
OpenAlexW1987611973
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas6
Referencias citadas13

Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations

Agricultural economics · Climate change · Climatology · Economics · El Niño Southern Oscillation · Geography · Indonesian · Production (economics) · Southern oscillation · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Geology · Oceanography