What Cereals Will Indonesia Still Import in 2020

Bibliographic Data

ID8416000
AuthorsRobin Bourgeois (0000-0002-1736-3225, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, corresponding author), Dian Kusumaningrum (0000-0002-0672-198X, IPB University)
Year2008
Volume44
Issue2
Pages289-312
Publication date2008-08-01
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueBulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0007-4918 • E-ISSN: 1472-7234
PublisherInforma UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/00074910802169038
OpenAlexW1999848121
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited12

Most existing projection models forecast that Indonesia will become a net importer of increasing amounts of basic cereals such as rice, maize and wheat, implicitly providing grounds for the government's continuing pursuit of food self-sufficiency at any cost. A growing urban population, increases in income per capita, trends in planted area and new technologies are determining factors used in these models. The present paper employs a scenario approach based on a combination of time-series models, qualitative assessments and a cross-country analogy with Malaysia to build a picture of likely food cereal production and consumption patterns in 2020. Consequent levels of imports are calculated and estimates of their weight in the Indonesian economy are presented, comparing four periods: 1975, 1990, 2005 and 2020. These estimates are then used in considering policy issues related to food security and self-sufficiency

Agricultural economics · Agriculture · Consumption (sociology) · Economics · Food security · Geography · Government (linguistics) · Indonesian · Indonesian government · Macroeconomics · Per capita · Per capita income · Population · Production (economics) · Agricultural Economics and Policy · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets

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