The Macro Forecasting Record of the Indonesian Financial Authorities, 2004–15
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8416332 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lloyd R Kenward (Victoria, Canada, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 52 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 321-342 |
| Publication date | 2016-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0007-4918 • E-ISSN: 1472-7234 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00074918.2016.1198466 |
| OpenAlex | W2588469814 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 12 |
A precondition for financial authorities’ macroeconomic effectiveness is a capacity to foresee economic conditions with reasonable accuracy. This article analyses the performance of Bank Indonesia (the central bank) and Indonesia’s Ministry of Finance in forecasting real GDP growth and consumer inflation over the last decade or so. It compares the quality of their forecasts with those of international institutions, aligning the timing of these forecasts to maximise comparability. Overall, the Indonesian authorities—especially the Ministry of Finance, in its revised central government budget (APBN-P)—perform respectably against their international comparators and there is no statistically significant bias in any of the forecasts. Still, there are mild indications of an optimistic bias in forecasts of inflation and growth, and all institutions tend to miss growth slowdowns. The results raise doubts about the value of fiscal policy for near-term macro stabilisation in Indonesia. Likewise, a wide range of uncertainty in forecasting inflation complicates the use of monetary policy for inflation targeting, at least one year ahead
Christian ministry · Comparability · Econometrics · Economic forecasting · Economics · Financial system · Government (linguistics) · Indonesian · Inflation (cosmology) · Inflation targeting · Macro · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Monetary policy · Political science · Quality (philosophy) · Economic Growth and Fiscal Policies · Finance · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |