A Stochastic Model for Measles Epidemics in a Multi-Region Setting

Bibliographic Data

ID8962207
AuthorsG D Murray, Gordon Murray (0000-0001-9866-4734, corresponding author), A D Cliff (0000-0002-5636-0959)
Year1977
Volume2
Issue2
Pages158-158
Publication date1977-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueTransactions of the Institute of British Geographers (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0020-2754 • E-ISSN: 1475-5661
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.2307/621855
OpenAlexW1995136962
LanguageEN
Citations received11

In this paper, a regionally based stochastic model for the diffusion of measles epidemics is developed. The model is tested with an application to ten contiguous sub-areas centred on Bristol. IN this paper we explore some ways in which a stochastic version of the classic Hamer-Soper deterministic model for measles epidemics (Soper, 1929) may be extended to analyse patterns of measles outbreaks in a regional setting. The models developed are applied to a set of ten con- tiguous sub-areas centred on the city of Bristol. Following a description of the nature of the data and the regional setting, the Hamer-Soper model and a stochastic equivalent are outlined for a single areal unit and some of the properties of the stochastic model are illustrated using an arti- ficial data set. The multi-region model is then described and fitted to notifications of measles cases in the ten sub-area system and the results of the analysis are outlined. A modification of the model to give a better fit to the incidence of measles in Bristol itself is also discussed

Econometrics · Epidemic model · Geography · Measles · Population · Sociology · Statistics · Stochastic modelling · Vaccination · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Mathematics · Medicine · Virology · Virology and Viral Diseases

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