A Study in Agricultural Disease Diffusion

The Case of the 1970-71 Fowl-Pest Epidemic

Bibliographic Data

ID8963797
AuthorsAndrew W Gilg (corresponding author)
Year1973
Issue59
Pages77-77
Publication date1973-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueTransactions of the Institute of British Geographers (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0020-2754 • E-ISSN: 1475-5661
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.2307/621713
OpenAlexW2313842042
LanguageEN
Citations received8
References cited4

The diffusion of the 1970-71 fowl-pest epidemic in England and Wales is plotted initially by dot map. Spatial order is gradually created by increasing manipulation of this point pattern for 6500 outbreaks. For each of 201 data cells, growth curves are plotted, these curves analysed for skewness and kurtosis, and these values correlated with other variables. Dates of first arrival, mode and mean are also calculated, smoothed and plotted as further confirmation of spatial order. A consideration of diffusion models, epidemiology and the characteristics of fowl-pest disease leads to the formulation of two models of the diffusion process. One model is found to be superior and suggests that the diffusion process takes the form of a wave front generated by local movements of all kinds. Both negative and positive parameters are suggested for this model. A RECENT review of diffusion studies (L. A. Brown and E. G. Moore, 1969) has concluded that major research efforts are required in four fundamental branches of research into diffusion, namely, levels of resistance to an innovation, changing roles of each component through time, modelling of the spatial interactions that result in movement, and solution of the analytical problems associated with the differences between simulated and observed spatial patterns. This paper, though intended only to describe the actual diffusion of one specific epidemic, begins to solve the first two problems mentioned by Brown and Moore, while continued research is dealing in more detail with the modelling of processes and the comparison of simulated and observed patterns. However, identification of the basic parameters of diffusion has more relevance than merely helping to solve some of the problems mentioned by Brown and Moore, for the process of identification is preceded by an epidemiological case study of the advance of disease through both time and space. From such a case study conclusions can be made about the most likely advance of disease, and thus those measures that are most likely to stop this advance can be implemented. In the longer term such an approach may suggest lines of research in bacteriology, or in the history of field contacts, that may be just as important in finally solving the processes of evolution and diffusion of disease as the theoretical approach. Research into the diffusion of agricultural disease (L. P. Smith and M. E. HugheJones, I969; R. R. Tinline, 1972; P. B. Wright, I968), though having much in common with contemporary diffusion studies in geography and with research techniques in epidemiology, needs to develop a distinct methodology of its own, for the following reasons. First, because geographical diffusion studies over the past 20 years (L. Bowden, I965; T. Hagerstrand, 1952; J. C. Hudson, I969; R. L. Morrill, 1965; A. R. Pred, 1971) mainly deal with economic and social diffusions, and thus involve concepts of behavioural and locational mobility that are clearly not applicable to agricultural animals. The second reason is that epidemiological techniques, though dealing with disease and the construction

Agriculture · Biology · Botany · Fowl · Geography · PEST analysis · Veterinary medicine · Agricultural Innovations and Practices · Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Ecology · Medicine

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