The prediction of social catastrophes
Between necessity and contingency
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 8974992 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Pierpaolo Donati (0000-0002-9794-132X, University of Bologna Bologna Italy, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 269-289 |
| Publication date | 2023-11-19 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0021-8308 • E-ISSN: 1468-5914 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/jtsb.12399 |
| OpenAlex | W4388832919 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 33 |
The article argues that social catastrophes are the product of networks of unsaturated social relations that lead to the exponential spread of a social evil (pandemic, poverty, desertification, etc.). In the exponential curve of catastrophe there is an inflection point where, if unsaturated social relations are saturated, the catastrophe can be halted and ultimately avoided. The inflection point can be conceived as a generative relational complex in which both necessity and contingency of social relations are at work. Necessity is due to constitutive mechanisms that are automatic and, therefore, to some extent mathematically predictable. Contingency refers to non‐automatic, in principle unpredictable relational mechanisms. However, contingency can be of two kinds. It can mean “dependence on” other factors, which can have some degree of predictability, or can be understood as the possibility of “being otherwise”, which is less predictable in its outcomes, but can also open up new opportunities to change the catastrophic trend. The reduction of the exponential curve to logistics can be expected if the networks of relationships at the inflection point are saturated in one way or another. This can be achieved by managing the contingent factors of both types in order to steer the morphogenetic processes of the social networks that configure the inflection point as a relational complex
Antecedent (behavioral psychology · Computer security · Contingency · Contingency plan · Epistemology · Inflection point · Complex Network Analysis Techniques · Computer Science · Critical Realism in Sociology · Mathematics · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Psychology · Social Psychology
Politics of Symbolization Across Central and Eastern Europe
Paradigms in the study of creativity
Ökologische Kommunikation
Governing the Pandemic
Realist Social Theory
Evaluation of strategies to mitigate contagion spread using social network characteristics
Negative Capability and the Capacity to Think in the Present Moment
Semiotics of threats
A critical realist perspective on humanness as a meaningful re‐entry of relational distinctions
Against Essentialism
Rethinking how Technologies Harm
Transcending Modernity with Relational Thinking
Social Relations and the Content of Early Modern Science
Man and Society in Calamity
Structural Effects
Possibilistic Thinking
On the reflexivity of crises
Limits of Steering
Order at the Edge of Chaos
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |