Short-Term Enrollment Forecasting for Accurate Budget Planning
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9014633 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Charles D Salley (corresponding author) |
| Year | 1979 |
| Volume | 50 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 323-333 |
| Publication date | 1979-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Higher Education (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-1546 • E-ISSN: 1538-4640 |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/00221546.1979.11779969 |
| OpenAlex | W2010588701 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 2 |
Accurate enrollment forecasts are a prerequisite for reliable budget projections. This is because tuition payments make up a significant portion of a university's revenue, and anticipated revenue is the immediate constraint on current operating expenditures. Accurate forecasts are even more critical to budget projections when a university's revenue allocations are tied by a state funding formula to credit-hour enrollment [3]. In recent years, the budget forecasting task at many universities has become more difficult than it was during the rapid growth years of the 1960s. The common explanation is that enrollment variations since the early 1970s have been erratic. Actually, the variations only appear erratic when forecasters interpret the latest enrollment change as a lasting trend change. Unfortunately, this focus on trend change has been fostered by researchers who, in developing trend projection models for higher education enrollments, have tended to overlook techniques useful in projecting short-term seasonal and cyclical enrollment variations.' While trend projection techniques can indicate the general level of future expenditures, both curve fitting and causal models, as currently used, have only limited application to projections that deal with one fiscal year at a time
Actuarial science · Business · Econometrics · Economics · Operations management · Operations research · Term (time · Computer Science · Economic, financial, and policy analysis · Innovations in Educational Methods · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,07 |
| Citation span | 1981 - 2009 (29) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |