The effects of plague

Model and evidence

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9295437
AutoresRoger S Bagnall (0000-0002-9817-3326, Columbia University, autor correspondente)
Ano2002
Volume15
Páginas114-120
Data de publicação2002-01-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoJournal of Roman Archaeology (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1047-7594 • E-ISSN: 2331-5709
EditoraCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s1047759400013866
OpenAlexW47558246
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas41
Referências citadas5

In the foregoing article, W. Scheidel builds on earlier work, most notably that of R. P. Duncan-Jones in JRA 9, to offer a model for the predicted effects of the Antonine plague and to argue that the model fits the evidence from Roman Egypt reasonably well within the limits of the quantity and quality of the latter. In his second footnote, he encourages critical response, suggesting that it “may either corroborate or undermine my interpretation.” The following pages are intended as a contribution to that discussion, but with lesser ambitions than either corroborating or undermining the model as a whole. They offer some of both, in fact, but more in the direction of undermining it. There are three reasons for not claiming too much at this point and not offering any general conclusion (as I do not). The first is that I do not have any fixed views on the degree to which the plague was the prime mover behind the changes visible in late 2nd- and 3rd-c. Egypt. In the absence of any concerted attempt to formulate and test other hypotheses about the engines of social and economic change, it is hard to say if the degree of fit of evidence to model is impressive or not. The most obvious counter-candidate is the increased municipalization of Egypt during just this period, especially from A.D. 200 onward. It would be useful to generate a model of economic change from this force and see if it is equally capable of accounting for the evidence

Ancient history · Economics · Geography · Interpretation (philosophy · Operations management · Parallels · Plague (disease · Positive economics · Prime (order theory · Test (biology · Classical Antiquity Studies · History · Mathematics · Philosophy