A Prospective Test of a Criminal Career Model
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9680118 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Arnold Barnett (0000-0002-2003-6153, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, corresponding author), Alfred Blumstein (0000-0002-0748-8366, Carnegie Mellon University), David P Farrington (0000-0003-1312-2325, Bridge University) |
| Year | 1989 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 373-388 |
| Publication date | 1989-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Criminology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0011-1384 • E-ISSN: 1745-9125 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1745-9125.1989.tb01038.x |
| OpenAlex | W2137089623 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 32 |
| References cited | 2 |
In an earlier article in this journal, Barnett, Blumstein, and Farrington (1987) formulated a model that described the criminal careers of the multiple offenders in a cohort of London males that had been studied from their 10th to 25th birthdays. That model involved two subpopulations of offenders (denoted as “frequents” and “occasionals”), each characterized by a constant annual conviction rate (μ) and a constant probability (p) of terminating the career following a conviction. This article describes the results of a prospective and predictive test of the model using new data collected on the same offenders from their 25th to 30th birthdays. The original model accurately predicted the number of recidivists, the degree of recidivism risk, the total number of recidivist convictions, and the time intervals between recidivist convictions. However, the predictions for the frequents suffered some distortions introduced by a few “intermittent” offenders who seemed to have terminated their careers, but who re‐initiated offending during the test period after a long gap
Cohort · Conviction · Criminology · Political science · Recidivism · Statistics · Test (biology · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Criminal Justice and Corrections Analysis · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Law · Mathematics · Psychology
Markov Chain Analysis and Specialization in Criminal Careers
Desistance From Crime
Prognosticating Offending in Early Adulthood
Understanding How Offending Prevalence and Frequency Change with Age in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development Using Bayesian Statistical Models
Exploring the Effects of Mental Health Needs on Intermittency Among Justice-Involved Youth
Key Results from the First Forty Years of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development
Key Issues in Criminal Career Research
Explaining Criminal Careers
Testing Criminal Career Theories in British and American Longitudinal Studies
The Criminal Career
Understanding Desistance from Crime
Recidivism, Redemption, and Desistance
A Signaling Perspective on Employment‐Based Reentry Programming
A Meta-Analysis of the Predictors of Adult Offender Recidivism
Long‐term Crime Desistance and Recidivism Patterns—evidence From the Essex County Convicted Felon Study
Bridging Criminal Careers, Theory, and Policy Through Latent Variable Models of Individual Offending
Participation and Frequency During Criminal Careers Across the Life Span
Modeling Criminal Careers
A Latent Trait Approach to Unifying Criminal Careers
An Empirical Framework for Studying Desistance as a Process
Relationship Between the Offending Frequency (Λ) of Imprisoned and Free Offenders
Examining the Prevalence of Criminal Desistance
Comparing Criminal Career Models
Developmental and Life‐course Criminology
Age, Criminal Careers, and Population Heterogeneity
Not All Criminal Career Models Are Equally Valid
Robustness of Group-Based Models for Longitudinal Count Data
Testing a probabilistic model of desistance from online posting in a right-wing extremist forum
Cybercrime
She's Puttin' Pressure on Me to Do Somethin
The Road to Desistance
The Pathways to Desistance
| Unique citing works | 32 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,86 |
| Citation span | 1989 - 2025 (37) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 31 |