Wl-5841-Fertility in the business cycle

Previous studies found that fertility is affected by the position of the business cycle. However, such studies in the Indian context have not been done yet. This paper shows how fertility reacts in a business cycle in India. We take the unemployment rate as a proxy variable of the business cycle. Through a NARDL model, we find that although fertility is affected when the unemployment rate rises, a fall in the unemployment rate does not affect fertility. Thus, our finding reveals that the effect of unemployment on fertility in India is permanent. We built both short-run and long-run models and found that in the short run, fertility is countercyclical, but in the long run, fertility is pro-cyclical. These findings about fertility dynamics in India are novel and significant. We also add variables such as inflation and infant mortality rates (IMR) in our models to overcome potential bias. Our findings also suggest that inflation and IMR's effect on fertility are significant. Moreover, their short and long-run effects on fertility are opposite

Business cycle · Economics · Fertility · Keynesian economics · Population · Sociology · Agricultural risk and resilience · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management