Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation

Empirical estimates of the impact of government spending shocks disagree on central issues such as the size of output multipliers and the responses of consumption and the real wage. One explanation for the disagreement is that fiscal shocks are often anticipated. Due to misspecification of the information set, anticipation effects may invalidate SVAR estimates of impulse responses. We use economic theory to derive a fiscal SVAR estimator that is applicable when fiscal shocks are anticipated. We study its properties and apply it to US data. We fail to find evidence that anticipation effects overturn the existing findings from the fiscal SVAR literature. Copyright © The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2010

Anticipation (artificial intelligence · Consumption (sociology · Econometrics · Economics · Estimator · Fiscal policy · Government spending · Impulse response · Keynesian economics · Labour economics · Macroeconomics · Private consumption · Wage · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

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