Is Secessionism Mostly About Income or Identity? A Global Analysis of 3,153 Subnational Regions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9708028 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Klaus Desmet (0000-0002-8206-845X, Southern Methodist University), Ignacio Ortuño Ortín (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid), Ömer Özak (0000-0001-6421-2801, Southern Methodist University , & IZA) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 135 |
| Issue | 668 |
| Pages | 1261-1299 |
| Publication date | 2025-04-26 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ej/ueae110 |
| OpenAlex | W4405222759 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 45 |
This paper analyses whether the propensity to secede by subnational regions responds mostly to differences in income per capita or to distinct ethnolinguistic identities. We explore this question in a quantitative political economy model where people’s willingness to finance a public good depends on their income and identity. Using high-resolution economic and linguistic data for the entire globe, we predict the propensity to secede of 3,153 subnational regions in 177 countries. We validate the model-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy and conflict, as well as with an application to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Counterfactual analysis shows that removing ethnolinguistic identity differences reduces the average support for secession from 10.1% to 0.2% of the population, while removing income differences has no major quantitative impact. Although both forces affect secessionism, identity trumps income in determining a region’s propensity to secede
Counterfactual thinking · Demographic economics · Development economics · Economics · Identity (music · Per capita income · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Population · Secession · Sociology · Corruption and Economic Development · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Demography · Law · Local Government Finance and Decentralization · Psychology · Social Psychology
The Size of Nations
Measuring Regional Authority
Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions
Economic Integration and Political Disintegration
Ethnicity and Conflict
On the Number and Size of Nations
How Is Power Shared in Africa?
The Breakup of Nations
Backlash
Income Inequalities in the Former Soviet Union and Its Republics
Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country
Economics and Identity
Depoliticised ethnicity in Tanzania
Regionalists Against Secession
The geography of linguistic diversity and the provision of public goods
The political economy of linguistic cleavages
Subnational diversity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Waving goodbye? The determinants of autonomism and secessionism in Western Europe
Ethnic Inequality
Nation-Building and Education
Overcoming History Through Exit or Integration
Autonomy as a Source of Conflict
SDM
Explaining Regional Autonomy Differences in Decentralized Countries
The Cross-Sectional Determinants of Secessionism in Advanced Democracies
What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse
The Effects of Ethnic Segregation and Ethnic Competition on Political Mobilization in the Basque Country, 1988
Linking Ethnic Data from Africa (Leda)
Armed Conflict 1946-2001
Introducing Acled
A Model of Social Identity with an Application to Political Economy
Territorial Autonomy in the Shadow of Conflict
Peasants into Frenchmen
Patterns of Ethnic Separatism
The Reemergence of 'Peripheral Nationalisms
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |