Domino Secessions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9714142 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jean Lacroix (0000-0002-9106-1110, RITM, Universite Paris-Saclay, France & CESifo Munich), Kris James Mitchener (Santa Clara University, CAGE, CESifo, CEPR & NBER), Kim Oosterlinck (0000-0002-8496-1575, CEBRIG, Solvay Brussels School of Economics & Management, Université libre de Bruxelles & CEPR) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Publication date | 2025-05-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ej/ueaf035 |
| OpenAlex | W4410195299 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 33 |
A secession movement is an uncertain process that evolves over time. We develop a simple theoretical framework in which regions use news to update their decisions to secede. Uncertainty and economies of scale are necessary conditions to observe ‘domino secessions’—sequential interdependent secessions. Empirically, we use geographically specific assets (state bonds) to assess how uncertainty and economies of scale influenced some slaveholding states’ decisions to secede from the United States in the 1860s. Uncertainty prevailed over the outcome of the secession movement with financial markets updating their priors on potential seceders at the election of Abraham Lincoln, but also every time a state seceded. We further document that financial markets priced in economies of scale to both state and federal debt
Domino · Domino effect · Economics · Political science · Chemistry · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · Law
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |