The Effects of Tax Changes on Economic Activity
A Narrative Approach to Frequent Anticipations
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9716932 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sandra García-Uribe (Bank of Spain, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 133 |
| Issue | 650 |
| Pages | 706-727 |
| Publication date | 2023-01-13 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ej/ueac064 |
| OpenAlex | W4295682017 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 27 |
This paper studies the effects of anticipations of tax changes on economic activity through the release of tax news in the media in the United States. I provide a measure of anticipations by exploiting the content of television news. This information typically flows faster than standard measures of gross domestic product, thus I propose a mixed frequency dynamic factor model to estimate both the economic activity latent factor and the effects of anticipated tax shocks on it. I find that one-month-ahead anticipations of tax cuts significantly stimulate current economic activity while those of tax increases produce the opposite effect
Econometrics · Economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Public economics · Economic Policies and Impacts · Media Influence and Politics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output
Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes
Bagging predictors
Random Forests
Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty
The Market for News
What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers
Estimating Fiscal Multipliers
That's the Way It Is
Identifying Government Spending Shocks
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |