Optimal Contact Tracing and Social Distancing Policies to Suppress A New Infectious Disease

Bibliographic Data

ID9716986
AuthorsStefan Pollinger (Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris, corresponding author)
Year2023
Volume133
Issue654
Pages2483-2503
Publication date2023-07-25
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Economic Journal (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297
PublisherOxford University Press (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1093/ej/uead024
OpenAlexW4304191576
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited37

This paper studies the suppression of an infectious disease in the canonical susceptible-infectious-recovered model. It derives three results. First, if technically feasible, the optimal response to a sufficiently small outbreak is halting transmissions instead of building up immunity through infections. Second, the crucial trade-off is not between health and economic costs, but between the intensity and duration of control measures. A simple formula of observables characterises the optimum. Third, the total cost depends critically on the efficiency of contact tracing, since it allows relaxing costly social distancing without increasing transmissions. A calibration to the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the theoretical findings

Contact tracing · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Disease · Distancing · Economics · Herd immunity · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Outbreak · Pandemic · Social contact · Social distance · Vaccination · Computer Science · COVID-19 Digital Contact Tracing · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts · Medicine · Psychology · Social Psychology · Virology

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