Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9717070 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Michael P Clements (0000-0001-6329-1341, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1995 |
| Volume | 105 |
| Issue | 429 |
| Pages | 410 |
| Publication date | 1995-03-01 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2235500 |
| OpenAlex | W2013729233 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 4 |
This paper examines the effects of judgemental adjustments on the rationality of macroeconomic forecasts. Published forecasts based on large-scale models are rarely purely model-based, but often include extensive adjustments. Forecasters' adjustments tend to improve forecast accuracy, but there is no evidence of their impact on the rationality of forecasts. Using series of revisions to forecasts we find little evidence that published forecasts are excessively smooth in the Nordhaus (1987) sense, but intercept corrections do appear to reduce the variation over time in purely model-based forecasts and to alter the underlying output/inflation trade-off implicit in the model
Consensus forecast · Econometrics · Economics · Inflation (cosmology · Judgement · Rationality · Scale (ratio · Economic Policies and Impacts · Economic theories and models · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
| Citations per year | 0.03 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 1995 - 1995 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |