The Evolution of the Phillips Curve

A Modern Time Series Viewpoint

Datos Bibliográficos

ID9723766
AutoresClive W J Granger (Ondokuz Mayıs University), YONGIL JEON (Sungkyunkwan University)
Año2011
Volumen78
Número309
Páginas51-66
Fecha de publicación2011-01-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEconomica (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
EditorialWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00839.x
OpenAlexW1533453369
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas1
Referencias citadas11

Phillips' (1958) original curve involves a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. We consider how his original results change due to updated theoretic and empirical studies, increased computer power, enlarged datasets, increases in data frequency and developed time series econometric models. In the linear models, there was weak causation from unemployment to inflation. Rather than using any of the many nonlinear models that are now available, we adopt a time‐varying parameter linear model as their convenient proxy, which empirically supports Phillips' use of nonlinear model form and causation, but the strength of this result is much weaker in recent periods

Causation · Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Inflation (cosmology) · Macroeconomics · Nonlinear system · Phillips curve · Proxy (statistics) · Series (stratigraphy) · Statistics · Theoretical physics · Time series · Unemployment · Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis · Economic theories and models · Geology · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact