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Investment and Uncertainty

Precipitating the Great Depression in the United States

Bibliographic Data

ID9726249
AuthorsDavid Greasley (University of Edinburgh), Jakob B Madsen (0000-0002-4952-3043, University of Copenhagen)
Year2006
Volume73
Issue291
Pages393-412
Publication date2006-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEconomica (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0013-0427 • E-ISSN: 1468-0335
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/j.1468-0335.2006.00505.x
OpenAlexW2140089132
LanguageEN
Citations received8
References cited26

A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890–2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q , and the uncertainty surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset of the depression: rather, its slump helped to propel the wider collapse

Depression (economics) · Economics · Financial economics · Great Depression · Investment (military) · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Profitability index · Volatility (finance) · Economic theories and models · Finance · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

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Unique citing works8
Citations per year0,47
Citation span2009 - 2022 (14)
Citation velocityhistorical
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 8

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