Are Students on Track? Comparing the Predictive Validity of Administrative and Survey Measures of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills for Long-Term Outcomes
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9730571 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Christopher Cleveland (0000-0002-8619-6088, Brown University, Providence, RI, corresponding author), Ethan Scherer (0000-0002-6548-7724, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 213-225 |
| Publication date | 2025-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Educational Researcher (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-189X • E-ISSN: 1935-102X |
| Publisher | American Educational Research Association (AERA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.3102/0013189x251321422 |
| OpenAlex | W4408530406 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 34 |
Education leaders need valid metrics to predict students’ long-term success. We use a unique data set with cognitive skills, self-regulation, behavior, course performance, and test scores for eighth-grade students from a Northeast school district. We link these data to students’ high school outcomes, college enrollment, persistence, and on-time degree completion. Survey-based cognitive and self-regulation measures predict high school and college outcomes. However, these relationships become small and lose statistical significance when test scores, grade point average, and an absences-suspensions index are included in the predictive models. For leaders hoping to identify the best on-track indicators for college completion, the information collected in student longitudinal data systems better predicts both short- and long-term educational outcomes than the survey-based self-regulation and cognitive measures
Cognition · Developmental psychology · Predictive validity · Psychometrics · Term (time · Test validity · Applied Psychology · Education, Achievement, and Giftedness · Grit, Self-Efficacy, and Motivation · Higher Education Research Studies · Psychology
Handbook of personality theory and research
Crossing the Finish Line
What No Child Left Behind leaves behind
Operational efficiency and the growth of short-term memory span
The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students
Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Fourth Edition
How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence from Project Star
Measuring the Impacts of Teachers I
Personality Psychology and Economics
Promise and Paradox
Validity of observer ratings of the five-factor model of personality traits
Development and Validation of the Short Grit Scale (Grit–S)
Noncognitive Factors and Student Long-Run Success
The Economics of Human Development and Social Mobility
Returns to Education
What Do Test Scores Miss? The Importance of Teacher Effects on Non–Test Score Outcomes
Identifying Naturally Occurring Direct Assessments of Social-Emotional Competencies
Measurement Matters
High stakes testing in higher education and employment
Why High School Grades Are Better Predictors of On-Time College Graduation Than Are Admissions Test Scores
Grit
An other perspective on personality
The Measurement of Student Ability in Modern Assessment Systems
Do skills and behaviors in high school matter? The contribution of noncognitive factors in explaining differences in educational attainment and earnings
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |