A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism

Bibliographic Data

ID9760304
AuthorsMatthew Bunn (0000-0001-6184-5312, Project on Managing the Atom in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, corresponding author)
Year2006
Volume607
Issue1
Pages103-120
Publication date2006-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0002-7162 • E-ISSN: 1552-3349
PublisherSAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1177/0002716206290182
OpenAlexW2059458525
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited6

This article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical and other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, and policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat

Actuarial science · Business · Computer security · Economics · Nuclear terrorism · Political science · Range (aeronautics · Risk analysis (engineering · Risk assessment · Set (abstract data type · Terrorism · Computer Science · Engineering · Law · Nuclear and radioactivity studies · Risk and Safety Analysis · Risk Perception and Management

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