Narrative futures of a low carbon transition for hydrocarbon rentier states

Case of Qatar

Bibliographic Data

ID9843852
AuthorsSayeed Mohammed (corresponding author), Cheryl Desha (0000-0002-4026-0830, Griffith University), Ashantha Goonetilleke (0000-0002-8783-1223, Queensland University of Technology), Jerry Ravetz (0000-0003-4288-2200, University of Manchester), Joe Ravetz
Year2022
Volume143
Pages103021
Publication date2022-10-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueFutures (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.futures.2022.103021
OpenAlexW4293373954
LanguageEN
Citations received4
References cited51

The beginning of the post-fossil fuel era is evident in trends such as fossil fuel divestment, cheaper alternative energy sources, and disruptive technologies that are enabling responsive and reliable alternative energy systems. In this global low-carbon transition, states (countries) that are dependent on hydrocarbon revenues confront an uncertain future, requiring urgent actions to reduce their economic and societal dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. It is well known that choices made will have significant impacts on wealth and prosperity. Unfortunately, desirable transition pathways remain unclear and the benefits ill-defined. Addressing this critical gap in knowledge, this paper frames the construct of a 'low-carbon transition' for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states, presenting 16 decision-support scenarios across three key categories of industrial, economic and energy/ environmental futures. The study used backcasting methods in four creative-narrative scenario workshops focusing on Qatar, engaging with a diverse group of senior technology and policy professionals. The authors discuss the findings in relation to tensions, contradictions and dominant narratives about a low carbon future. The utility of these narratives is concluded by providing a systematic approach for public and private sector leaders to appreciate and plan for a low carbon transition in hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states. The findings provide a useful framing for the future and foresight practitioners working in a similar cultural context

Carbon fibers · Earth science · Economics · Financial economics · Futures contract · Futures studies · Hydrocarbon · Linguistics · Narrative · Political science · Transition (genetics · Artificial Intelligence · Chemistry · Computer Science · Geology · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Organic Chemistry · Philosophy · Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

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