Approaches to anticipatory governance in West Africa

How conceptions of the future have implications for climate action in the present

Dados Bibliográficos

ID9846186
AutoresKarlijn Muiderman (0000-0001-8281-1242, Utrecht University, autor correspondente)
Ano2022
Volume141
Páginas102982
Data de publicação2022-08-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoFutures (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378
EditoraElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.futures.2022.102982
OpenAlexW4282962752
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas11
Referências citadas58

Methods and tools to anticipate futures are growing in prominence to guide decision-making under climate change. A research agenda into the steering effects of these processes is growing but has largely ignored how imagined futures impact present-day actions beyond the Global North. This paper presents a case study analysis of anticipatory governance in a highly climate-vulnerable area - West Africa. It examines processes of anticipation through an analytical framework that identifies four distinct approaches to anticipatory governance in terms of their conceptualization of the future, implications for actions in the present, and ultimate aims intended to be realized. The study finds two dominant approaches that appear in hybrid forms which are quite technocratic in character. These hybrids assess probable or plausible futures to inform and build capacities for strategic risk reduction. Many anticipation processes are participatory, but often focus on transferring expert-based knowledge to stakeholders or discussing adaptation options rather than opening up dialogue on what and whose futures to engage with. The paper argues that more plural and critical dialogue is needed in which stakeholders have agency to shape futures and address power imbalances, particularly in these contexts where anticipation relies on western funding and science

Action (physics · Agency (philosophy · Anticipation (artificial intelligence · Climate change · Corporate governance · Economics · Futures contract · Management · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Scenario planning · Social science · Sociology · Technocracy · Transdisciplinarity · Climate Change and Geoengineering · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Computer Science · Ecology · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance