Job Polarisation, Labour Market Fluidity and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9949569 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Daniele Siena (0000-0003-0706-0631, Politecnico di Milano, corresponding author), Riccardo Zago (Banque de France) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 134 |
| Issue | 661 |
| Pages | 2141-2174 |
| Publication date | 2024-01-25 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ej/ueae006 |
| OpenAlex | W4391286721 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 61 |
This paper shows that job polarisation—i.e., the disappearance of routine jobs—is changing the characteristics of the labour market. This has structural implications for the relationship between inflation and unemployment, the price Phillips curve. Using data from the European Monetary Union and exploiting the fact that job polarisation accelerates during recessions, we obtain two empirical results. First, countries experiencing a bigger shift in the occupational structure during a downturn exhibit a flatter Phillips curve afterwards. Second, the occupational shifts experienced during the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis explain more than a fourth of the flattening of the curve in the 2002–18 period. Then, using a New Keynesian model with unemployment and search and matching frictions, we highlight a channel through which labour market characteristics operate on the slope of the Phillips curve. Increasing labour market fluidity—i.e., a higher separation and hiring rate—decreases the slope of the Phillips curve. Using micro-data, we find that in the European Monetary Union non-routine jobs are more fluid. We conclude that job polarisation flattened the Phillips curve
Beveridge curve · Economics · European debt crisis · European integration · European union · Flattening · Inflation (cosmology · International economics · Keynesian economics · Labour economics · Macroeconomics · Phillips curve · Recession · Unemployment · Unemployment rate · Economic Theory and Policy · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Directed Technical Change
Skills, Tasks and Technologies
Reassessing the ins and outs of unemployment
The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies
The Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market
Looking into the Black Box
Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework
Job Polarization in Europe
Information Technology and the U.S. Economy
The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change
The China Syndrome
The rise and fall of unions in the United States
Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and the Case for Temporary Inflation in the Eurozone
Robots and Jobs
Untangling Trade and Technology
The Perverse Effects of Partial Labour Market Reform
Dissecting the cycle
The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |