Howard Rosenthal
Biographic Data
| ID | 266244 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Howard Rosenthal |
| GIVEN NAMES | Howard |
| FAMILY NAME | Rosenthal |
| SIGNATURE | ROSENTHAL H |
| AFFILIATIONS | Howard Rosenthal, a Fellow of the American Academy since 1992, is Roger Williams Straus Professor of Social Sciences, Emeritus, at Princeton University, and Professor of Politics at New York University. His numerous publications include “Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy” (with Alberto Alesina, 1995) and “Ideology and Congress” (with Keith T. Poole, 2007). He also edited “Credit Markets for the Poor” (with Patrick Bolton, 2005) |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 70 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2693 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 69 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1965 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2017 |
| H-INDEX | 20 |
Ideology and the Ideologists
The revival of ideology, which began early in the second half of the last century, has led to reconsideration of the following questions: What underlies the pattern of the rise and decline of the ideological mode of thought? What leads young intellectuals to search for an ideology? What accounts for the changes in ideological fashion over time and nation, and shifts from one set of philosophical tenets to another? Who indeed are the ""intellectua…
What Do We Owe Each Other
What Do We Owe Each Other? includes essays by some of the finest social and political policy researchers in the United States. They address critical issues in contemporary American society. These range from the making of public opinion, the nature of the presumed social contract between government and its people, the special place of corporate governance and institutional investors with respect to social stability, the search for educational equa…
Ideology & Congress
In Ideology and Congress, authors Poole and Rosenthal have analyzed over 13 million individual roll call votes spanning the two centuries since Congress began recording votes in 1789. By tracing the voting patterns of Congress throughout the country's history, the authors find that, despite a wide array of issues facing legislators, over 81 percent of their voting decisions can be attributed to a consistent ideological position ranging from ultra…
Polarized America
RSF
Congressional Polarization and Its Connection to Income Inequality
This essay updates our findings on political polarization in Congress and elite political actors who work through Congress to affect public policy. We also link various threads of our research with the other essays in this volume. We begin with a discussion of the methodologies that enabled us to identify the emergence of political polarization in Congress, and then turn to substantive results.
Some Simple Tests of Rational Voting and Agenda Setting
This article analyzes election data that permit simple tests of rational voting and agenda setting. The voting test pertains to aggregate election results. The prediction is that when voters have single-peaked preferences, there will be more opposition to the second of two budget proposals that are voted on simultaneously. Unlike the standard binary choice setting, not all voters have weakly undominated voting strategies, but the game among the v…
Why Hasn’t Democracy Slowed Rising Inequality?
Political Bubbles
The Structure of Utility in Spatial Models of Voting
Empirical models of spatial voting allow legislators' locations in a policy or ideological space to be inferred from their roll‐call votes. These are typically random utility models where the features of the utility functions other than the ideal points are assumed rather than estimated. In this article, we first consider a model in which legislators' utility functions are allowed to be a mixture of the two most commonly assumed utility functions…
Why Hasn't Democracy Slowed Rising Inequality
During the past two generations, democratic forms have coexisted with massive increases in economic inequality in the United States and many other advanced democracies. Moreover, these new inequalities have primarily benefited the top 1 percent and even the top .01 percent. These groups seem sufficiently small that economic inequality could be held in check by political equality in the form of "one person, one vote." In this paper, we explore fiv…
Political fortunes
Both during and after bubbles, political outcomes reflect the same forces that operate even in normal times. Such forces include decision-making based on ideologies – free market conservatism, egalitarianism, and populism. Political decisions (and non-decisions) also reflect checks and balances across branches of the federal government, across layers of government in a federal system, and institutional checks, such as bicameralism and filibusters…
Favorite counseling and therapy techniques
Measuring Bias and Uncertainty in DW-Nominate Ideal Point Estimates via the Parametric Bootstrap
DW-NOMINATE scores for the U.S. Congress are widely used measures of legislators' ideological locations over time. These scores have been used in a large number of studies in political science and closely related fields. In this paper, we extend the work of Lewis and Poole (2004) on the parametric bootstrap to DW-NOMINATE and obtain standard errors for the legislator ideal points. These standard errors are in the range of 1%–4% of the range of DW…
Comparing Nominate and Ideal
Empirical models of spatial voting allow us to infer legislators' locations in an abstract policy or ideological space using their roll‐call votes. Over the past 25 years, these models have provided new insights about the U.S. Congress, and legislative behavior more generally. There are now a number of alternative models, estimators, and software packages that researchers can use to recover latent issue or ideological spaces from voting data. The…
Does Gerrymandering Cause Polarization
Both pundits and scholars have blamed increasing levels of partisan conflict and polarization in Congress on the effects of partisan gerrymandering. We assess whether there is a strong causal relationship between congressional districting and polarization. We find very little evidence for such a link. First, we show that congressional polarization is primarily a function of the differences in how Democrats and Republicans represent the same distr…
American Politics X
On party polarization in Congress
Gerald H. Kramer. 1971. “Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964.” American Political Science Review 71 (March)
Gerald Kramer, Steven Brams, Peter Ordeshook, Samuel Popkin, and I were MIT undergraduates interested in political science in the late 1950s. Kramer, after taking a job at Rochester under the new chairman, William Riker, spent 1966–1967 at the Cowles Foundation at Yale University studying econometrics under Marc Nerlove. He began investigating the question of whether macroeconomic fluctuations had any effect on voting behavior. After discovering,…
Analyzing Roll Calls with Perfect Spatial Voting
A recent methodological advance in legislative roll‐call analysis is especially relevant to the study of legislative behavior outside the setting of the United States Congress. We argue that Poole's (2000) optimal classification method for roll‐call analysis is preferable to parametric methods for studying many legislatures. This is because the nature of party discipline, near‐perfect spatial voting, and parliamentary institutions that provides i…
Analyzing Roll Calls with Perfect Spatial Voting
A recent methodological advance in legislative roll-call analysis is especially relevant to the study of legislative behavior outside the setting of the United States Congress. We argue that Poole's (2000) optimal classification method for roll-call analysis is preferable to parametric methods for studying many legislatures. This is because the nature of party discipline, near-perfect spatial voting, and parliamentary institutions that provides i…
Political Polarization and Income Inequality
Political Intervention in Debt Contracts
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of an agricultural economy in which poor farmers borrow from rich farmers. Because output is stochastic (we allow for idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks), there may be default ex post. We compare equilibria with and without political intervention. Intervention takes the form of a moratorium and is decided by voting. When bad economic shocks are highly likely, state-contingent debt moratoria …
D-Nominate after 10 Years
The Hunt for Party Discipline in Congress
We analyze party discipline in the House of Representatives between 1947 and 1998. The effects of party pressures can be represented in a spatial model by allowing each party to have its own cutting line on roll call votes. Adding a second cutting line makes, at best, a marginal improvement over the standard single-line model. Analysis of legislators who switch parties shows, however, that party discipline is manifest in the location of the legis…
Polarized America
A Spatial Model for Legislative Roll Call Analysis
A general nonlinear logit model is used to analyze political choice data. The model assumes probabilistic voting based on a spatial utility function. The parameters of the utility function and the spatial coordinates of the choices and the choosers can all be estimated on the basis of observed choices. Ordinary Guttman scaling is a degenerate case of this model. Estimation of the model is implemented in the NOMINATE program for one dimensional an…
Patterns of Congressional Voting
Congressional roll call voting has been highly structured for most of U.S. history. The structure is revealed by a dynamic, spatial analysis of the entire roll call voting record from 1789 to 1985. The space is characterized by a predominant major dimension with, at times, a significant, but less important second dimension. In the modern era, spatial positions are very stable. This stability is such that, under certain conditions, short run forec…
Political resource allocation, controlled agendas, and the status quo
The Polarization of American Politics
Elected officials in the United States appear to represent relatively extreme support coalitions rather than the interests of middle-of-the-road voters. This contention is supported by analysis of variance of liberal-conservative positions in the United States Senate from 1959 to 1980. Within both the Democratic and the Republican parties, there is considerable variation in liberal-conservative positions, but two senators from the same state and …
Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty
The paradox of not voting is examined in a model where voters have uncertainty about the preferences and costs of other voters. In game-theoretic models of voter participation under complete information, equilibrium outcomes can have substantial turnout even when voting costs are relatively high. In contrast, when uncertainty about preferences and costs is present, only voters with negligible or negative net voting costs participate when the elec…
The Hunt for Party Discipline in Congress
We analyze party discipline in the House of Representatives between 1947 and 1998. The effects of party pressures can be represented in a spatial model by allowing each party to have its own cutting line on roll call votes. Adding a second cutting line makes, at best, a marginal improvement over the standard single-line model. Analysis of legislators who switch parties shows, however, that party discipline is manifest in the location of the legis…
D-Nominate after 10 Years
Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy
In the postwar United States the president's party has always done worse in the midterm congressional elections than in the previous congressional election. Republican administrations exhibit below-average, and Democratic administrations above-average, economic growth in the first half of each term, whereas in the latter halves the two see equal growth. Our rational expectations model is consistent with these two regularities. In presidential ele…
Does Gerrymandering Cause Polarization
Both pundits and scholars have blamed increasing levels of partisan conflict and polarization in Congress on the effects of partisan gerrymandering. We assess whether there is a strong causal relationship between congressional districting and polarization. We find very little evidence for such a link. First, we show that congressional polarization is primarily a function of the differences in how Democrats and Republicans represent the same distr…
A Model of the Political Economy of the United States
We develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the United States. The formal model, which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters, leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections. Our estimates support the theoretical claims that grow…
Why Hasn't Democracy Slowed Rising Inequality
During the past two generations, democratic forms have coexisted with massive increases in economic inequality in the United States and many other advanced democracies. Moreover, these new inequalities have primarily benefited the top 1 percent and even the top .01 percent. These groups seem sufficiently small that economic inequality could be held in check by political equality in the form of "one person, one vote." In this paper, we explore fiv…
Analyzing Roll Calls with Perfect Spatial Voting
A recent methodological advance in legislative roll‐call analysis is especially relevant to the study of legislative behavior outside the setting of the United States Congress. We argue that Poole's (2000) optimal classification method for roll‐call analysis is preferable to parametric methods for studying many legislatures. This is because the nature of party discipline, near‐perfect spatial voting, and parliamentary institutions that provides i…
Measuring Bias and Uncertainty in DW-Nominate Ideal Point Estimates via the Parametric Bootstrap
DW-NOMINATE scores for the U.S. Congress are widely used measures of legislators' ideological locations over time. These scores have been used in a large number of studies in political science and closely related fields. In this paper, we extend the work of Lewis and Poole (2004) on the parametric bootstrap to DW-NOMINATE and obtain standard errors for the legislator ideal points. These standard errors are in the range of 1%–4% of the range of DW…
Comparing Nominate and Ideal
Empirical models of spatial voting allow us to infer legislators' locations in an abstract policy or ideological space using their roll‐call votes. Over the past 25 years, these models have provided new insights about the U.S. Congress, and legislative behavior more generally. There are now a number of alternative models, estimators, and software packages that researchers can use to recover latent issue or ideological spaces from voting data. The…
U.S. Presidential Elections 1968-80
A methodology is presented for empirical estimation of spatial models of voting in mass elections. The basic choice model posits utility functions that depend on spatial distance and a random error term. The parameters of the utility functions are estimated by a polytomous logit model, which is applied to spatial maps of voters and candidates for all presidential elections since 1968. These maps indicate that presidential candidates take position…
Electoral Participation in the French Fifth Republic
Variations in second ballot abstention and blank and invalid ballot rates (over the cross-section of French election districts) are examined for all four legislative elections of the French Fifth Republic. Analysis was conducted primarily through a heuristic decision-making model and a spatial model developed from the theories of Riker, McKelvey, and Ordeshook, and Davis, Hinich, and Ordeshook.Abstentions appear to be primarily influenced by long…
The Structure of Utility in Spatial Models of Voting
Empirical models of spatial voting allow legislators' locations in a policy or ideological space to be inferred from their roll‐call votes. These are typically random utility models where the features of the utility functions other than the ideal points are assumed rather than estimated. In this article, we first consider a model in which legislators' utility functions are allowed to be a mixture of the two most commonly assumed utility functions…
On Dimensionalizing Roll Call Votes in the U.S. Congress
Two related issues have developed in the scale analysis of voting in the U. S. Congress. One is methodological; it concerns the appropriate dimensionalizing model. The other is more substantive, entailing interpretation of the extent to which voting dimensions carry an ideological component. Kenneth Koford contributed to consideration of these issues in his research note, “Dimensions in Congressional Voting,” in the September 1989 issue of this R…
Analysis of Congressional Coalition Patterns
This article proposes stochastic, spatial model of roll-call voting as a benchmark for evaluating more complex models of congressional behavior. On the basis of several evaluative criteria, this model outperforms Weisberg's two-party and three-party models and Hammond and Fraser's random-voting models. Particularly, the spatial model successfully recovers the occurrences of hurrah, party unity, conservative coalition, and Civil War votes as well …
Prediction Analysis in Political Research
Procedures for empirical tests of political theory should be designed to evaluate the success of the specific prediction being tested. This paper introduces; (1) a formal language, termed "prediction logic," for stating an important class of predictions, including predictions that imply there will be relatively few cases in certain cells of a cross-classification; (2) a population measure, ("del"), that indicates the degree of success achieved by…
Directional and Euclidean Theories of Voting Behavior
Recent research by Rabinowitz and Macdonald (1989) claims that voting behavior is better accounted for by a directional model than by a traditional proximity or Euclidean model. This paper compares directional and Euclidean models using congressional roll-call voting data. For these relatively well-informed voters, we can unambiguously reject the directional model in favor of the traditional Euclidean spatial model. We conclude that congressional…
The Unidimensional Congress Is Not the Result of Selective Gatekeeping
Dimensional scaling of congressional voting, somewhat in eclipse since Duncan MacRae's (1958) seminal Dimensions of Congressional Voting, has been reborn in the past decade. First, Keith Poole (1981, 1984, 1990) developed a method for least squares unfolding of interest group ratings. Second, Poole and I (1985, 1987, 1991 b) developed the D-NOMINATE method for scaling legislators and roll calls directly from the roll call voting record. When roll…
Analyzing Roll Calls with Perfect Spatial Voting
A recent methodological advance in legislative roll-call analysis is especially relevant to the study of legislative behavior outside the setting of the United States Congress. We argue that Poole's (2000) optimal classification method for roll-call analysis is preferable to parametric methods for studying many legislatures. This is because the nature of party discipline, near-perfect spatial voting, and parliamentary institutions that provides i…
Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy
Journal Article Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy Get access Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and The Economy. By Alesina(Alberto) and Rosenthal(Howard). Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995. Pp. xiii + 280. £35.00 hardback, US $65.00 hardback, £13.95 paperback, US $17.95 paperback. ISBN 0 521 43029 1, 0 521 43620 6.) M. Teresa Lunati M. Teresa Lunati Bolton Business School Search for other works by …
Election Simulation
Like any political institution, the national election can change with external technological innovation. Certainly, election campaign habits have responded to transport and communication developments. The electronic computer, the political statistics available through public opinion survey archives and election statistics, and the existing social science theory now constitute the technological basis for computer simulation and a possible further …
Data Archives
The Popularity of Charles de Gaulle
When polling organizations repeat the same question over time, the responses of each survey may be combined to give a large cumulated sample. Here the author combined answers to a question regarding satisfaction with De Gaulle, asked twenty separate times from January 1960 to November 1962. Some rather unexpected conclusions emerge regarding the regional distribution of support for De Gaulle, the stability of French attitudes by regions, the reas…
The Roper Center Automated Archive
Journal Article THE ROPER CENTER AUTOMATED ARCHIVE Get access ARTHUR MENDELSOHN, ARTHUR MENDELSOHN Electronic Data Processing, Radio Corporation of AmericaCamden, N.J. Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar HOWARD ROSENTHAL HOWARD ROSENTHAL graduate *School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Institute of Technology. Both are member of the Roger Center's Standing Committee of Technical Consultants Search for o…
On Models and the French Political System
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Candidate selection and voting behavior in France
The Electoral Politics of Gaullists in the Fourth French Republic
The complex relationship between a deputy's Parliamentary voting record and his behavior in electoral politics in his constituency has rarely been traced in French political studies in a precise quantitative manner. One would like to contrast the extent to which both the deputy's Parliamentary voting record and his choices regarding coalitions in local politics depend upon his personal ideology with the extent to which the same behavior depends u…
Participation électorale et conjoncture politique (application de la technique des régressions multiples aux élections de 1962)
Rosenthal Howard, Sen Subrata. Participation électorale et conjoncture politique (application de la technique des régressions multiples aux élections de 1962). In: Revue française de science politique, 20e année, n°3, 1970. pp. 545-556
L'inférence des propriétés individuelles à partir de données agrégées
Howard Rosenthal, Naomi E. Kies, L'inférence des propriétés individuelles à partir de données agrégées: Problèmes de collinéarité, Revue française de sociologie, Vol. 11, No. 1 (Jan. - Mar., 1970), pp. 65-73
A data-bank of political statistics of the French Third Republic 1871-1940
Electoral Participation in the French Fifth Republic
Variations in second ballot abstention and blank and invalid ballot rates (over the cross-section of French election districts) are examined for all four legislative elections of the French Fifth Republic. Analysis was conducted primarily through a heuristic decision-making model and a spatial model developed from the theories of Riker, McKelvey, and Ordeshook, and Davis, Hinich, and Ordeshook.Abstentions appear to be primarily influenced by long…
Game-theoretic models of bloc-voting under proportional representation
Prediction logic and quasi‐independence in empirical evaluation of formal theory
Linking Form of Hypothesis to Type of Statistic
Viability, preference, and coalitions in the french election of 1951
A Prediction-Logic Approach to Causal Models of Qualitative Variates
A Behavioral Model of Coalition Formation
The 1951 elections for the French National Assembly permitted the formation of distinct formalized coalitions in each of 95 multimember districts. The resulting coalition outcomes are analyzed via a behavioral model that emphasizes real-time constraints that are largely ignored by formal game theory. Other major features of the model include: (1) coalitions are built incrementally and without defection until a coalition controls a majority of the…
Prediction Analysis in Political Research
Procedures for empirical tests of political theory should be designed to evaluate the success of the specific prediction being tested. This paper introduces; (1) a formal language, termed "prediction logic," for stating an important class of predictions, including predictions that imply there will be relatively few cases in certain cells of a cross-classification; (2) a population measure, ("del"), that indicates the degree of success achieved by…
Spatial Voting Models for the French Fifth Republic
In this study formal spatial models are applied to cross-sectional analysis of district results on the second ballot of French legislative elections. A model of probabilistic spatial voting better accounts for the data than either standard "ecological" models or a model of deterministic spatial voting. There are three substantive findings concerning voter behavior. First, the adjustment of voters to external information can be largely viewed as a…
Political resource allocation, controlled agendas, and the status quo
The N-Prisoners' Dilemma
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The elusive median voter
Bureaucrats Versus Voters
I. The setter's problem under certainty and the importance of the reversion point, 565.—II. Budget-maximizing with uncertain turnout, 571.—III. Exploiting a sequence of elections, 579.—IV. Implications for empirical research, 581.—Appendix, 585.
Causal Modeling
The Limitations of Log-Linear Analysis
Political science (57 works) · Law (46 works) · Politics (43 works) · Economics (39 works) · Law (32 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (31 works) · Mathematics (27 works) · Voting (27 works) · Computer Science (23 works) · Political economy (19 works)