W J Wouter Botzen
Biographic Data
| ID | 412069 |
|---|---|
| NAME | W J Wouter Botzen |
| GIVEN NAMES | W J Wouter |
| FAMILY NAME | Botzen |
| SIGNATURE | BOTZEN W J W |
| AFFILIATIONS | Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8563-4963 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 49 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 206 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 49 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2008 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
An empirically derived high-resolution spatial windstorm risk model
Extratropical cyclones generate hazardous weather conditions, such as windstorms, which can result in significant societal and economic impacts. This study proposes a transferable empirically derived high-resolution winter windstorm risk model, which is developed in the Netherlands but the methodology is widely applicable to other regions with similar wind climates, exposure characteristics, and building stock, assuming adequate local data is ava…
The impact of natural hazards on migration in the United States and the effect of spatial dependence
In this paper, we analyze the effect of natural hazards on migration in the United States (US) and the importance of spatial dependence in such assessments. We use two measures of migration: migration rates and flows. The model for migration flows is estimated using the gravity model, whereas out- and in-migration rates are analyzed using the spatial Durbin model. Our results indicate there is a major and significant impact of economic damage cau…
Pro-social versus pro-self motivations for green roof adoption
Green roofs are a promising Nature-Based Solution (NBS) for urban climate adaptation, yet their adoption remains limited due to multiple factors, including mixed incentives between private and public benefits. This study investigates the impact of information nudges on public preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for green roof co-benefits in the Netherlands. Using a split-sample ( n = 2173) Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE), we examine how hig…
Assessing the chronic physical risks of climate change for the financial sector
Mexico's Central Bank conducted a comprehensive climate risk assessment using a suite of global models to evaluate physical and transition risks. We focus on chronic physical risks, using a spatially explicit integrated assessment model that differentiates between urban and non-urban areas, capturing local climate impacts. Two complementary assessments are presented. First, we construct an index ranking the exposure of commercial bank loan portfo…
Behavioural public policy for natural disaster preparedness and the role of economic experiments
Natural disaster losses are increasing both in their frequency of occurrence and severity of impacts worldwide due to climate change and socio-economic development in disaster-prone regions. In addition to public sector investments in disaster protection infrastructure, individuals can manage these losses by implementing disaster risk reduction measures at the household level. However, a host of systematic cognitive biases may prevent the taking …
Identifying vulnerability factors associated with heatwave mortality
In recent decades, Europe has experienced severe heatwaves with significant mortality impacts. While hazard and exposure are key factors, vulnerability drivers play a crucial role in shaping these outcomes. However, few studies have examined these drivers at a continental scale. This study presents the first dynamic heat vulnerability assessment for Europe, incorporating spatial and temporal dimensions through ordinary least squares regression. S…
The intention-behavior gap in climate change adaptation
Climate-induced mortality projections in Europe
Extreme heat is becoming more prevalent in Europe and its localized impacts on human health in urban environments are difficult to project. Our main objective was to develop a local-scale integrated assessment model (IAM) to explore the impacts of global warming on heat-related mortality in Europe, with a focus on urban areas. Using the apparent temperature metric, we develop several risk frameworks to project heat-related deaths and help policym…
Preferences for drought risk adaptation support in Kenya
Promoting household-level adaptation measures is an important part of climate change adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability to droughts for (agro-)pastoral communities in sub-Saharan Africa. To develop effective supportive policies, it is important to get a better understanding of the needs in the communities. In this study, we, therefore, present the results of a discrete choice experiment in which we identify preferences for four different…
A look into our future under climate change? Adaptation and migration intentions following extreme flooding in the Netherlands
Worldwide, increased flood risk from climate change prompts adaptive behavior of households in situ or through migration. Both can be sensible adaptation responses involving tradeoffs, and understanding their drivers is important for effective climate policy. However, in-situ adaptation and migration are rarely studied in combination and research on how extreme events trigger adaptive behavior in originally low-risk areas is lacking. We analyze s…
The impact of policy and model uncertainties on emissions projections of the Paris Agreement pledges
Tracking progress towards the Paris Agreement climate goal requires understanding the 2030 emission levels implied by countries’ National Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, key uncertainties and assumptions impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections implied by the NDCs. This study analyses this impact, both globally and for major emitting countries. We find that the assessed uncertainties markedly affect global GHG emission projectio…
Citizens' preferences and valuation of urban nature
Anticipating sea‐level rise and human migration
Sea‐level rise (SLR) threatens millions of people living in coastal areas through permanent inundation and other SLR‐related hazards. Migration is one way for people to adapt to these coastal changes, but presents an enormous policy challenge given the number of people affected. Knowledge about the relationship between SLR‐related hazards and migration is therefore important to allow for anticipatory policymaking. In recent years, an increasing n…
Drivers and dimensions of flood risk perceptions
Time of emergence of economic impacts of climate change
We introduce the concept of time of emergence of economic impacts (ToEI), which identifies the initial moment when the climate change impact signal exceeds a previously defined threshold of past economic output shocks in a given geographic area. We compute the ToEI using probabilistic climate change projections and impact functions from three integrated assessment models of climate change: DICE, RICE and CLIMRISK. Our results demonstrate that, in…
All by myself? Testing descriptive social norm-nudges to increase flood preparedness among homeowners
Nudges based on social norms (norm-nudges) can be compelling behavioral interventions compared with traditional interventions such as taxes and regulations, but they do not work in all circumstances. We tested two empirical norm-nudge frames in an online experiment on taking measures for flood preparedness with large samples of homeowners ( N = 1805) in two European countries, to evaluate the possible interactions between norm-nudge effectiveness…
Charity hazard and the flood insurance protection gap
The flood insurance protection gap, the level of uninsured flood risk, is a problem faced by many European countries and is expected to increase due to climate change. In some countries a cause of low demand for flood insurance is the crowding out of private insurance uptake due to the anticipation of government compensation for uninsured damage, a phenomenon known as charity hazard. This study applies a partial equilibrium model of flood insuran…
Methodological issues in natural disaster loss normalisation studies
The mixed results in Pielke (2020) for natural disaster loss normalisation studies are due to methodological differences. Flaws exist in commonly used normalisation approaches that assume unitary elasticities between exposure indicators and losses. We refute Pielke’s arguments that statistical studies estimating these relationships are biased. We conclude with an agenda for future research
Property price effects of green interventions in cities
Although green interventions, like nature-based solutions, contribute to more sustainable urban environments and provide ecosystem services to urban populations, some impacts are not well understood. This particularly applies to social impacts in the domain of environmental justice, including (green) gentrification. Gentrification refers to a process in which green urban renewal raises property prices, which results in an influx of affluent peopl…
Lessons for climate policy from behavioral biases towards Covid-19 and climate change risks
The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters
Economic losses from natural disasters have been increasing in recent decades. This has been attributed mainly to population and economic growth in disaster-prone areas. Future natural disaster losses are expected to increase due to a continued increase in economic exposure and climate change. This highlights the importance of designing policies that can mitigate the impacts of these disasters on the economy and society. A rapidly expanding liter…
Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions
The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015…
Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach
Recent floods in the United States and Asia again highlighted their devastating effects, and without investments in adaptation, the future impact of floods will continue to increase. Key to making accurate flood-risk projections are assessments of how disaster-risk reduction (DRR) measures reduce risk and how much risk remains after adaptation. Current flood-risk-assessment models are illequipped to address this, as they assume a static adaptatio…
Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points
Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping poin…
An assessment of best practices of extreme weather insurance and directions for a more resilient society
Extreme weather resilience has been defined as being based on three pillars: resistance (the ability to lower impacts), recovery (the ability to bounce back), and adaptive capacity (the ability to learn and improve). These resilience pillars are important both before and after the occurrence of extreme weather events. Extreme weather insurance can influence these pillars of resilience depending on how particular insurance mechanisms are structure…
Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour
Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management
Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks
Factors of influence on flood damage mitigation behaviour by households
Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures
Lessons for climate policy from behavioral biases towards Covid-19 and climate change risks
Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums
Property price effects of green interventions in cities
Although green interventions, like nature-based solutions, contribute to more sustainable urban environments and provide ecosystem services to urban populations, some impacts are not well understood. This particularly applies to social impacts in the domain of environmental justice, including (green) gentrification. Gentrification refers to a process in which green urban renewal raises property prices, which results in an influx of affluent peopl…
The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model
Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance
Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change
Economic valuation of green and blue nature in cities
Drivers and dimensions of flood risk perceptions
Accounting for risk aversion, income distribution and social welfare in cost‐benefit analysis for flood risk management
Most cost‐benefit analysis ( CBA ) textbooks and guidelines recognize the objective of CBAs to improve social welfare—a function of well‐being of all individuals, conceptualized by utility. However, today's common practice to value flood risk management benefits as the reduction of the expected annual damages does not comply with this concept of social welfare, since it erroneously focuses on money instead of well‐being (utility). Diminishing mar…
The safe development paradox
Future Public Sector Flood Risk and Risk Sharing Arrangements
Managing natural disaster risks in a changing climate
Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity during the last few decades, causing considerable economic damage and loss of life. A combination of climate and socio-economic change is likely to augment disaster loss trends in the future, creating the need for more sophisticated disaster risk management. A resilient risk management strategy for uncertain low-probability, high-impact risks comprises a package of measures focused on dis…
Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification
Aerts, J. C. J. H., W. Botzen, A. van der Veen, J. Krywkow, and S. Werners. 2008. Dealing with uncertainty in flood management through diversification. Ecology and Society 13(1): 41. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02348-130141
The intention-behavior gap in climate change adaptation
Preferences for drought risk adaptation support in Kenya
Promoting household-level adaptation measures is an important part of climate change adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability to droughts for (agro-)pastoral communities in sub-Saharan Africa. To develop effective supportive policies, it is important to get a better understanding of the needs in the communities. In this study, we, therefore, present the results of a discrete choice experiment in which we identify preferences for four different…
Citizens' preferences and valuation of urban nature
All by myself? Testing descriptive social norm-nudges to increase flood preparedness among homeowners
Nudges based on social norms (norm-nudges) can be compelling behavioral interventions compared with traditional interventions such as taxes and regulations, but they do not work in all circumstances. We tested two empirical norm-nudge frames in an online experiment on taking measures for flood preparedness with large samples of homeowners ( N = 1805) in two European countries, to evaluate the possible interactions between norm-nudge effectiveness…
Charity hazard and the flood insurance protection gap
The flood insurance protection gap, the level of uninsured flood risk, is a problem faced by many European countries and is expected to increase due to climate change. In some countries a cause of low demand for flood insurance is the crowding out of private insurance uptake due to the anticipation of government compensation for uninsured damage, a phenomenon known as charity hazard. This study applies a partial equilibrium model of flood insuran…
An assessment of best practices of extreme weather insurance and directions for a more resilient society
Extreme weather resilience has been defined as being based on three pillars: resistance (the ability to lower impacts), recovery (the ability to bounce back), and adaptive capacity (the ability to learn and improve). These resilience pillars are important both before and after the occurrence of extreme weather events. Extreme weather insurance can influence these pillars of resilience depending on how particular insurance mechanisms are structure…
Communicating adaptation with emotions
Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among individuals, policy makers, and broader decision makers in companies and organizations so that adaptation to extreme events becomes mainstream practice. We…
Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Management Through Diversification
Aerts, J. C. J. H., W. Botzen, A. van der Veen, J. Krywkow, and S. Werners. 2008. Dealing with uncertainty in flood management through diversification. Ecology and Society 13(1): 41. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-02348-130141
Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors
This study examines flood risk perceptions of individuals in the Netherlands using a survey of approximately 1000 homeowners. Perceptions of a range of aspects of flood risk are elicited. Various statistical models are used to estimate the influence of socioeconomic and geographical characteristics, personal experience with flooding, knowledge of flood threats, and individual risk attitudes on shaping risk belief. The study shows that in general,…
Willingness of homeowners to mitigate climate risk through insurance
Managing natural disaster risks in a changing climate
Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity during the last few decades, causing considerable economic damage and loss of life. A combination of climate and socio-economic change is likely to augment disaster loss trends in the future, creating the need for more sophisticated disaster risk management. A resilient risk management strategy for uncertain low-probability, high-impact risks comprises a package of measures focused on dis…
Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance
A Review of Risk Perceptions and Other Factors that Influence Flood Mitigation Behavior
In flood risk management, a shift can be observed toward more integrated approaches that increasingly address the role of private households in implementing flood damage mitigation measures. This has resulted in a growing number of studies into the supposed positive relationship between individual flood risk perceptions and mitigation behavior. Our literature review shows, however, that, actually, this relationship is hardly observed in empirical…
Risk attitudes to low-probability climate change risks
Stimulating flood damage mitigation through insurance
Flood risk has increased in France in the last 20 years and is projected to increase further in the future due to climate change and increase in exposure. Since 1982, France has had a natural disasters insurance system (‘CatNat’) in place that covers flood damage. This insurance system has been combined with what are called ‘Risk Prevention Plans’ (PPRs) in order to stimulate the undertaking of flood risk mitigation measures by communities and ho…
Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour
Framing of risk and preferences for annual and multi-year flood insurance
Evaluating Flood Resilience Strategies for Coastal Megacities
Integration of models for storms and floods, damages and protections, should aid resilience planning and investments.
Factors of influence on flood damage mitigation behaviour by households
Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management
Communicating adaptation with emotions
Adaptation to extreme weather is often considered as having a low urgency and being a low priority governance option, even though the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase as a result of climate change. An important issue is how to raise an adequate level of concern among individuals, policy makers, and broader decision makers in companies and organizations so that adaptation to extreme events becomes mainstream practice. We…
Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO 2 emissions
Effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures
Accounting for risk aversion, income distribution and social welfare in cost‐benefit analysis for flood risk management
Most cost‐benefit analysis ( CBA ) textbooks and guidelines recognize the objective of CBAs to improve social welfare—a function of well‐being of all individuals, conceptualized by utility. However, today's common practice to value flood risk management benefits as the reduction of the expected annual damages does not comply with this concept of social welfare, since it erroneously focuses on money instead of well‐being (utility). Diminishing mar…
The effectiveness of flood risk communication strategies and the influence of social networks—Insights from an agent-based model
Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums
Insights into Flood‐Coping Appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory
Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk‐reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was fou…
Future Public Sector Flood Risk and Risk Sharing Arrangements
The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters
Economic losses from natural disasters have been increasing in recent decades. This has been attributed mainly to population and economic growth in disaster-prone areas. Future natural disaster losses are expected to increase due to a continued increase in economic exposure and climate change. This highlights the importance of designing policies that can mitigate the impacts of these disasters on the economy and society. A rapidly expanding liter…
Science for Loss and Damage. Findings and Propositions
The debate on “Loss and Damage” (L&D) has gained traction over the last few years. Supported by growing scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change amplifying frequency, intensity and duration of climate-related hazards as well as observed increases in climate-related impacts and risks in many regions, the “Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage” was established in 2013 and further supported through the Paris Agreement in 2015…
Advancing disaster policies by integrating dynamic adaptive behaviour in risk assessments using an agent-based modelling approach
Recent floods in the United States and Asia again highlighted their devastating effects, and without investments in adaptation, the future impact of floods will continue to increase. Key to making accurate flood-risk projections are assessments of how disaster-risk reduction (DRR) measures reduce risk and how much risk remains after adaptation. Current flood-risk-assessment models are illequipped to address this, as they assume a static adaptatio…
Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points
Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping poin…
Geography (39 works) · Economics (33 works) · Flood Risk Assessment and Management (31 works) · Business (23 works) · Environmental resource management (23 works) · Flood myth (23 works) · Environmental planning (20 works) · Disaster Management and Resilience (19 works) · Climate change (18 works) · Psychology (17 works)