Tempo and the TFR
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10967995 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Máire Ní Bhrolcháin (0000-0001-5128-9164, University of Southampton, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Volume | 48 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 841-861 |
| Publication date | 2011-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demography (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790 |
| Publisher | Duke University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13524-011-0033-4 |
| PMID | 21643883 |
| OpenAlex | W1975288353 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 30 |
| References cited | 69 |
Tempo effects in period fertility indicators are widely regarded as a source of bias or distortion. But is this always the case? Whether tempo change results in bias depends, in the view advanced here, on the measure used, the meaning of bias/distortion, and the objective of analysis. Two ways of construing bias in period measures are suggested, and their relevance is discussed in the context of five broad purposes for measuring period fertility: describing and explaining fertility time trends, anticipating future prospects, providing input parameters for formal models, and communicating with nonspecialist audiences. Genuine timing effects are not biasing when period fertility is the explanandum but are distorting when the aim is to estimate cohort fertility. Alternatives to tempo adjustment are available that are a more defensible solution to the issue of timing change. Tempo adjustment could be more fruitfully considered a form of modeling rather than empirical measurement. The measurement of period fertility could be improved by relying more on a statistical approach and less on indicators based on stable assumptions. Future progress will depend on integrating research on measurement with substantive investigation
Context (archaeology · Distortion (music · Econometrics · Economics · Fertility · Geography · Meaning (existential · Period (music · Political science · Population · Positive economics · Relevance (law · Sociology · Telecommunications · Assisted Reproductive Technology and Twin Pregnancy · Computer Science · Demography · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Law · Psychology
Summary and general conclusions
Determinants of Childbearing
Demographic Measurement
Post-Transitional Fertility
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
On Causation in Demography
Lively Questions for Demographers about Death at Older Ages
Visualising Immigrant Fertility -- Profiles of Childbearing and their Implications for Migration Research
Changing fertility patterns in China
Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility
Misleading Policy Messages Derived from the Period TFR
Recent fertility changes in Mongolia
Total number of births shrinking faster than fertility rates
Gender and fertility within the free churches in the Sundsvall region, Sweden, 1860–1921
China's Below-Replacement Fertility
Causal Impact of School Starting Age on the Tempo of Childbirths
An Extension of the Conventional TFR
Understanding How Immigrant Fertility Differentials Vary over the Reproductive Life Course
How Is Fertility Behavior in Africa Different
Birth Spacing and Fertility in the Presence of Son Preference and Sex-Selective Abortions
A Cohort Model of Fertility Postponement
Brazil’s Missing Infants
A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility
Levels and patterns of internal migration in Europe
Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries
Ultra-low fertility in South Korea
The fertility of recent migrants to England and Wales
Fertility progression in Germany
Educational differences in period fertility
Rising Educational Participation and the Trend to Later Childbearing
Demographic patterns in developed societies
How Long Do We Live?
Inventing Temperature
Cohort Analysis in Social Research
The Dictionary of Demography
Childbearing Trends in Sweden 1961--1997
Why Have Children in the 21st Century? Biological Predisposition, Social Coercion, Rational Choice
A sensitivity analysis of the bongaarts-feeney method for adjusting bias in observed period total fertility rates
The process of demographic translation
Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of ryder’s basic translation equation
Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility
Fertility decline in Taiwan
The Emergence of Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe During the 1990s
Long‐Term Population Decline in Europe
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing
Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union
Cohort Analysis and Demographic Translation
The analysis of birth statistics in the light of the recent international recovery of the birth-rate
Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe
Summary and general conclusions
The Process of Entry into First Marriage
Cohort Analysis of Fertility
The End of "Lowest-Low" Fertility
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
Period Parity Progression Measures of Fertility in China
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
Will US Fertility Remain Low? A New Economic Interpretation
Period Paramount? A Critique of the Cohort Approach to Fertility
Translation Formulae for Non-repeatable Events
Aiming at a moving target
Period Parity Progression Ratios and Birth Intervals in England and Wales, 1941-1971
The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world
One-Child Families or a Baby Boom? Evidence From China's 1987 One-Per-Hundred Survey
Social Policy and Recent Fertility Change in Sweden
Observations on the History of Cohort Fertility in the United States
China's Below-Replacement Fertility
On Causation in Demography
Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries
What Is Going to Happen to American Fertility
Policies Addressing the Tempo Effect in Low-Fertility Countries
Lively Questions for Demographers about Death at Older Ages
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World
New Perspectives on Fertility in Britain
Cinq projections de fecondite fondees sur une hypothese de stabilite des comportements
France
Austria
Demographic translation and tempo effects
Social differentials in speed-premium effects in childbearing in Sweden
Tempo effects in mortality
Tempo and its Tribulations
On the tempo and quantum of first marriages in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland
Life Expectancy at Current Rates vs. Current Conditions
Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures
Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility
On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures
| Unique citing works | 30 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,58 |
| Citation span | 2007 - 2025 (19) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 28 |