Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12076368 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stefan Rayer (University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA,, corresponding author), Stanley K Smith (University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 147-161 |
| Publication date | 2010-09-16 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Planning Education and Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0739-456X • E-ISSN: 1552-6577 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0739456x10380056 |
| OpenAlex | W2142783439 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 16 |
| References cited | 37 |
Small-area population forecasts are used for a wide variety of planning and budgeting purposes. Using 1970 to 2005 data for incorporated places and unincorporated areas in Florida, we evaluate the accuracy of forecasts made with several extrapolation techniques, averages, and composite methods, and we assess the effects of differences in population size, growth rate, and length of forecast horizon on forecast errors. We further investigate the impact of adjusting forecasts to account for changes in special populations and annexations. The findings presented in this study will help practitioners make informed decisions when they construct and analyze small-area population forecasts
Actuarial science · Consensus forecast · Econometrics · Economics · Extrapolation · Geography · Population · Population growth · Small area estimation · Statistics · Variety (cybernetics · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Demography · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics
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| Unique citing works | 16 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,07 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2025 (15) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 16 |