Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10969448 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stanley K Smith (University of Florida, corresponding author), Terry Sincich (University of Florida) |
| Year | 1988 |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 461-474 |
| Publication date | 1988-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demography (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790 |
| Publisher | Duke University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2061544 |
| PMID | 3234579 |
| OpenAlex | W1985033613 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 23 |
| References cited | 22 |
A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors
Confidence interval · Distribution (mathematics · Econometrics · Empirical distribution function · Population · Sample (material · Stability (learning theory · Statistics · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Demography · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics
Principles of Forecasting
Principles of Forecasting
New Evaluations of Simple Models for Small Area Population Forecasts
Recent developments in population projection methodology
Mape-R
Population Forecast Errors
Factors Affecting the Accuracy of Subcounty Population Forecasts
Resisting the Allure of Large Projection Models
Precision, bias, and uncertainty for state population forecasts
Assessing Uncertainty in Small Area Forecasts
In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts
Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts
The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors
On the validity of Mape as a measure of population forecast accuracy
Evaluating Population Forecast Accuracy
Population forecast accuracy
Insights from the Evaluation of Past Local Area Population Forecasts
Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties
An evaluation of population projections by age
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors
A note on the measurement of accuracy for subnational demographic estimates
More on the Cohort-Component Model of Population Projection in the Context of HIV/Aids
Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
Exploratory data analysis
Forecasting
An analysis of variance test for normality (complete samples)
Population forecasting and local economic planning
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Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden
Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the united states
An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model
A Test of Combinations of Models for Projecting the Population of Minor Civil Divisions
The Limits of Population Forecasting
| Unique citing works | 23 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,66 |
| Citation span | 1991 - 2018 (28) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 22 |