Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan Sub-Districts

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15464484
AutoresGentille Musengimana (0000-0002-9552-3298, Stellenbosch University, autor de correspondencia), Fidele Kanyimbu Mukinda (0000-0002-0764-6213, Stellenbosch University), Roderick Machekano (Stellenbosch University), Hassan Mahomed (0000-0001-6775-9482, Western Cape Department of Health, autor de correspondencia)
Año2016
Volumen13
Número9
Páginas859-859
Fecha de publicación2016-08-29
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1661-7827 • E-ISSN: 1660-4601
EditorialMultidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (PUBLISHER • CH)
DOI10.3390/ijerph13090859
PMID27589772
OpenAlexW2517270130
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas11
Referencias citadas6

This paper describes the relationship between temperature change and diarrhoea in under five-year-old children in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area (CTMA) of South Africa. The study used climatic and aggregated surveillance diarrhoea incidence data of two peak periods of seven months each over two consecutive years. A Poisson regression model and a lagged Poisson model with autocorrelation was performed to test the relationship between climatic parameters (minimum and maximum temperature) and incidence of diarrhoea. In total, 58,617 cases of diarrhoea occurred in the CTMA, which is equivalent to 8.60 cases per 100 population under five years old for the study period. The mixed effect overdispersed Poisson model showed that a cluster adjusted effect of an increase of 5 °C in minimum and maximum temperature results in a 40% (Incidence risk ratio IRR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.31-1.48) and 32% (IRR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.22-1.41) increase in incident cases of diarrhoea, respectively, for the two periods studied. Autocorrelation of one-week lag (Autocorrelation AC 1) indicated that a 5 °C increase in minimum and maximum temperature led to 15% (IRR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20) and 6% (IRR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.01-1.12) increase in diarrhoea cases, respectively. In conclusion, there was an association between an increase in minimum and maximum temperature, and the rate at which diarrhoea affected children under the age of five years old in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area. This finding may have implications for the effects of global warming and requires further investigation

Atmospheric sciences · Cape · Geography · Incidence (geometry · Maximum temperature · Metropolitan area · Poisson distribution · Poisson regression · Population · Rate ratio · Statistics · Air Quality and Health Impacts · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Demography · Mathematics · Medicine · Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology · Pediatrics