Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

Dados Bibliográficos

ID23344246
AutoresDavid Spiegelhalter (0000-0001-9350-6745, University of Cambridge, autor correspondente), M Pearson (0000-0002-8161-2660, University of Cambridge), Ian Short (0000-0003-0371-2743, The Open University)
Ano2011
Volume333
Fascículo6048
Páginas1393-1400
Data de publicação2011-09-09
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoScience (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0036-8075 • E-ISSN: 0193-4511
EditoraAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1126/science.1191181
PMID21903802
OpenAlexW2015011409
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas88
Referências citadas44

We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge—or from essential indeterminacy about the future—remains a challenge.

Data mining · Data science · Epistemology · Graphics · Indeterminacy (philosophy) · Infographic · Literacy · Numeracy · Political science · Politics · Representation (politics) · Climate Change Communication and Perception · Computer Science · Data Visualization and Analytics · Psychology · Science and Climate Studies