Changes in precipitation with climate change

Bibliographic Data

ID23345408
AuthorsKevin E Trenberth (0000-0002-1445-1000, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, corresponding author), KE Trenberth
Year2011
Volume47
Issue1
Pages123-138
Publication date2011-03-31
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueClimate Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0936-577X • E-ISSN: 1616-1572
PublisherInter-Research Science Center (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.3354/cr00953
OpenAlexW2328573691
LanguageEN
Citations received116
References cited9

There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmospheric and surface energy budget plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, and also in the slower rate of change that occurs in total precipitation than total column water vapor. With modest changes in winds, patterns of precipitation do not change much, but result in dry areas becoming drier (generally throughout the subtropics) and wet areas becoming wetter, especially in the mid-to high latitudes: the 'rich get richer and the poor get poorer'. This pattern is simulated by climate models and is projected to continue into the future. Because, with warming, more precipitation occurs as rain instead of snow and snow melts earlier, there is increased runoff and risk of flooding in early spring, but increased risk of drought in summer, especially over continental areas. However, with more precipitation per unit of upward motion in the atmosphere, i.e. 'more bang for the buck', atmospheric circulation weakens, causing monsoons to falter. In the tropics and subtropics, precipitation patterns are dominated by shifts as sea surface temperatures change, with El Nio a good example. The volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 led to an unprecedented drop in land precipitation and runoff, and to widespread drought, as precipitation shifted from land to oceans and evaporation faltered, providing lessons for possible geoengineering. Most models simulate precipitation that occurs prematurely and too often, and with insufficient intensity, resulting in recycling that is too large and a lifetime of moisture in the atmosphere that is too short, which affects runoff and soil moisture.

Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climatology · Extratropical cyclone · Geography · Global warming · Meteorology · Precipitation · Storm · Water cycle · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Geology · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research