Covid-Induced Economic Uncertainty
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23348536 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Scott Baker (0000-0002-6276-3244, Northwestern University), Nena Bloom (0000-0002-1600-7819, Northwestern University), Nicholas Bloom, Steven J Davis (0000-0002-9338-0844, Northwestern University), Steven Davis (0000-0001-8319-3175), Stephen Terry (0000-0002-7692-2074, Boston University) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Publication date | 2020-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | REPORT |
| Venue | National Bureau of Economic Research (REPOSITORY) |
| Publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.3386/w26983 |
| OpenAlex | W3015948226 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 146 |
| References cited | 7 |
Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators -stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys -that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures. We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several weeks. We also illustrate how these forward-looking measures can be used to assess the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis. Specifically, we feed COVID-induced first-moment and uncertainty shocks into an estimated model of disaster effects developed by Baker, Bloom and Terry (2020). Our illustrative exercise implies a year-on-year contraction in U.S. real GDP of nearly 11 percent as of 2020 Q4, with a 90 percent confidence interval extending to a nearly 20 percent contraction. The exercise says that about half of the forecasted output contraction reflects a negative effect of COVID-induced uncertainty.
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Business cycle · Consumer confidence index · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Econometrics · Economics · Financial economics · Macroeconomics · Pandemic · Volatility (finance) · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Market Dynamics and Volatility · Medicine · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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| Unique citing works | 146 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 24,33 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2026 (7) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 125 |