Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis

Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison

Bibliographic Data

ID23348620
AuthorsPierre Friedlingstein (0000-0003-3309-4739, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement), Peter M Cox (0000-0002-0679-2219, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology), P Cox (0000-0002-4636-5668, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology), Richard Betts (0000-0002-4929-0307, Met Office), Leon Bopp (0000-0003-4732-4953, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement), Werner von Bloh (0000-0002-7399-2704, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Victor Brovkin (0000-0001-6420-3198, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), Patricia Cadule (0000-0002-4830-5802, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Scott Doney (0000-0002-3683-2437, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), M Eby (University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada), Inez Fung (0000-0003-4106-9875, University of California, Berkeley), Govindasamy Bala (0000-0002-3079-0600, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), J John (University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California), Jasmin G John (0000-0003-2696-277X, University of California, Berkeley), Colin Jones (0000-0001-8283-3134, Met Office), Fortunat Joos (0000-0002-9483-6030, University of Bern), Tomomichi Kato (0000-0003-3757-3243, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Michio Kawamiya (0000-0001-7553-0522, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Wolfgang Knorr (0000-0003-1342-1958, University of Bristol), Keith Lindsay (0000-0002-3672-1665, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research), H Damon Matthews (0000-0003-3625-390X, University of Calgary), Thomas Raddatz (0009-0002-0265-8095, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry), P J Rayner (0000-0001-7707-6298, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement), P Rayner (IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), Christian H Reick (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry), C Reick (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany), E Roeckner (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), K-G Schnitzler (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), K G Schnitzler (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), Roman Schnur (0000-0002-7380-8313, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), Kuno Strassmann (University of Bern), Andrew Weaver (0000-0002-0770-0590, University of Victoria), A J Weaver (University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada), Chisato Yoshikawa (0000-0002-0067-9063, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Ning Zeng (0000-0002-7489-7629, University of Maryland, College Park)
Year2006
Volume19
Issue14
Pages3337-3353
Publication date2006-07-15
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Climate (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0894-8755 • E-ISSN: 1520-0442
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1175/jcli3800.1
OpenAlexW2151328940
LanguageEN
Citations received153
References cited88

Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

Atmospheric sciences · Carbon cycle · Climate change · Climate commitment · Climate model · Climate sensitivity · Climatology · Coupled model intercomparison project · Ecosystem · Effects of global warming · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Land use · Land use, land-use change and forestry · Transient climate simulation · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Atmospheric Ozone and Climate · Climate variability and models · Ecology · Environmental Science · Oceanography