Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23348943 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Colin J Carlson (0000-0001-6960-8434, Georgetown University, corresponding author), Gregory F Albery (0000-0001-6260-2662, Georgetown University, corresponding author), Cory Merow (0000-0003-0561-053X, University of Connecticut), Christopher H Trisos (0000-0002-5854-1489, University of Cape Town), Casey M Zipfel (0000-0002-7903-6318, Georgetown University), EVAN A ESKEW (0000-0002-1153-5356, EcoHealth Alliance), Kevin J Olival (0000-0003-3211-1875, EcoHealth Alliance), Noam Ross (0000-0002-2136-0000, EcoHealth Alliance), Shweta Bansal (0000-0002-1740-5421, Georgetown University) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 607 |
| Issue | 7919 |
| Pages | 555-562 |
| Publication date | 2022-07-21 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Nature (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0028-0836 • E-ISSN: 1476-4687 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w |
| PMID | 35483403 |
| OpenAlex | W4225013427 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 97 |
| References cited | 78 |
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife3,4. In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal–virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming. Changes in climate and land use will lead to species aggregating in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the cross-species transmission of animal-associated viruses.
Biodiversity · Biological dispersal · Biology · Climate change · Environmental health · Geography · Mammal · Population · Range (aeronautics) · Spillover effect · Transmission (telecommunications) · Animal Disease Management and Epidemiology · Ecology · Viral Infections and Vectors · Zoonotic diseases and public health
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| Unique citing works | 97 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 19,4 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2026 (6) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 88 |