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Abrupt Climate Change

Bibliographic Data

ID23381540
AuthorsR B Alley (Department of Geosciences and EMS Environment Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.), Jochem Marotzke (0000-0001-9857-9900, National Oceanography Centre), W D Nordhaus (Yale University), J T Overpeck (Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.), D Peteet (Goddard Institute for Space Studies), D M Peteet (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.), R A Pielke (Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.), Raymond T Pierrehumbert (0000-0002-5887-1197, University of Chicago), Peter B Rhines (University of Washington), T F Stocker (Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.), Lynne D Talley (0000-0003-1574-729X, Scripps Institution of Oceanography), J M Wallace (0000-0003-1120-3770, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and)
Year2003
Volume299
Issue5615
Pages2005-2010
Publication date2003-03-28
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueScience (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0036-8075 • E-ISSN: 0193-4511
PublisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1126/science.1081056
PMID12663908
OpenAlexW2129999750
LanguageEN
Citations received115
References cited48

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Abrupt climate change · Adaptability · Biology · Climate change · Climate model · Climate system · Climatology · Earth system science · Economics · Ecosystem · Effects of global warming · Environmental resource management · Forcing (mathematics) · Global warming · Natural resource economics · Psychological resilience · Resilience (materials science) · Transient climate simulation · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate variability and models · Ecology · Environmental Science · Geology · Global Energy and Sustainability Research

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Unique citing works115
Citations per year4,79
Citation span2002 - 2026 (25)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedYes
Citation typesNeutral: 88
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