Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy

An End-of-2021 Assessment

Bibliographic Data

ID4121548
AuthorsPatrick Heuveline (0000-0001-9503-901X, University of California, Los Angeles, corresponding author)
Year2022
Volume48
Issue1
Pages31-50
Publication date2022-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation and Development Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/padr.12477
PMID37325186
OpenAlexW4221026351
LanguageEN
Citations received26
References cited50

Timely, high-quality mortality data have allowed for assessments of the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on life expectancies in upper-middle- and high-income countries. Extant data, though imperfect, suggest that the bulk of the pandemic-induced mortality might have occurred elsewhere. This article reports on changes in life expectancies around the world as far as they can be estimated from the evidence available at the end of 2021. The global life expectancy appears to have declined by 0.92 years between 2019 and 2020 and by another 0.72 years between 2020 and 2021, but the decline seems to have ended during the last quarter of 2021. Uncertainty about its exact size aside, this represents the first decline in global life expectancy since 1950, the first year for which a global estimate is available from the United Nations. Annual declines in life expectancy (from a 12-month period to the next) appear to have exceeded two years at some point before the end of 2021 in at least 50 countries. Since 1950, annual declines of that magnitude had only been observed on rare occasions, such as Cambodia in the 1970s, Rwanda in the 1990s, and possibly some sub-Saharan African nations at the peak of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Demographic economics · Development economics · Disease · Economics · Geography · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Life expectancy · Longevity · Pandemic · Population · Socioeconomics · Sociology · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health and Conflict Studies · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Medicine · Gerontology