Sensitivity Analysis of Excess Mortality due to the Covid-19 Pandemic
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 4120836 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Marília R Nepomuceno (0000-0002-5687-5776), Ilya Klimkin (0000-0003-0200-2467), Dmitri A Jdanov (0000-0003-4633-2011), Ainhoa Alustiza‐galarza (0000-0001-6608-4815), Vladimir M Shkolnikov (0000-0003-2259-5423) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 48 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 279-302 |
| Publication date | 2022-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population and Development Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0098-7921 • E-ISSN: 1728-4457 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1111/padr.12475 |
| PMID | 35600716 |
| OpenAlex | W4214810733 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 24 |
| References cited | 32 |
Estimating excess mortality is challenging. The metric depends on the expected mortality level, which can differ based on given choices, such as the method and the time series length used to estimate the baseline. However, these choices are often arbitrary, and are not subject to any sensitivity analysis. We bring to light the importance of carefully choosing the inputs and methods used to estimate excess mortality. Drawing on data from 26 countries, we investigate how sensitive excess mortality is to the choice of the mortality index, the number of years included in the reference period, the method, and the time unit of the death series. We employ two mortality indices, three reference periods, two data time units, and four methods for estimating the baseline. We show that excess mortality estimates can vary substantially when these factors are changed, and that the largest variations stem from the choice of the mortality index and the method. We also find that the magnitude of the variation in excess mortality is country-specific, resulting in cross-country rankings changes. Finally, based on our findings, we provide guidelines for estimating excess mortality
Baseline (sea · Biology · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Disease · Econometrics · Economics · Excess mortality · Index (typography · Metric (unit · Mortality rate · Operations management · Pandemic · Sensitivity (control systems · Statistics · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Computer Science · Demography · Engineering · Global Health Care Issues · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Internal Medicine · Mathematics · Medicine
Estimating Covid-19 excess mortality during and after the pandemic
Beyond death counts
Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021
India's death toll in 2021 during the Covid-19 pandemic
Large and unequal life expectancy declines during the Covid-19 pandemic in India in 2020
The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020–2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden
What should be the baseline when calculating excess mortality? New approaches suggest that we have underestimated the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and previous winter peaks
Mortality in Germany during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Inequality in life expectancy losses by education in Finland during Covid-19 pandemic
Deaths during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic
Can we estimate crisis death tolls by subtracting total population estimates? A critical review and appraisal
The spread of the Covid-19 infection in Russia’s Baltic macro-region
National Life Expectancy Lags Behind Benchmark Progress and the Role of Smoking
Seasonal Mortality and its Impact on Spatial Inequality in Life Expectancy Across Italy
The Casualties of War
Seasonality in mortality and its impact on life expectancy levels and trends across Europe
Excess Mortality as a Tool to Monitor the Evolution of Health Emergencies
Excess Mortality During the Covid-19 Pandemic in South Korea
Contextualizing the Global Burden of Covid-19 Pandemic
Global and National Declines in Life Expectancy
Estimation de la surmortalité dans les régions françaises et espagnoles pendant la première vague de Covid-19
Lives saved, lives lost, and under-reported Covid-19 deaths
Covid 19 mortality as a reflection of the quality of health in EU countries
Excess mortality
Excess deaths associated with covid-19 pandemic in 2020
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries
Tracking excess mortality across countries during the Covid-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset
Linking excess mortality to mobility data during the first wave of Covid-19 in England and Wales
County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with Covid-19 in the United States
Estimating the burden of the Covid-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales
Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in Europe since 1850
Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
| Unique citing works | 24 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 23 |