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How Availability Heuristic, Confirmation Bias and Fear May Drive Societal Polarisation

An Opinion Dynamics Simulation of the Case of Covid-19 Vaccination

Bibliographic Data

ID7532786
AuthorsTeng Li (0000-0002-3724-5349, Huazhong Agricultural University, corresponding author), Wander Jager (0009-0002-9264-2897, University of Groningen)
Year2023
Volume26
Issue4
Publication date2023-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1460-7425 • E-ISSN: 1460-7425
PublisherJournal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.18564/jasss.5135
OpenAlexW4388144571
LanguageEN
Citations received5
References cited25

The stark contrast between different opinions on COVID-19 vaccination suggests that the underlying opinion dynamics is a topic worth studying. Here we build a comprehensive agent-based model by incorporating fear into the HUMAT framework to study how the availability heuristic and confirmation bias influence information processing and impact the opinion dynamics and vaccination rate in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic. Three scenarios are designed to explore the impact of the disease severity, confirmation bias, and authorities on COVID-vaccination opinion polarisation and the vaccination rate. Main simulation results indicate that: 1) Increased fear of disease raises the vaccination rate and accelerates people’s uptake of COVID vaccines. 2) Confirmation bias fuels opinion polarisation through the mechanism of information selection and improves the satisfaction of different groups. 3) Opposing authorities and availability heuristic promote opinion polarisation, while more moderate authorities reduce polarisation but do not make it disappear. Implications of these results are discussed for science communication related to complex societal problems

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Biology · Confirmation bias · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Dynamics (music · Econometrics · Economics · Heuristic · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Vaccination · Computer Science · Medicine · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Psychology · Social Psychology · Artificial Intelligence · Virology

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Unique citing works5
Citations per year1,67
Citation span2023 - 2025 (3)
Citation velocityrecent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 5
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