Jonathan Doelman
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 6568465 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Jonathan Doelman |
| NOMBRES | Jonathan |
| APELLIDO | Doelman |
| FIRMA | DOELMAN J |
| AFILIACIONES | Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6842-573X |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 39 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 459 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 39 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2016 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 7 |
A more complete Image
Currently, climate impacts are mostly absent in the analysis of process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs). This is becoming increasingly problematic given the fact that climate impacts are expected to influence both baseline developments as well as the capacity to mitigate and adapt in the future. This paper presents a set of scenarios made using the IAM IMAGE with climate change impacts on labor productivity and GDP, renewable energy sup…
Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits
Bundling measures for food systems transformation
Climate action and clean cooking are vital for sustaining air pollution-related health benefits
Modelling PM2.5 reduction scenarios for future cardiopulmonary disease reduction
Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal
To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5 °C target, we show that demand and technological interve…
Prospective life cycle assessment of climate and biodiversity impacts of meat‐based and plant‐forward meals
The emerging field of prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA) offers opportunities for evaluating the environmental impacts of possible future consumption shifts. One such shift involves a transition from meat‐based to plant‐forward diets, acknowledged to mitigate environmental impacts of the food system under present day conditions. Current diets are often meat intensive (“meat‐based”), whilst “plant‐forward” diets include mainly plant‐based fo…
Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields
Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO 2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigatio…
Climate policy and the SDGs agenda
The sustainable development goals (SDGs) represent the global ambition to accelerate sustainable development. Several SDGs are directly related to climate change and policies aiming to mitigate it. This includes, among others, the set of SDGs that directly influence the climate, land, energy, and water (CLEW) nexus (SDGs 2, 6, 7, 13, 15). This study aims at understanding the synergies and trade-offs between climate policy and the SDGs agenda: how…
Global sustainability scenarios lead to regionally different outcomes for terrestrial biodiversity
Mitigating climate change (CC) and reversing biodiversity decline are urgent and interconnected global priorities. Strategies to address both crises must consider the relationships, synergies and trade-offs between key response measures, including sustainable production and consumption patterns, protected areas (PAs) and climate mitigation policy (CP). In this paper, we review a large set of scenarios ( n = 96) from the Integrated Model to Assess…
Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets
The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. He…
Food and land system transformations under different societal perspectives on sustainable development
The future of food and land systems is crucial for achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, given their essential role in providing adequate nutrition and their significant impact on Earth system processes. Despite widespread consensus on the need for transformation, discussed strategies vary widely, from technology-driven to sufficiency-focused approaches, emphasizing different agents of change and policy mixes. This study assesses t…
Impact of lifestyle, human diet and nutrient use efficiency in food production on eutrophication of global aquifers and surface waters
Good water quality requires end-of-pipe control plus lifestyle and food system change. • Local dominance of natural sources can hinder mitigation strategies for N and P. • Unbalanced reductions of N versus P loads can lead to unexpected negative impacts. A spatially explicit (0.5 degree resolution) analysis is presented of the impact of human lifestyle, diet and nutrient use efficiency in food production and wastewater treatment on exceedance of …
Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits
Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding gl…
Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach
The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The sustainable development goals and the planetary boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, such as biodiversity, water, food, nutrients and climate, and are strongly interconnected. A key questi…
Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales
With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the glo…
Exploring river nitrogen and phosphorus loading and export to global coastal waters in the Shared Socio-economic pathways
This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aquaculture; (iv) nature. Exploring the changes during 1980–2015 and 2015–2050 according to the SSPs sh…
Commentary
Identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints
Biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. Up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. Here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), using loss in Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as an indicator of biodive…
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has d…
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodive…
Reply to
The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future …
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementation…
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the Image model
Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability. • We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability. • Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability. • Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requi…
Reconciling global sustainability targets and local action for food production and climate change mitigation
Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change mitigation scenarios
Identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints
Biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. Up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. Here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), using loss in Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as an indicator of biodive…
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Exploring river nitrogen and phosphorus loading and export to global coastal waters in the Shared Socio-economic pathways
This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aquaculture; (iv) nature. Exploring the changes during 1980–2015 and 2015–2050 according to the SSPs sh…
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus
Impact of lifestyle, human diet and nutrient use efficiency in food production on eutrophication of global aquifers and surface waters
Good water quality requires end-of-pipe control plus lifestyle and food system change. • Local dominance of natural sources can hinder mitigation strategies for N and P. • Unbalanced reductions of N versus P loads can lead to unexpected negative impacts. A spatially explicit (0.5 degree resolution) analysis is presented of the impact of human lifestyle, diet and nutrient use efficiency in food production and wastewater treatment on exceedance of …
Commentary
Demand for biodiversity protection and carbon storage as drivers of global land change scenarios
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementation…
Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – Hyde 3.2
This paper presents an update and extension of HYDE, the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE version 3.2). HYDE is an internally consistent combination of historical population estimates and allocation algorithms with time-dependent weighting maps for land use. Categories include cropland, with new distinctions for irrigated and rain-fed crops (other than rice) and irrigated and rain-fed rice. Grazing lands are also provided, divided…
Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the Image model
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural fe…
Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change mitigation scenarios
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future …
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emi…
Supplementary material to "Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale"
Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale
Most scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that project greenhouse gas emissions include the use of bioenergy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions or even to achieving negative emissions (together with CCS). The potential amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere depends, among others, on the yields of bioenergy crops, the land available to grow these crops and the efficiency with which CO2 produced by combustion is capture…
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation
Integrated scenarios to support analysis of the food–energy–water nexus
The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
We examine risks to current agricultural land to future changes in water availability. • We present a multiple model inter-comparison of future land demand and water availability. • Eleven percent of croplands and ten percent of grasslands are at risk from declining water availability. • Changes in diet and waste reduction offer a buffer against land loss and food insecurity. Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requi…
Reconciling global sustainability targets and local action for food production and climate change mitigation
Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has d…
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodive…
Reply to
The climate change mitigation potential of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales
With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the glo…
Exploring river nitrogen and phosphorus loading and export to global coastal waters in the Shared Socio-economic pathways
This global spatially explicit (0.5 by 0.5 degree) analysis presents the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs, processing and biogeochemical retention and delivery to surface waters and river export to coastal seas according to the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). Four systems are considered: (i) human system; (ii) agriculture; (iii) aquaculture; (iv) nature. Exploring the changes during 1980–2015 and 2015–2050 according to the SSPs sh…
Commentary
Identifying regional drivers of future land-based biodiversity footprints
Biodiversity footprints quantify the impacts on ecosystems caused by final consumption in a region, accounting for imports and exports. Up to now, footprint analyses have typically been applied to analyze past or present consumption patterns. Here, we quantify future land-based biodiversity footprints associated with three diverging Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), using loss in Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) as an indicator of biodive…
Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the global water-land-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach
The human-earth system is confronted with the challenge of providing a range of resources for a growing and more prosperous world population while simultaneously reducing environmental degradation. The sustainable development goals and the planetary boundaries define targets to manage this challenge. Many of these are linked to the land system, such as biodiversity, water, food, nutrients and climate, and are strongly interconnected. A key questi…
Environmental Science (31 obras) · Economics (27 obras) · Natural resource economics (25 obras) · Ecology (23 obras) · Climate change (22 obras) · Environmental resource management (19 obras) · Geography (18 obras) · Agriculture (17 obras) · Greenhouse gas (14 obras) · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact (12 obras)