Prediction Markets
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 4029709 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Justin Wolfers (0000-0001-7939-103X, Assistant Professor of Business, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford, California; Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Eric Zitzewitz (Stanford University) |
| Año | 2004 |
| Volumen | 18 |
| Número | 2 |
| Páginas | 107-126 |
| Fecha de publicación | 2004-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | Sí |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | The Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965 |
| Editorial | American Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1257/0895330041371321 |
| OpenAlex | W4256232447 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 69 |
| Referencias citadas | 17 |
We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a range of prediction contexts, we show that market-generated forecasts are typically fairly accurate, and that they outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Carefully designed contracts can yield insight into the market's expectations about probabilities, means and medians, and also uncertainty about these parameters. Moreover, conditional markets can effectively reveal the market's beliefs about regression coefficients, although we still have the usual problem of disentangling correlation from causation. We discuss a number of market design issues and highlight domains in which prediction markets are most likely to be useful
Causation · Econometrics · Economics · Financial economics · Market data · Prediction market · Regression · Statistics · Computer Science · Engineering · Financial Markets and Investment Strategies · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Mathematics · Sports Analytics and Performance · Finance
The impact of political majorities on firm value
Predicting consumer behavior with Web search
When Does "Economic Man" Dominate Social Behavior?
Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics
Forecasting in International Relations
Clifford Winston, Government Failure versus Market Failure
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration
How Effective Altruism Can Help Psychologists Maximize Their Impact
A Novel Financial Market for Mitigating Hurricane Risk. Part I
A Novel Financial Market for Mitigating Hurricane Risk. Part II
The Compensation Fund for Climate Impacts
Human and Algorithmic Predictions in Geopolitical Forecasting
Obstacles to harnessing analytic innovations in foreign policy analysis
Aggregating individual credences into collective binary beliefs
Forecasting AI progress
Smart treaties
Political Uncertainty and Credit Risk
Geographies of Prediction Markets
Die Börse und das Wettbüro
The formation of aggregate expectations
Citizen Forecasts of the 2008 U . S . Presidential Election
The Vicious Cycle
Why Are There Unintended Consequences of Program Action, and What Are the Implications for Doing Evaluation
Sports lottery game prediction system development and evaluation on social networks
The power of prediction with social media
Collective intelligence for idea management with Internet‐based information aggregation markets
Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs
Designing prediction markets for international negotiations
Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict
Forecasting in International Relations
Special Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives
Information Markets
Designing Institutions to Aggregate Preferences and Information
New Directions in Corporate Governance
Towards Scalable Governance
Ideometrics
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections
Momentum and Social Learning in Presidential Primaries
Predicting Experimental Results
Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study
Voting and conformity
Designing real terrorism futures
Pandemic preparation without romance
Flexible pensions for politicians
Market epistemology
Private prison stocks and the 2020 presidential election
From “Broad Studies” to Internet-based “Expert Knowledge Aggregation”. Notes on the methodology and technology of knowledge integration
Inter‐market Arbitrage in Betting
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets
A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy
Information Acquisition in Ostensibly Efficient Markets
Using Markets to Inform Policy
How Market Prices React to Information
Information and Efficiency
Is research in social psychology politically biased? Systematic empirical tests and a forecasting survey to address the controversy
Dollars on the Sidewalk
Descriptive Representation and Political Efficacy
Quid Pro Quo? Corporate Returns to Campaign Contributions
Forecasting Elections
Closeness Counts
Interest rates and the 2004 Australian Election
Examining the replicability of online experiments selected by a decision market
Vote expectations at the next level. Trying to predict vote shares in the 2013 German federal election by polling expectations
The "timeline" method of studying electoral dynamics
Repugnance as a Constraint on Markets
Has Economic Analysis Improved Regulatory Decisions
Be More Conceptual Regarding Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) as Art
Feeling the Future
| Obras citantes distintas | 69 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 3,29 |
| Intervalo de citas | 2005 - 2026 (22) |
| Velocidad de citación | current |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 69 |