Beyond Rational Expectations
A Constructive Interpretation of Keynes's Analysis of Behaviour Under Uncertainty
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 9710230 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Bill Gerrard (0000-0002-5078-8911, University of York, autor de correspondencia) |
| Año | 1994 |
| Volumen | 104 |
| Número | 423 |
| Páginas | 327 |
| Fecha de publicación | 1994-03-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | No |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | The Economic Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0013-0133 • E-ISSN: 1468-0297 |
| Editorial | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.2307/2234753 |
| OpenAlex | W2004048317 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 11 |
| Referencias citadas | 6 |
This paper suggests that behaviour under uncertainty depends not only on rational expectations but also the agent's evaluation of the adequacy of the available evidence on which the expectations are based. It is argued that behavioural functions need to be augmented by a credence variable. This proposition is derived from Keynes's argument in the General Theory that investment depends on both the most probable forecast and the state of confidence, reflecting the distinction between probability and weight in his A Treatise on Probability. The research implications of the proposed model are indicated
Argument (complex analysis · Constructive · Credence · Econometrics · Economics · Epistemology · Interpretation (philosophy · Investment (military · Mathematical economics · Positive economics · Proposition · Rational expectations · Statistics · Variable (mathematics · Computer Science · Economic Theory and Institutions · Economic Theory and Policy · Law · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Philosophy
The Rational Expectations Hypothesis as a Key Element of New Classical Macroeconomics
"Focus on Economic Theory Keynes on the "Nature of Economic Thinking
Reputação, credibilidade e transparência da autoridade monetária e o estado de expectativa
Incertitude, probabilités et esprits animaux
Reading the right signals and reading the signals right
Portfolio Allocation, Liquidity-Preference and the q Ratio
Introduction to the Mini-Symposium on Lucas’s 1972 ‘Expectations and the Neutrality of Money’ in Historical Perspective
A Post Keynesian theory of decision making under uncertainty
Confidence Matters for Current Economic Growth
The Significance of the Monetary Context of Economic Behavior
Uncertainty, conventions and short-term expectations
| Obras citantes distintas | 11 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 0,41 |
| Intervalo de citas | 1999 - 2023 (25) |
| Velocidad de citación | historical |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 11 |