Richard Dawid
Biographic Data
| ID | 1063103 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Richard Dawid |
| GIVEN NAMES | Richard |
| FAMILY NAME | Dawid |
| SIGNATURE | DAWID R |
| AFFILIATIONS | Stockholm University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1472-2958 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 19 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 94 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 19 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2006 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
A bayesian model of credence in low energy supersymmetry
We carry out a quantitative Bayesian analysis of the evolution of credences in low energy supersymmetry (SUSY) in light of the most relevant empirical data. The analysis is based on the assumption that observers apply principles of optimism or pessimism about theory building in a coherent way. On this basis, we provide a rough assessment of the current range of plausible credences in low energy SUSY and determine in which way data from the Large …
Decoherence and Probability
One cannot justifiably presuppose the physical salience of structures derived via decoherence theory based upon an entirely uninterpreted use of the quantum formalism. Non-probabilistic accounts of the emergence of probability via decoherence are unconvincing. An alternative account of the emergence of probability involves the combination of a partially interpreted decoherence model and an averaging of observables with respect to a positive-defin…
Does the No Alternatives Argument Need Gerrymandering to Be Significant
In a recent paper, Tushar Menon has argued that the no-alternatives argument can only be significant if the priors for numbers of alternatives are tuned in an implausible way (gerrymandered, as he calls it). In this paper, I demonstrate that priors needed for making a no-alternatives argument significant are in line with what can be plausibly assumed in a successful research field
Non-empirical physics from a historical perspective: New pathways in history and philosophy of physics
Mond and meta-empirical theory assessment
While $$\Lambda $$ Λ CDM has emerged as the standard model of cosmology, a small group of physicists defends modified newtonian dynamics (MOND) as an alternative view on cosmology. Exponents of MOND have employed a broad, at times explicitly philosophical, conceptual perspective in arguing their case. This paper offers reasons why that MONDian defense has been ineffective. First, we argue that the defense is ineffective according to Popperian or …
Meta-empirical confirmation: Addressing three points of criticism
Epistemic Separability and Everettian Branches: A Critique of Sebens and Carroll
We discuss the proposal by Sebens and Carroll to derive the Born rule in Everettian quantum mechanics from a principle they call ‘ESP-QM’. We argue that the proposal fails: ESP-QM is not, as Sebens and Carroll argue, a ‘less general version’ of an independently plausible principle, ESP, and can only be motivated by the empirical success of quantum mechanics, including use of the Born rule. Therefore, ESP-QM cannot have the status of a meta-theore…
The role of meta-empirical theory assessment in the acceptance of atomism
The universal acceptance of atomism in physics and chemistry in the early 20th century went along with an altered view on the epistemic status of microphysical conjectures. Contrary to the prevalent understanding during the 19th century, on the new view unobservable objects could be 'discovered'. It is argued in the present paper that this shift can be connected to the implicit integration of elements of meta-empirical theory assessment into the …
Delimiting the Unconceived
It has been argued in Dawid (String theory and the scientific method, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, [4]) that physicists at times generate substantial trust in an empirically unconfirmed theory based on observations that lie beyond the theory’s intended domain. A crucial role in the reconstruction of this argument of “non-empirical confirmation” is played by limitations to scientific underdetermination. The present paper discusses the qu…
The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy
According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument (NMA) is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of …
String dualities and empirical equivalence
Bayesian perspectives on the discovery of the Higgs particle
A philosophical look at the discovery the Higgs boson
Many worlds: Decoherent or incoherent
Higgs Discovery and the Look Elsewhere Effect
The discovery of the Higgs particle required a signal of 5 σ significance. The rigid application of that condition is a convention that disregards more specific aspects of the given experiment. In particular, it does not account for the characteristics of the look elsewhere effect in the individual experimental context. The paper relates this aspect of data analysis to the question as to what extent theoretical reasoning should be admitted to pla…
The No Alternatives Argument
Scientific theories are hard to find, and once scientists have found a theory, H, they often believe that there are not many distinct alternatives to H. But is this belief justified? What should scientists believe about the number of alternatives to H, and how should they change these beliefs in the light of new evidence? These are some of the questions that we will address in this article. We also ask under which conditions failure to find an al…
Against the empirical viability of the Deutsch–Wallace–Everett approach to quantum mechanics
On the Conflicting Assessments of the Current Status of String Theory
The current status of string theory is assessed quite differently by most of the theory's exponents than by the majority of physicists in other fields. While the former tend to have a high degree of trust in string theory's viability, the latter largely share a substantially more skeptical point of view. This article argues that the controversy can be best understood in terms of a paradigmatic rift between the two sides over their understandings …
Underdetermination and Theory Succession from the Perspective of String Theory
This article investigates the implications of string theory for the conception of scientific theory confirmation. The classical understanding of theory confirmation is based on the assumption that scientific theory building is underdetermined by the available empirical data. Several arguments are presented, which suggest a devaluation of this ‘principle of scientific underdetermination’ in the context of string theory. An altered conception of sc…
The No Alternatives Argument
Scientific theories are hard to find, and once scientists have found a theory, H, they often believe that there are not many distinct alternatives to H. But is this belief justified? What should scientists believe about the number of alternatives to H, and how should they change these beliefs in the light of new evidence? These are some of the questions that we will address in this article. We also ask under which conditions failure to find an al…
Underdetermination and Theory Succession from the Perspective of String Theory
This article investigates the implications of string theory for the conception of scientific theory confirmation. The classical understanding of theory confirmation is based on the assumption that scientific theory building is underdetermined by the available empirical data. Several arguments are presented, which suggest a devaluation of this ‘principle of scientific underdetermination’ in the context of string theory. An altered conception of sc…
The role of meta-empirical theory assessment in the acceptance of atomism
The universal acceptance of atomism in physics and chemistry in the early 20th century went along with an altered view on the epistemic status of microphysical conjectures. Contrary to the prevalent understanding during the 19th century, on the new view unobservable objects could be 'discovered'. It is argued in the present paper that this shift can be connected to the implicit integration of elements of meta-empirical theory assessment into the …
Many worlds: Decoherent or incoherent
Higgs Discovery and the Look Elsewhere Effect
The discovery of the Higgs particle required a signal of 5 σ significance. The rigid application of that condition is a convention that disregards more specific aspects of the given experiment. In particular, it does not account for the characteristics of the look elsewhere effect in the individual experimental context. The paper relates this aspect of data analysis to the question as to what extent theoretical reasoning should be admitted to pla…
On the Conflicting Assessments of the Current Status of String Theory
The current status of string theory is assessed quite differently by most of the theory's exponents than by the majority of physicists in other fields. While the former tend to have a high degree of trust in string theory's viability, the latter largely share a substantially more skeptical point of view. This article argues that the controversy can be best understood in terms of a paradigmatic rift between the two sides over their understandings …
Mond and meta-empirical theory assessment
While $$\Lambda $$ Λ CDM has emerged as the standard model of cosmology, a small group of physicists defends modified newtonian dynamics (MOND) as an alternative view on cosmology. Exponents of MOND have employed a broad, at times explicitly philosophical, conceptual perspective in arguing their case. This paper offers reasons why that MONDian defense has been ineffective. First, we argue that the defense is ineffective according to Popperian or …
The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy
According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument (NMA) is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of …
Bayesian perspectives on the discovery of the Higgs particle
Meta-empirical confirmation: Addressing three points of criticism
Does the No Alternatives Argument Need Gerrymandering to Be Significant
In a recent paper, Tushar Menon has argued that the no-alternatives argument can only be significant if the priors for numbers of alternatives are tuned in an implausible way (gerrymandered, as he calls it). In this paper, I demonstrate that priors needed for making a no-alternatives argument significant are in line with what can be plausibly assumed in a successful research field
A philosophical look at the discovery the Higgs boson
Underdetermination and Theory Succession from the Perspective of String Theory
This article investigates the implications of string theory for the conception of scientific theory confirmation. The classical understanding of theory confirmation is based on the assumption that scientific theory building is underdetermined by the available empirical data. Several arguments are presented, which suggest a devaluation of this ‘principle of scientific underdetermination’ in the context of string theory. An altered conception of sc…
On the Conflicting Assessments of the Current Status of String Theory
The current status of string theory is assessed quite differently by most of the theory's exponents than by the majority of physicists in other fields. While the former tend to have a high degree of trust in string theory's viability, the latter largely share a substantially more skeptical point of view. This article argues that the controversy can be best understood in terms of a paradigmatic rift between the two sides over their understandings …
Against the empirical viability of the Deutsch–Wallace–Everett approach to quantum mechanics
Many worlds: Decoherent or incoherent
Higgs Discovery and the Look Elsewhere Effect
The discovery of the Higgs particle required a signal of 5 σ significance. The rigid application of that condition is a convention that disregards more specific aspects of the given experiment. In particular, it does not account for the characteristics of the look elsewhere effect in the individual experimental context. The paper relates this aspect of data analysis to the question as to what extent theoretical reasoning should be admitted to pla…
The No Alternatives Argument
Scientific theories are hard to find, and once scientists have found a theory, H, they often believe that there are not many distinct alternatives to H. But is this belief justified? What should scientists believe about the number of alternatives to H, and how should they change these beliefs in the light of new evidence? These are some of the questions that we will address in this article. We also ask under which conditions failure to find an al…
String dualities and empirical equivalence
Bayesian perspectives on the discovery of the Higgs particle
A philosophical look at the discovery the Higgs boson
Delimiting the Unconceived
It has been argued in Dawid (String theory and the scientific method, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, [4]) that physicists at times generate substantial trust in an empirically unconfirmed theory based on observations that lie beyond the theory’s intended domain. A crucial role in the reconstruction of this argument of “non-empirical confirmation” is played by limitations to scientific underdetermination. The present paper discusses the qu…
The no miracles argument without the base rate fallacy
According to an argument by Colin Howson, the no-miracles argument (NMA) is contingent on committing the base-rate fallacy and is therefore bound to fail. We demonstrate that Howson’s argument only applies to one of two versions of the NMA. The other version, which resembles the form in which the argument was initially presented by Putnam and Boyd, remains unaffected by his line of reasoning. We provide a formal reconstruction of that version of …
The role of meta-empirical theory assessment in the acceptance of atomism
The universal acceptance of atomism in physics and chemistry in the early 20th century went along with an altered view on the epistemic status of microphysical conjectures. Contrary to the prevalent understanding during the 19th century, on the new view unobservable objects could be 'discovered'. It is argued in the present paper that this shift can be connected to the implicit integration of elements of meta-empirical theory assessment into the …
Mond and meta-empirical theory assessment
While $$\Lambda $$ Λ CDM has emerged as the standard model of cosmology, a small group of physicists defends modified newtonian dynamics (MOND) as an alternative view on cosmology. Exponents of MOND have employed a broad, at times explicitly philosophical, conceptual perspective in arguing their case. This paper offers reasons why that MONDian defense has been ineffective. First, we argue that the defense is ineffective according to Popperian or …
Meta-empirical confirmation: Addressing three points of criticism
Epistemic Separability and Everettian Branches: A Critique of Sebens and Carroll
We discuss the proposal by Sebens and Carroll to derive the Born rule in Everettian quantum mechanics from a principle they call ‘ESP-QM’. We argue that the proposal fails: ESP-QM is not, as Sebens and Carroll argue, a ‘less general version’ of an independently plausible principle, ESP, and can only be motivated by the empirical success of quantum mechanics, including use of the Born rule. Therefore, ESP-QM cannot have the status of a meta-theore…
A bayesian model of credence in low energy supersymmetry
We carry out a quantitative Bayesian analysis of the evolution of credences in low energy supersymmetry (SUSY) in light of the most relevant empirical data. The analysis is based on the assumption that observers apply principles of optimism or pessimism about theory building in a coherent way. On this basis, we provide a rough assessment of the current range of plausible credences in low energy SUSY and determine in which way data from the Large …
Decoherence and Probability
One cannot justifiably presuppose the physical salience of structures derived via decoherence theory based upon an entirely uninterpreted use of the quantum formalism. Non-probabilistic accounts of the emergence of probability via decoherence are unconvincing. An alternative account of the emergence of probability involves the combination of a partially interpreted decoherence model and an averaging of observables with respect to a positive-defin…
Does the No Alternatives Argument Need Gerrymandering to Be Significant
In a recent paper, Tushar Menon has argued that the no-alternatives argument can only be significant if the priors for numbers of alternatives are tuned in an implausible way (gerrymandered, as he calls it). In this paper, I demonstrate that priors needed for making a no-alternatives argument significant are in line with what can be plausibly assumed in a successful research field
Non-empirical physics from a historical perspective: New pathways in history and philosophy of physics
Epistemology (14 works) · Philosophy (14 works) · Physics (12 works) · Computer Science (10 works) · Philosophy and History of Science (10 works) · Theoretical physics (10 works) · Philosophy of science (9 works) · Mathematics (8 works) · Quantum Mechanics and Applications (6 works) · Metaphysics (5 works)