Rafael Reuveny
Biographic Data
| ID | 108133 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Rafael Reuveny |
| GIVEN NAMES | Rafael |
| FAMILY NAME | Reuveny |
| SIGNATURE | REUVENY R |
| AFFILIATIONS | Indiana University |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 55 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 867 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 54 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1996 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 13 |
Economic Development and Warlikeness
Thinkers have offered four theories for the impact of a state’s rising economic development (or riches) on its international warlikeness or proclivity to fight any other state over a dispute. As a state develops it becomes: less warlike; more warlike; first more and then less warlike; or it keeps its warlikeness throughout. Most empirical studies treated riches as a control variable. Extant results painted a mixed picture. We outline prior theore…
Climate-related migration and population health: Social science-oriented dynamic simulation model
This work shows we can start developing DSMs to understand climate migration and public health by examining each case with its own inputs. Validation of our pilot model suggests we can use it as intended. We lay a path to making it more realistic for policy analysis
On revolt and endogenous economic policy in autocratic regimes
Reconsidering trade and conflict simultaneity: The risk of emphasizing technique over substance
Goenner ( Conflict Management and Peace Science, 28(5): 1–20, 2011) criticizes the simultaneous equations regression model (SEM) of bilateral trade flows (BT) and militarized interstate disputes (MID) developed by Keshk, Pollins and Reuveny ( Journal of Politics 66(4): 1155–1179, 2004) and extended by Keshk, Reuveny and Pollins ( Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(1): 1–20, 2010). Like Hegre, Oneal and Russett ( Journal of Peace Research 4…
On conflict over natural resources
Does trade prevent or promote interstate conflict initiation
Competing theories argue, respectively, that more trade reduces, increases, or does not affect interstate military conflict. We offer a new general theory on how trade affects conflict, which encompasses the liberal logic and the neo-Marxist/neo-mercantilist mechanism of asymmetric dependence and offers alternative explanations to the effects predicted by the bargaining and classical realist approaches. If a country expects its conflict toward a …
Coping with Terrorism: Origins, Escalation, Counterstrategies, and Responses
Trade and Conflict: Proximity, Country Size, and Measures
The effect of trade on military conflict is one of the most important questions in international relations. Liberals argue that trade brings peace, neo-realists and neo-Marxists reason that trade brings conflict, while classical realists contend that trade has no impact on conflict. This article investigates theoretically and empirically some of the most important issues that remain in this literature: the roles of geographical proximity, country…
The effect of warfare on the environment
Does warfare affect the environment? This question has received some theoretical and empirical attention, but none of the extant studies has employed large-N statistical models. This article theorizes the possible effects of warfare on the environment and estimates large-N statistical models of these effects on CO2 emissions per capita, NOX emissions per capita, the rate of change in forested area, and a composite indicator of environmental stres…
Democracy and Development
INTRODUCTION The effect of democracy on economic development has captivated many thinkers. De Tocqueville (1835) and Schumpeter (1942), for example, believe democracy provides the social securities required for development. Hayek (1944) argues that democracies exhibit relatively less unrest and political instability, promoting development. Friedman (1962) asserts that democracy promotes development by keeping state power in check. North (1990) ex…
Democracy and Economic Openness in an Interconnected System: Complex transformations
In this book, Quan Li and Rafael Reuveny combine the social scientific approach with a broad, interdisciplinary scope to address some of the most intriguing and important political, economic, and environmental issues of our times. Their book employs formal and statistical methods to study the interactions of economic globalization, democratic governance, income inequality, economic development, military violence, and environmental degradation. In…
Climatic natural disasters, political risk, and international trade
Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s
Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intensify during the 21st century. The exact distribution of impacts will likely be complex in nature. Although some areas may exhibit benefits, many areas will likely experience environmental decline. The objective of this article is to answer the following question: What are the potential implications of deteriorating environmental conditions for human mi…
Southern Democracy in the Long Run: A Systemic Analysis
This paper extends the leadership-long cycle systemic perspective, which so far has tended to focus on major power, rise-and-decline dynamics and global war, to explain Southern democratization. Unlike studies of democratization at the national level of analysis, we conduct a systemic level analysis, with a specific focus on the global South. Our extension the leadership-long cycle perspective predicts that Southern democracy will be driven, in p…
Uneven Economic Growth and the World Economy’s North-South Stratification
The liberal formula for peace and prosperity in the 21st century involves substantial convergence in economic growth rates between the affluent North and the poor South, facilitating a decrease in the global North–South gap. This diminished developmental gap should lead to reduced conflict within the South and between the North and South. The problem is that long-term world economic growth is stimulated in part by intermittent upsurges in radical…
Ecomigration and Violent Conflict: Case Studies and Public Policy Implications
The Effects of Liberalism on the Terrestrial Environment
In recent decades, many countries have adopted, to various degrees, the ideologies of commercial and republican liberalism. One salient aspect of the spread of commercial liberalism in the world has been the growth in international trade. The spread of republican liberalism has manifested itself by the rise in the level of democracy in countries over time. What are the implications of trade and democracy for the terrestrial environment? Two bodie…
The Limits of Economic Globalization: Still Another North–South Cleavage
Economic globalization has loomed, at least for some, as the world system's next crisis carrier. Globalization is said to accelerate economic growth rates, compel closer economic interactions throughout the globe, and trample on the distinctiveness of local cultures and sovereignty. While we accept the existence of economic globalization, our question in this article is whether it, or at least one important dimension of it, is truly a `global' pr…
Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict
The fate of Easter Island: The limits of resource management institutions
The systems dynamics of endogenous population growth in a renewable resource-based growth model
Democracy and Environmental Degradation
In a relatively small but growing body of literature in political science and environmental studies, scholars debate the effect of democracy on environmental degradation. Some theorists claim that democracy reduces environmental degradation. Others argue that democracy may not reduce environmental degradation or may even harm the environment. Empirical evidence thus far has been limited and conflicting. This article seeks to address the democracy…
Economic Globalization and Civil War
In recent decades, the number of countries with ongoing civil wars and the share of these countries in the international system have increased dramatically. At the same time, the scope of economic globalization has also increased. Are these trends related? The theoretical literature on the determinants of civil wars presents conflicting views about the effects of globalization on such wars. One view expects economic globalization to reduce the li…
Endogenous Technological Progress and the Malthusian Trap: Could Simon and Boserup Have Saved Easter Island
Gods, Guns, and Globalization: Religious Radicalism and International Political Economy
Is it accurate to equate "fundamentalism" with antimodernism? What explains the growing importance of religious activists in world politics? Guns, Gods, and Globalization explores the multifaceted phenomenon of religious resurgence, ranging from the Christian right in the U.S. to ethnonationalist movements across North Africa and Asia. The authors' focus on the complex relationship between religious revivalism and globalization results in a nuanc…
Democracy and Environmental Degradation
In a relatively small but growing body of literature in political science and environmental studies, scholars debate the effect of democracy on environmental degradation. Some theorists claim that democracy reduces environmental degradation. Others argue that democracy may not reduce environmental degradation or may even harm the environment. Empirical evidence thus far has been limited and conflicting. This article seeks to address the democracy…
Trade Still Follows the Flag: The Primacy of Politics in a Simultaneous Model of Interdependence and Armed Conflict
While many scholars have posited a simultaneous relationship between trade and conflict, very few empirical studies have specified the relationship as such. Those that did employed samples that were relatively limited in spatial-temporal coverage. None have employed conflict indicators based on Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data due to the difficulty of including discrete dependent variables in a simultaneous equation framework. We overcom…
Economic Openness, Democracy, and Income Inequality: An Empirical Analysis
Scholars have studied effects of economic openness and democracy on national income inequality in two literatures. In democracy studies, scholars agree democracy reduces inequality but empirical evidence is ambiguous. In globalization studies, effects of economic openness on inequality are debated but have not been rigorously examined. This article is the first systematic statistical study of the effects of both economic openness and democracy on…
Economic Globalization and Democracy: An Empirical Analysis
The theoretical literature presents conflicting expectations about the effect of globalization on national democratic governance. One view expects globalization to enhance democracy; a second argues the opposite; a third argues globalization does not necessarily affect democracy. Progress in explaining how globalization affects democracy requires confronting these theoretical positions with data. We assess empirically the effects of globalization…
Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict
International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality
Economic Globalization and Civil War
In recent decades, the number of countries with ongoing civil wars and the share of these countries in the international system have increased dramatically. At the same time, the scope of economic globalization has also increased. Are these trends related? The theoretical literature on the determinants of civil wars presents conflicting views about the effects of globalization on such wars. One view expects economic globalization to reduce the li…
The Joint Democracy-Dyadic Conflict Nexus: A Simultaneous Equations Model
Many statistical studies in international relations investigate the claim that democracies do not fight one another. Virtually all of these studies employ a single-equation design, where the dependent variable measures the presence or absence of a dyadic militarized interstate dispute (MID). A separate group of studies argues that conflict affects democracy and that its effect could be positive or negative. By and large, these two bodies of liter…
Bilateral Import, Export, and Conflict/Cooperation Simultaneity
A mathematical model of dyadic trade and the level of political conflict/cooperation is developed and empirically tested. The model extends the literature in three ways. First, the bilateral trade quantities and the level of conflict/cooperation are simultaneously determined. Second, the commonly used unitary state actor is replaced by a government, an exporter, and an importer in each country in a dyad. Third, action-reaction conflict/cooperatio…
Bilateral Trade and Political Conflict/Cooperation: Do Goods Matter
This article investigates Granger causality between political conflict/cooperation and bilateral trade. The measures of conflict/cooperation are constructed by accumulating daily events and splicing the two datasets of the Conflict and Peace Data Bank and the World Events Interaction Survey. Trade data from the United Nations include ten commodity groups as well as total trade. Quarterly data are analyzed from the very early 1970s to the early 19…
International Conflict and Cooperation: Splicing Copdab and Weis Series
The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) data from 1948 to 1978 and the World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) data since 1966 are the two events data sets that are most widely used. Whether or not the two series are compatible has been much debated in the literature. This article investigates the compatibility between the two series by using several statistical tests and time series analysis methodologies for each of six dyads. For those dyads …
Trade and Conflict: Proximity, Country Size, and Measures
The effect of trade on military conflict is one of the most important questions in international relations. Liberals argue that trade brings peace, neo-realists and neo-Marxists reason that trade brings conflict, while classical realists contend that trade has no impact on conflict. This article investigates theoretically and empirically some of the most important issues that remain in this literature: the roles of geographical proximity, country…
Climatic natural disasters, political risk, and international trade
World Economic Growth, Northern Antagonism, and North-south Conflict
The distribution of wealth in the world is manifested by the polarization of a rich North and a poor South. Is the North-South conflict increasing or decreasing, and does it depend on such variables as major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and world prosperity, as some schools of thought maintain? Focusing on these questions from a leadership-long cycle perspective suggests several hypotheses about the interrelationships between global e…
Conflict and Renewable Resources
The economic literature on conflict employs a static, game-theoretic framework developed by Jack Hirshleifer. The authors introduce conflict dynamics into a model with two rival groups, each dependent on a single contested renewable resource. The model is based on two stylized facts: conflict often arises over scarce renewable resources, and those resources often lack well-defined and/or enforceable property rights. In each period, groups allocat…
Fundamentalist colonialism: The geopolitics of Israeli-Palestinian conflict
Leading sectors, lead economies, and economic growth
In the literature on international political economy, some approaches to long-term economic growth and global political-economic leadership assume the intermittent presence of a singular lead economy. Among other things, the lead economy generates radical innovations in commercial and industrial leading sectors that serve as a platform for global political leadership. The innovations drive the lead economy's own growth, diffuse to the rest of the…
Resource Scarcity and Conflict in Developing Countries
As time passes, renewable resource scarcities are becoming more common. There is increasing evidence that these scarcities are a causal factor in political conflict, especially in developing countries. We present a simple dynamic model of renewable resource and population interaction featuring the possibility of conflict triggered by per capita resource scarcity. In the model, conflict diverts resources away from resource harvesting, increases th…
Does Environmental Degradation Influence Migration? Emigration to Developed Countries in the Late 1980s and 1990s
Objective. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that climate change will intensify during the 21st century. The exact distribution of impacts will likely be complex in nature. Although some areas may exhibit benefits, many areas will likely experience environmental decline. The objective of this article is to answer the following question: What are the potential implications of deteriorating environmental conditions for human mi…
Ecomigration and Violent Conflict: Case Studies and Public Policy Implications
The effect of warfare on the environment
Does warfare affect the environment? This question has received some theoretical and empirical attention, but none of the extant studies has employed large-N statistical models. This article theorizes the possible effects of warfare on the environment and estimates large-N statistical models of these effects on CO2 emissions per capita, NOX emissions per capita, the rate of change in forested area, and a composite indicator of environmental stres…
Uneven Economic Growth and the World Economy’s North-South Stratification
The liberal formula for peace and prosperity in the 21st century involves substantial convergence in economic growth rates between the affluent North and the poor South, facilitating a decrease in the global North–South gap. This diminished developmental gap should lead to reduced conflict within the South and between the North and South. The problem is that long-term world economic growth is stimulated in part by intermittent upsurges in radical…
Economic Growth, Environmental Scarcity, and Conflict
The global population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, intensifying “environmental scarcity,” a term used here to denote environmental degradation and pressure on renewable and nonrenewable natural resources. Currently, environmental scarcity is more pronounced in less developed countries (LDCs) than in developed countries (DCs). Many argue that this scarcity is increasingly promoting armed conflicts in LDCs. The conventional solution t…
Exploring the North–South Gap Longitudinally
Previous studies on economic convergence have been handicapped by the lack of sufficient serial data. Real GDP per capita are now available for 56 states. With some interpolation, we create series from 1870 to 1992 for Northern (developed countries) and Southern (lesser developed countries) aggregates. The data are explored by extending the leadership-long cycle perspective to deal with convergence. We find that North–South inequalities, at least…
Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War: The U.S. Case
Focusing on an initial and potentially expandable four-variable model combining leading sector innovation, leading sector concentration, naval capability concentration, and military preparation for warfare, a vector autoregression analysis of U.S. data for the 1801-1992 period reveals a substantial degree of interrelationship. The two leading sector variables “Granger cause” the two military-political variables (naval capability concentration and…
International Conflict and Cooperation: Splicing Copdab and Weis Series
The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) data from 1948 to 1978 and the World Events Interaction Survey (WEIS) data since 1966 are the two events data sets that are most widely used. Whether or not the two series are compatible has been much debated in the literature. This article investigates the compatibility between the two series by using several statistical tests and time series analysis methodologies for each of six dyads. For those dyads …
International Trade, Political Conflict/Cooperation, and Granger Causality
The timing of protectionism
The development of a new data set on the 1800–1990 average nominal tariff rates of five of the system's most important traders (Britain, France, the United States, Germany and Japan) permits a new empirical examination of alternative explanations of protectionism. Seven models, with various emphases on hegemony, business cycles, war shocks and economic growth, are used to generate nine schedules of expected changes in the direction of tariff rate…
Democracy, credibility, and sound economics: The Israeli hyperinflation
Free Trade and Arms Races
To examine the effect of free trade between two potential political rivals on their respective accumulation of weapons, the authors use a model in which utility maximization, the economics of trade and comparative advantage, production of weapons and consumption goods, depreciation of weapons stocks, technological spillover from production to national security, and the accumulation of capital are represented in an infinite horizon setting. In a n…
Tariffs and Trade Fluctuations: Does Protectionism Matter as Much as We Think
Despite the widespread assumption that tariffs reduce trade volume in the short term, it is conceivable that long-term expansion and contractions in trade actually drive tariff levels. A Granger causality analysis performed on British, U.S., French, German, Japanese, and a systematic aggregate data on GDP-tariff levels encompassing the 1854–1990 period finds mixed support for both the short- and long-term interpretations. In general, the antecede…
Bilateral Trade and Political Conflict/Cooperation: Do Goods Matter
This article investigates Granger causality between political conflict/cooperation and bilateral trade. The measures of conflict/cooperation are constructed by accumulating daily events and splicing the two datasets of the Conflict and Peace Data Bank and the World Events Interaction Survey. Trade data from the United Nations include ten commodity groups as well as total trade. Quarterly data are analyzed from the very early 1970s to the early 19…
The Afghanistan war and the breakdown of the Soviet Union
The breakdown of the Soviet Union surprised most scholars of international relations, comparative politics, and Soviet politics. Existing explanations attribute the breakdown of the Soviet Union to the reformist leadership of Gorbachev, and/or to systemic factors. These explanations do not focus on the key contribution of the war in Afghanistan. This is surprising since many scholars view wars as key causal factors in empire breakdown and regime …
Israeli‐Palestinian Economic Interdependence Reconsidered
The Political Economy of Israeli‐Palestinian Interdependence
The Israeli and Palestinian economies are asymmetrically interdependent. Some scholars argue that the Palestinian economy cannot be viable alone. Others believe that economic links with Israel will promote peace. Supporters of separation argue that these links distort Palestinian development. I show that the current interdependence is associated with a cyclical Israeli‐Palestinian violence and Palestinian economic decline. Assuming that an indepe…
Economic Innovation, Systemic Leadership, and Military Preparations for War: The U.S. Case
Focusing on an initial and potentially expandable four-variable model combining leading sector innovation, leading sector concentration, naval capability concentration, and military preparation for warfare, a vector autoregression analysis of U.S. data for the 1801-1992 period reveals a substantial degree of interrelationship. The two leading sector variables “Granger cause” the two military-political variables (naval capability concentration and…
Easter Island: Historical anecdote or warning for the future
An exploration of multi‐country political conflict/cooperation interdependence
Previous investigations of dynamic conflict actions and reactions among major countries have generally assumed the unit of analysis to be either a dyad or a triad. Our objective of the papa‐is to explore this assumption. The empirical analysis employs quarterly political conflict/cooperation among the United States, the (former) Soviet Union, China, Japan, and (West) Germany from 1950 to 1991. The model consists of a system of dynamic multiple re…
Resource Scarcity and Conflict in Developing Countries
As time passes, renewable resource scarcities are becoming more common. There is increasing evidence that these scarcities are a causal factor in political conflict, especially in developing countries. We present a simple dynamic model of renewable resource and population interaction featuring the possibility of conflict triggered by per capita resource scarcity. In the model, conflict diverts resources away from resource harvesting, increases th…
Disaggregated Bilateral Trade and Conflict: Exploring Propositions in a Simultaneous Framework
Explaining Protectionism: 17 Perspectives and One Common Denominator
Leading sectors, lead economies, and economic growth
In the literature on international political economy, some approaches to long-term economic growth and global political-economic leadership assume the intermittent presence of a singular lead economy. Among other things, the lead economy generates radical innovations in commercial and industrial leading sectors that serve as a platform for global political leadership. The innovations drive the lead economy's own growth, diffuse to the rest of the…
Conflict and Renewable Resources
The economic literature on conflict employs a static, game-theoretic framework developed by Jack Hirshleifer. The authors introduce conflict dynamics into a model with two rival groups, each dependent on a single contested renewable resource. The model is based on two stylized facts: conflict often arises over scarce renewable resources, and those resources often lack well-defined and/or enforceable property rights. In each period, groups allocat…
Bilateral Import, Export, and Conflict/Cooperation Simultaneity
A mathematical model of dyadic trade and the level of political conflict/cooperation is developed and empirically tested. The model extends the literature in three ways. First, the bilateral trade quantities and the level of conflict/cooperation are simultaneously determined. Second, the commonly used unitary state actor is replaced by a government, an exporter, and an importer in each country in a dyad. Third, action-reaction conflict/cooperatio…
Economic Growth, Environmental Scarcity, and Conflict
The global population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, intensifying “environmental scarcity,” a term used here to denote environmental degradation and pressure on renewable and nonrenewable natural resources. Currently, environmental scarcity is more pronounced in less developed countries (LDCs) than in developed countries (DCs). Many argue that this scarcity is increasingly promoting armed conflicts in LDCs. The conventional solution t…
Set for Instability: Prospects for Conflict and Cooperation between Israel and Jordan
This article argues that since 1949, the relationship between Israel and Jordan has depended primarily on their interactions with a Third Actor--identified as Egypt from 1949 to the mid-1970s, and as the Palestinians thereafter. Conflict between Israel and Jordan always follows conflict one or both nations have with the Third Actor. The analysis suggests a cyclical and hierarchical allegiance condition, in which Jordan switches from an alliance w…
World Economic Growth, Northern Antagonism, and North-south Conflict
The distribution of wealth in the world is manifested by the polarization of a rich North and a poor South. Is the North-South conflict increasing or decreasing, and does it depend on such variables as major power conflict, intra-Northern conflict, and world prosperity, as some schools of thought maintain? Focusing on these questions from a leadership-long cycle perspective suggests several hypotheses about the interrelationships between global e…
Systematic Leadership and Trade Openness
Studies of hegemonic stability tend to specify periods when hegemony is present or absent in the world system. Periods in which hegemony is present are expected to exhibit openness for trade. Periods in which hegemony is absent should be associated with trade closure. Partially as a consequence of this nominal measurement strategy, scholars continue to be unsure whether hegemony and systemic leadership are linked to the openness of the world's tr…
Exploring the North–South Gap Longitudinally
Previous studies on economic convergence have been handicapped by the lack of sufficient serial data. Real GDP per capita are now available for 56 states. With some interpolation, we create series from 1870 to 1992 for Northern (developed countries) and Southern (lesser developed countries) aggregates. The data are explored by extending the leadership-long cycle perspective to deal with convergence. We find that North–South inequalities, at least…
The Joint Democracy-Dyadic Conflict Nexus: A Simultaneous Equations Model
Many statistical studies in international relations investigate the claim that democracies do not fight one another. Virtually all of these studies employ a single-equation design, where the dependent variable measures the presence or absence of a dyadic militarized interstate dispute (MID). A separate group of studies argues that conflict affects democracy and that its effect could be positive or negative. By and large, these two bodies of liter…
Economics (45 works) · Political science (43 works) · Politics (27 works) · Law (24 works) · Development economics (20 works) · Law (17 works) · Sociology (14 works) · Political economy (12 works) · Global trade and economics (11 works) · International economics (11 works)