Joseph B Kadane
Biographic Data
| ID | 1114393 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Joseph B Kadane |
| GIVEN NAMES | Joseph B |
| FAMILY NAME | Kadane |
| SIGNATURE | KADANE J B |
| AFFILIATIONS | Carnegie Mellon University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1548-5912 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 26 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 81 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 26 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1966 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
Finite Additivity, Complete Additivity, and the Comparative Principle
In the longstanding foundational debate whether to require that probability is countably additive, in addition to being finitely additive, those who resist the added condition raise two concerns that we take up in this paper. (1) Existence : Settings where no countably additive probability exists though finitely additive probabilities do. (2) Complete Additivity : Where reasons for countable additivity don’t stop there. Those reasons entail compl…
Deceptive Credences
A familiar defense of Personalist or Subjective Bayesian theory is that, under a variety of sufficient conditions, asymptotically—with increasing shared evidence—almost surely, each non-extreme, countably additive Bayesian opinion, when updated by conditionalization, converges to certainty that is veridical about the truth/falsity of hypotheses of interest. Then, with probability 1 over possible evidential histories, personal probabilities track …
Stockouts and Restocking
Suppliers and retailers typically do not have identical incentives to avoid stockouts (lost sales due to the lack of product availability on the shelf). Thus, the supplier needs to monitor the retailer’s restocking efforts with the available data. We empirically assess stockout levels using only shipment and sales data that is readily available to the supplier. The model distinguishes between store stockouts (zero inventory in the store) and shel…
Standards for Modest Bayesian Credences
Gordon Belot argues that Bayesian theory is epistemologically immodest. In response, we show that the topological conditions that underpin his criticisms of asymptotic Bayesian conditioning are self-defeating. They require extreme a priori credences regarding, for example, the limiting behavior of observed relative frequencies. We offer a different explication of Bayesian modesty using a goal of consensus: rival scientific opinions should be resp…
Certainty & Uncertainty in Reporting Fingerprint Evidence
Everyone knows that fingerprint evidence can be extremely incriminating. What is less clear is whether the way that a fingerprint examiner describes that evidence influences the weight lay jurors assign to it. This essay describes an experiment testing how lay people respond to different presentations of fingerprint evidence in a hypothetical criminal case. We find that people attach more weight to the evidence when the fingerprint examiner indic…
Sleeping Beauty’s Credences
The Sleeping Beauty problem has spawned a debate between “thirders” and “halfers” who draw conflicting conclusions about Sleeping Beauty's credence that a coin lands heads. Our analysis is based on a probability model for what Sleeping Beauty knows at each time during the experiment. We show that conflicting conclusions result from different modeling assumptions that each group makes. Our analysis uses a standard “Bayesian” account of rational be…
Homicide rates in rural southern Norway 1300–1569
Fairly good data enable us to estimate mid-16th-century homicide rates (to between 10 and 15 per 100,000). Data from the earlier centuries, documents from the standardized process for homicides, and occasional other mentions are at first sight not promising, but can be treated with advanced statistical methods. With these, the homicide rates for the region and period in question can be estimated to between 8 and 13 per 100,000 for the part of Nor…
Seeing Things
The Effect of Exchange Rates on Statistical Decisions
Statistical decision theory, whether based on Bayesian principles or other concepts such as minimax or admissibility, relies on minimizing expected loss or maximizing expected utility. Loss and utility functions are generally treated as unit-less numerical measures of value for consequences. Here, we address the issue of the units in which loss and utility are settled and the implications that those units have on the rankings of potential decisio…
Coherent choice functions under uncertainty
Seeing Things
Hierarchical Models for Employment Decisions
Federal law prohibits discrimination in employment decisions against persons in certain protected categories. The common method for measuring discrimination involves a comparison of some aggregate statistic for protected and non-protected individuals. This approach is open to question when employment decisions are made over an extended time period. We show how to use hierarchical proportional hazards models (Cox regression models) to analyze such…
To What Degree Does Food Assistance Help Poor Households Acquire Enough Food? A Joint Examination of Public and Private Sources of Food Assistance
We study the efficacy of public and private food assistance in alleviating food shortages among poor households by jointly considering the effects of all major forms of domestic food assistance–the Food Stamp Program, WIC, and food pantries. The analyses are based on detailed data collected in 1993 from 398 low-income households in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. We examine the effect each of the widely available forms of food assistance has on h…
Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies
A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate w…
A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing
It has long been known that the practice of testing all hypotheses at the same level (such as 0.05), regardless of the distribution of the data, is not consistent with Bayesian expected utility maximization. According to de Finetti's “Dutch Book” argument, procedures that are not consistent with expected utility maximization are incoherent and they lead to gambles that are sure to lose no matter what happens. In this paper, we use a method to mea…
When Several Bayesians Agree that There will be no Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion
When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment (or a sequence of experiments) to make certain that, given the experimental outcome(s), the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspecti…
Sequential Voting with Endogenous Voter Forecasts
We investigate a sequential voting model in which voters' forecasts of outcomes on future issues are determined endogenously. Voters are assumed to make decisions in an environment in which future outcomes are uncertain. The uncertainty arises from two possible sources. Voters may be uncertain of other voters' preferences. In addition, events that occur before future issues are decided may affect voters' preferences on future votes. Information a…
Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits
The courts, with some important qualifications, have been reluctant to uphold tax assessments based on a review of only a sample of all transactions. In this article we argue that audit assessments based on appropriately drawn and analyzed statistical samples do not suffer from the defects that the courts have correctly concluded mar assessments based on nonstatistical samples. We do, however, argue that because of the inherent imprecision of ass…
Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits
The courts, with some important qualifications, have been reluctant to uphold tax assessments based on a review of only a sample of all transactions. In this article we argue that audit assessments based on appropriately drawn and analyzed statistical samples do not suffer from the defects that the courts have correctly concluded mar assessments based on nonstatistical samples. We do, however, argue that because of the inherent imprecision of ass…
On division of the question
"Reply to Leik's "Comment on Kadane and Lewis
Quantitative Content Analysis of the United Nations Seabed Debate
International arrangements for the uses of the ocean have been the subject of long debate within the United Nations since a speech made by Ambassador Arvid Pardo of Malta before the General Assembly in 1967. Issues in question include the method of delimiting the outer edge of the legal continental shelf; the spectrum of ocean arms control possibilities; proposals to create a declaration of principles governing the exploration for, and the exploi…
Rejoinder to Horvath
Horvath's Theory of Participation in Group Discussions
Horvath's theory of participation in discussion groups is compared to data from several studies. Both visual evidence of graphs of the parameter space and tests of significance indicate to us that the theory is weak in its description of the proportion of acts initiated by members of the group. This failure is important since the theory was apparently developed to explain this aspect of group discussions. In 1951, Bales, Strodtbeck, Mills and Ros…
The Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions
Joseph B. Kadane, Gordon H. Lewis, The Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions: An Empirical and Theoretical Reappraisal, American Sociological Review, Vol. 34, No. 5 (Oct., 1969), pp. 710-723
On division of the question
Coherent choice functions under uncertainty
The Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions
Joseph B. Kadane, Gordon H. Lewis, The Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions: An Empirical and Theoretical Reappraisal, American Sociological Review, Vol. 34, No. 5 (Oct., 1969), pp. 710-723
Quantitative Content Analysis of the United Nations Seabed Debate
International arrangements for the uses of the ocean have been the subject of long debate within the United Nations since a speech made by Ambassador Arvid Pardo of Malta before the General Assembly in 1967. Issues in question include the method of delimiting the outer edge of the legal continental shelf; the spectrum of ocean arms control possibilities; proposals to create a declaration of principles governing the exploration for, and the exploi…
Horvath's Theory of Participation in Group Discussions
Horvath's theory of participation in discussion groups is compared to data from several studies. Both visual evidence of graphs of the parameter space and tests of significance indicate to us that the theory is weak in its description of the proportion of acts initiated by members of the group. This failure is important since the theory was apparently developed to explain this aspect of group discussions. In 1951, Bales, Strodtbeck, Mills and Ros…
To What Degree Does Food Assistance Help Poor Households Acquire Enough Food? A Joint Examination of Public and Private Sources of Food Assistance
We study the efficacy of public and private food assistance in alleviating food shortages among poor households by jointly considering the effects of all major forms of domestic food assistance–the Food Stamp Program, WIC, and food pantries. The analyses are based on detailed data collected in 1993 from 398 low-income households in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. We examine the effect each of the widely available forms of food assistance has on h…
Standards for Modest Bayesian Credences
Gordon Belot argues that Bayesian theory is epistemologically immodest. In response, we show that the topological conditions that underpin his criticisms of asymptotic Bayesian conditioning are self-defeating. They require extreme a priori credences regarding, for example, the limiting behavior of observed relative frequencies. We offer a different explication of Bayesian modesty using a goal of consensus: rival scientific opinions should be resp…
Sleeping Beauty’s Credences
The Sleeping Beauty problem has spawned a debate between “thirders” and “halfers” who draw conflicting conclusions about Sleeping Beauty's credence that a coin lands heads. Our analysis is based on a probability model for what Sleeping Beauty knows at each time during the experiment. We show that conflicting conclusions result from different modeling assumptions that each group makes. Our analysis uses a standard “Bayesian” account of rational be…
A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing
It has long been known that the practice of testing all hypotheses at the same level (such as 0.05), regardless of the distribution of the data, is not consistent with Bayesian expected utility maximization. According to de Finetti's “Dutch Book” argument, procedures that are not consistent with expected utility maximization are incoherent and they lead to gambles that are sure to lose no matter what happens. In this paper, we use a method to mea…
When Several Bayesians Agree that There will be no Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion
When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment (or a sequence of experiments) to make certain that, given the experimental outcome(s), the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspecti…
Sequential Voting with Endogenous Voter Forecasts
We investigate a sequential voting model in which voters' forecasts of outcomes on future issues are determined endogenously. Voters are assumed to make decisions in an environment in which future outcomes are uncertain. The uncertainty arises from two possible sources. Voters may be uncertain of other voters' preferences. In addition, events that occur before future issues are decided may affect voters' preferences on future votes. Information a…
The Effect of Exchange Rates on Statistical Decisions
Statistical decision theory, whether based on Bayesian principles or other concepts such as minimax or admissibility, relies on minimizing expected loss or maximizing expected utility. Loss and utility functions are generally treated as unit-less numerical measures of value for consequences. Here, we address the issue of the units in which loss and utility are settled and the implications that those units have on the rankings of potential decisio…
Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies
A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate w…
"Reply to Leik's "Comment on Kadane and Lewis
Some Notes on the Estimation of the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Production Function
G. S. Maddala, Joseph B. Kadane, Some Notes on the Estimation of the Constant Elasticity of Substitution Production Function, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 3 (Aug., 1966), pp. 340-344
Rejoinder to Horvath
Horvath's Theory of Participation in Group Discussions
Horvath's theory of participation in discussion groups is compared to data from several studies. Both visual evidence of graphs of the parameter space and tests of significance indicate to us that the theory is weak in its description of the proportion of acts initiated by members of the group. This failure is important since the theory was apparently developed to explain this aspect of group discussions. In 1951, Bales, Strodtbeck, Mills and Ros…
The Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions
Joseph B. Kadane, Gordon H. Lewis, The Distribution of Participation in Group Discussions: An Empirical and Theoretical Reappraisal, American Sociological Review, Vol. 34, No. 5 (Oct., 1969), pp. 710-723
"Reply to Leik's "Comment on Kadane and Lewis
Quantitative Content Analysis of the United Nations Seabed Debate
International arrangements for the uses of the ocean have been the subject of long debate within the United Nations since a speech made by Ambassador Arvid Pardo of Malta before the General Assembly in 1967. Issues in question include the method of delimiting the outer edge of the legal continental shelf; the spectrum of ocean arms control possibilities; proposals to create a declaration of principles governing the exploration for, and the exploi…
On division of the question
Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits
The courts, with some important qualifications, have been reluctant to uphold tax assessments based on a review of only a sample of all transactions. In this article we argue that audit assessments based on appropriately drawn and analyzed statistical samples do not suffer from the defects that the courts have correctly concluded mar assessments based on nonstatistical samples. We do, however, argue that because of the inherent imprecision of ass…
Statistical Sampling in Tax Audits
The courts, with some important qualifications, have been reluctant to uphold tax assessments based on a review of only a sample of all transactions. In this article we argue that audit assessments based on appropriately drawn and analyzed statistical samples do not suffer from the defects that the courts have correctly concluded mar assessments based on nonstatistical samples. We do, however, argue that because of the inherent imprecision of ass…
Sequential Voting with Endogenous Voter Forecasts
We investigate a sequential voting model in which voters' forecasts of outcomes on future issues are determined endogenously. Voters are assumed to make decisions in an environment in which future outcomes are uncertain. The uncertainty arises from two possible sources. Voters may be uncertain of other voters' preferences. In addition, events that occur before future issues are decided may affect voters' preferences on future votes. Information a…
When Several Bayesians Agree that There will be no Reasoning to a Foregone Conclusion
When can a Bayesian investigator select an hypothesis H and design an experiment (or a sequence of experiments) to make certain that, given the experimental outcome(s), the posterior probability of H will be lower than its prior probability? We report an elementary result which establishes sufficient conditions under which this reasoning to a foregone conclusion cannot occur. Through an example, we discuss how this result extends to the perspecti…
Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies
A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate w…
A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing
It has long been known that the practice of testing all hypotheses at the same level (such as 0.05), regardless of the distribution of the data, is not consistent with Bayesian expected utility maximization. According to de Finetti's “Dutch Book” argument, procedures that are not consistent with expected utility maximization are incoherent and they lead to gambles that are sure to lose no matter what happens. In this paper, we use a method to mea…
Hierarchical Models for Employment Decisions
Federal law prohibits discrimination in employment decisions against persons in certain protected categories. The common method for measuring discrimination involves a comparison of some aggregate statistic for protected and non-protected individuals. This approach is open to question when employment decisions are made over an extended time period. We show how to use hierarchical proportional hazards models (Cox regression models) to analyze such…
To What Degree Does Food Assistance Help Poor Households Acquire Enough Food? A Joint Examination of Public and Private Sources of Food Assistance
We study the efficacy of public and private food assistance in alleviating food shortages among poor households by jointly considering the effects of all major forms of domestic food assistance–the Food Stamp Program, WIC, and food pantries. The analyses are based on detailed data collected in 1993 from 398 low-income households in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. We examine the effect each of the widely available forms of food assistance has on h…
Seeing Things
Coherent choice functions under uncertainty
Seeing Things
The Effect of Exchange Rates on Statistical Decisions
Statistical decision theory, whether based on Bayesian principles or other concepts such as minimax or admissibility, relies on minimizing expected loss or maximizing expected utility. Loss and utility functions are generally treated as unit-less numerical measures of value for consequences. Here, we address the issue of the units in which loss and utility are settled and the implications that those units have on the rankings of potential decisio…
Homicide rates in rural southern Norway 1300–1569
Fairly good data enable us to estimate mid-16th-century homicide rates (to between 10 and 15 per 100,000). Data from the earlier centuries, documents from the standardized process for homicides, and occasional other mentions are at first sight not promising, but can be treated with advanced statistical methods. With these, the homicide rates for the region and period in question can be estimated to between 8 and 13 per 100,000 for the part of Nor…
Sleeping Beauty’s Credences
The Sleeping Beauty problem has spawned a debate between “thirders” and “halfers” who draw conflicting conclusions about Sleeping Beauty's credence that a coin lands heads. Our analysis is based on a probability model for what Sleeping Beauty knows at each time during the experiment. We show that conflicting conclusions result from different modeling assumptions that each group makes. Our analysis uses a standard “Bayesian” account of rational be…
Stockouts and Restocking
Suppliers and retailers typically do not have identical incentives to avoid stockouts (lost sales due to the lack of product availability on the shelf). Thus, the supplier needs to monitor the retailer’s restocking efforts with the available data. We empirically assess stockout levels using only shipment and sales data that is readily available to the supplier. The model distinguishes between store stockouts (zero inventory in the store) and shel…
Standards for Modest Bayesian Credences
Gordon Belot argues that Bayesian theory is epistemologically immodest. In response, we show that the topological conditions that underpin his criticisms of asymptotic Bayesian conditioning are self-defeating. They require extreme a priori credences regarding, for example, the limiting behavior of observed relative frequencies. We offer a different explication of Bayesian modesty using a goal of consensus: rival scientific opinions should be resp…
Certainty & Uncertainty in Reporting Fingerprint Evidence
Everyone knows that fingerprint evidence can be extremely incriminating. What is less clear is whether the way that a fingerprint examiner describes that evidence influences the weight lay jurors assign to it. This essay describes an experiment testing how lay people respond to different presentations of fingerprint evidence in a hypothetical criminal case. We find that people attach more weight to the evidence when the fingerprint examiner indic…
Deceptive Credences
A familiar defense of Personalist or Subjective Bayesian theory is that, under a variety of sufficient conditions, asymptotically—with increasing shared evidence—almost surely, each non-extreme, countably additive Bayesian opinion, when updated by conditionalization, converges to certainty that is veridical about the truth/falsity of hypotheses of interest. Then, with probability 1 over possible evidential histories, personal probabilities track …
Computer Science (14 works) · Mathematics (14 works) · Economics (9 works) · Political science (8 works) · Econometrics (7 works) · Mathematical economics (7 works) · Philosophy (7 works) · Epistemology (6 works) · Law (6 works) · Psychology (6 works)