Espen Geelmuyden Rød
Biographic Data
| ID | 1417366 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Espen Geelmuyden Rød |
| GIVEN NAMES | Espen Geelmuyden |
| FAMILY NAME | Rød |
| SIGNATURE | RØD E G |
| AFFILIATIONS | Uppsala University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1976-6746 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 13 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 161 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 13 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 7 |
Fueling protest? Climate change mitigation, fuel prices and protest onset
Mitigating global warming requires a rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuels which form the foundation of modern economies. Fossil fuel reduction is crucial for minimizing future loss and damage associated with a changing climate, but a challenging task. In diverse contexts, climate-friendly policies that increased fuel prices have sparked massive, at times violent, protests, ultimately leading to a reversal of those policies. However, to what…
Introducing the MMAD Repressive Actors Dataset
We present the MMAD Repressive Actors Dataset (MMAD-RA). The MMAD-RA is a new data source that provides systematic information on the repressive actors present at protest events in autocracies, including their type, tactics, and level of violence. The data is temporally and geographically fine-grained, allowing for analysis between and within more than 60 countries from 2003 to 2012. The MMAD-RA enables analysis of the variation in repressive act…
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Protest is a low-intensity form of political conflict that can precipitate intrastate armed conflict. Data on protests should therefore be informative in systems that provide early warnings of armed conflict. However, since most protests do not escalate to armed conflict, we first need theory to inform our prediction models. We identify three theoretical explanations relating to protest-repression dynamics, political institutions and economic dev…
From bad to worse? How protest can foster armed conflict in autocracies
Many protest movements have brought down dictatorships and paved the way for democracy. However, protests can also foster large-scale violence at the level of civil war. How can we explain the development from protest to armed conflict? In this paper, we use geographically fine-grained data to examine how collective mobilization leads to civil war violence at the local level. We argue that two mechanisms can explain this. First, in a protest esca…
ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluatio…
The determinants of democracy: A sensitivity analysis
Numerous studies—operating with diverse model specifications, samples and empirical measures—suggest different economic, social, cultural, demographic, institutional and international determinants of democracy. We distinguish between democratization and democratic survival and test the sensitivities of 67 proposed determinants by varying the control variable set, democracy measure, and sample time period. Furthermore, we go beyond existing sensit…
The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies
In the aftermath of recent popular uprisings in dictatorships, many observers argued that information and communication technologies, notably the Internet, played a key role in the mobilization of political protest. This book unpacks when and under which circumstances Internet technology can benefit opposition activists aiming to mobilize protests, and when the technology plays into the hands of autocratic governments. Since autocratic government…
Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
This article presents ViEWS - a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided viole…
In the Spotlight: Analyzing Sequential Attention Effects in Protest Reporting
During waves of contention, international media attention can be of crucial importance for activists and protest participants. However, media attention is a scarce resource and the competition over news coverage is high. While some emphasize the agenda-setting power of news outlets and argue that receiving coverage is determined by factors outside the protest movement, others suggest a dynamic relationship between media attention and activism whe…
Cues to Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships
A large proportion of coup attempts in autocracies occur in the aftermath of elections, yet little systematic research exists on the topic. Drawing on recent literature on elections in autocracies, we present an argument to explain postelection coups. While we recognize that electoral institutions have the potential to stabilize autocracies, we illustrate that the election event can spark instability when incumbents reveal electoral weakness. Ele…
Empowering activists or autocrats? The Internet in authoritarian regimes
The reported role of social media in recent popular uprisings against Arab autocrats has fueled the notion of 'liberation technology', namely that information and communication technology (ICT) facilitates organization of antigovernment movements in autocracies. Less optimistic observers, on the other hand, contend that ICT is a tool of repression in the hands of autocrats, imposing further restrictions on political and social liberties. We inves…
Making uncertainty explicit: Separating reports and events in the coding of violence and contention
When coding events from media sources - as the majority of data projects do - different reports may oftentimes contain contradictory information. What do coders make of this? It is up to them to aggregate different reports into one coded event, and to supplement missing information based on other sources or their own background information. If not addressed properly, this may lead to a lack of replicability and to low reliability of the final dat…
Empowering activists or autocrats? The Internet in authoritarian regimes
The reported role of social media in recent popular uprisings against Arab autocrats has fueled the notion of 'liberation technology', namely that information and communication technology (ICT) facilitates organization of antigovernment movements in autocracies. Less optimistic observers, on the other hand, contend that ICT is a tool of repression in the hands of autocrats, imposing further restrictions on political and social liberties. We inves…
Cues to Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships
A large proportion of coup attempts in autocracies occur in the aftermath of elections, yet little systematic research exists on the topic. Drawing on recent literature on elections in autocracies, we present an argument to explain postelection coups. While we recognize that electoral institutions have the potential to stabilize autocracies, we illustrate that the election event can spark instability when incumbents reveal electoral weakness. Ele…
In the Spotlight: Analyzing Sequential Attention Effects in Protest Reporting
During waves of contention, international media attention can be of crucial importance for activists and protest participants. However, media attention is a scarce resource and the competition over news coverage is high. While some emphasize the agenda-setting power of news outlets and argue that receiving coverage is determined by factors outside the protest movement, others suggest a dynamic relationship between media attention and activism whe…
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
This article presents ViEWS - a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided viole…
Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes
The determinants of democracy: A sensitivity analysis
Numerous studies—operating with diverse model specifications, samples and empirical measures—suggest different economic, social, cultural, demographic, institutional and international determinants of democracy. We distinguish between democratization and democratic survival and test the sensitivities of 67 proposed determinants by varying the control variable set, democracy measure, and sample time period. Furthermore, we go beyond existing sensit…
Making uncertainty explicit: Separating reports and events in the coding of violence and contention
When coding events from media sources - as the majority of data projects do - different reports may oftentimes contain contradictory information. What do coders make of this? It is up to them to aggregate different reports into one coded event, and to supplement missing information based on other sources or their own background information. If not addressed properly, this may lead to a lack of replicability and to low reliability of the final dat…
Fueling protest? Climate change mitigation, fuel prices and protest onset
Mitigating global warming requires a rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuels which form the foundation of modern economies. Fossil fuel reduction is crucial for minimizing future loss and damage associated with a changing climate, but a challenging task. In diverse contexts, climate-friendly policies that increased fuel prices have sparked massive, at times violent, protests, ultimately leading to a reversal of those policies. However, to what…
ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluatio…
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Protest is a low-intensity form of political conflict that can precipitate intrastate armed conflict. Data on protests should therefore be informative in systems that provide early warnings of armed conflict. However, since most protests do not escalate to armed conflict, we first need theory to inform our prediction models. We identify three theoretical explanations relating to protest-repression dynamics, political institutions and economic dev…
From bad to worse? How protest can foster armed conflict in autocracies
Many protest movements have brought down dictatorships and paved the way for democracy. However, protests can also foster large-scale violence at the level of civil war. How can we explain the development from protest to armed conflict? In this paper, we use geographically fine-grained data to examine how collective mobilization leads to civil war violence at the local level. We argue that two mechanisms can explain this. First, in a protest esca…
Empowering activists or autocrats? The Internet in authoritarian regimes
The reported role of social media in recent popular uprisings against Arab autocrats has fueled the notion of 'liberation technology', namely that information and communication technology (ICT) facilitates organization of antigovernment movements in autocracies. Less optimistic observers, on the other hand, contend that ICT is a tool of repression in the hands of autocrats, imposing further restrictions on political and social liberties. We inves…
Making uncertainty explicit: Separating reports and events in the coding of violence and contention
When coding events from media sources - as the majority of data projects do - different reports may oftentimes contain contradictory information. What do coders make of this? It is up to them to aggregate different reports into one coded event, and to supplement missing information based on other sources or their own background information. If not addressed properly, this may lead to a lack of replicability and to low reliability of the final dat…
Cues to Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships
A large proportion of coup attempts in autocracies occur in the aftermath of elections, yet little systematic research exists on the topic. Drawing on recent literature on elections in autocracies, we present an argument to explain postelection coups. While we recognize that electoral institutions have the potential to stabilize autocracies, we illustrate that the election event can spark instability when incumbents reveal electoral weakness. Ele…
In the Spotlight: Analyzing Sequential Attention Effects in Protest Reporting
During waves of contention, international media attention can be of crucial importance for activists and protest participants. However, media attention is a scarce resource and the competition over news coverage is high. While some emphasize the agenda-setting power of news outlets and argue that receiving coverage is determined by factors outside the protest movement, others suggest a dynamic relationship between media attention and activism whe…
The Internet and Political Protest in Autocracies
In the aftermath of recent popular uprisings in dictatorships, many observers argued that information and communication technologies, notably the Internet, played a key role in the mobilization of political protest. This book unpacks when and under which circumstances Internet technology can benefit opposition activists aiming to mobilize protests, and when the technology plays into the hands of autocratic governments. Since autocratic government…
Fraud, grievances, and post-election protests in competitive authoritarian regimes
ViEWS: A political violence early-warning system
This article presents ViEWS - a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided viole…
The determinants of democracy: A sensitivity analysis
Numerous studies—operating with diverse model specifications, samples and empirical measures—suggest different economic, social, cultural, demographic, institutional and international determinants of democracy. We distinguish between democratization and democratic survival and test the sensitivities of 67 proposed determinants by varying the control variable set, democracy measure, and sample time period. Furthermore, we go beyond existing sensit…
ViEWS2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluatio…
Introducing the MMAD Repressive Actors Dataset
We present the MMAD Repressive Actors Dataset (MMAD-RA). The MMAD-RA is a new data source that provides systematic information on the repressive actors present at protest events in autocracies, including their type, tactics, and level of violence. The data is temporally and geographically fine-grained, allowing for analysis between and within more than 60 countries from 2003 to 2012. The MMAD-RA enables analysis of the variation in repressive act…
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Protest is a low-intensity form of political conflict that can precipitate intrastate armed conflict. Data on protests should therefore be informative in systems that provide early warnings of armed conflict. However, since most protests do not escalate to armed conflict, we first need theory to inform our prediction models. We identify three theoretical explanations relating to protest-repression dynamics, political institutions and economic dev…
From bad to worse? How protest can foster armed conflict in autocracies
Many protest movements have brought down dictatorships and paved the way for democracy. However, protests can also foster large-scale violence at the level of civil war. How can we explain the development from protest to armed conflict? In this paper, we use geographically fine-grained data to examine how collective mobilization leads to civil war violence at the local level. We argue that two mechanisms can explain this. First, in a protest esca…
Fueling protest? Climate change mitigation, fuel prices and protest onset
Mitigating global warming requires a rapid reduction in the use of fossil fuels which form the foundation of modern economies. Fossil fuel reduction is crucial for minimizing future loss and damage associated with a changing climate, but a challenging task. In diverse contexts, climate-friendly policies that increased fuel prices have sparked massive, at times violent, protests, ultimately leading to a reversal of those policies. However, to what…
Political science (12 works) · Law (11 works) · Politics (11 works) · Political economy (9 works) · Democracy (8 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (8 works) · Sociology (7 works) · Autocracy (6 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Law (6 works)