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Kenneth G Manton

Biographic Data

ID145395
NAMEKenneth G Manton
GIVEN NAMESKenneth G
FAMILY NAMEManton
SIGNATUREMANTON K G
AFFILIATIONSDuke University
VERIFIEDNo
TOTAL WORKS59
TOTAL CITATIONS462
AUTHOR COUNT59
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR1976
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2008
H-INDEX10
  • Cohort Changes in Active Life Expectancy in the U.S. Elderly Population: Experience From the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey

    Kenneth G Manton, Xiang Gu et al.•ARTICLE•The Journals of Gerontology…•2008•Cited by: 20•References: 3

    Our results, supporting the hypothesis of morbidity compression, indicate that younger cohorts of elderly persons are living longer in better health. The methods describe individual disability transitions and mortality and other factors associated with disability changes, making it possible to better evaluate interventions to promote future declines in disability

  • Medicare Cost Effects of Recent U.S. Disability Trends in the Elderly: Future Implications

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Vicki L Lamb et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Aging and Health•2007•Cited by: 6•References: 2

    Preserving health in the growing nondisabled population did not require increased health care expenditures

  • Long-Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Xiliang Gu et al.•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2006•Cited by: 9•References: 55

    Changes in life expectancy and in active life expectancy may have effects on the fiscal integrity of both the Social Security and Medicare programs. Analysis of the fiscal stability of these programs shows that the most serious problem may be the growth of Medicare expenditures projected to surpass, in about 2024, Social Security costs. This is aggravated by the associated rapid growth of the Medicaid program. To understand how the growth of Medi…

  • Co-Morbidity and Black and White Disparities in Health and Functional Status

    Open Access•Alvin E Headen, Kenneth G Manton et al.•ARTICLE•The Review of Black Political…•2004•Cited by: 1•References: 1

  • Forecasting the Nursing Home Population

    Kenneth G Manton, Darius Lakdawalla et al.•ARTICLE•Medical Care•2003•Cited by: 10•References: 7

    OBJECTIVE: To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage. METHODS: Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability. We use data from the 1992 to 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, which are individual-level dat…

  • Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Xiliang Gu•ARTICLE•Proceedings of the National…•2001

    Survey evidence through the early 1990s generally suggests a reduction in disability in the elderly population of the United States. Because the evidence is not fully consistent, several authors have speculated about whether disability declines will continue. This paper reports results from the 1999 National Long-Term Care Survey on disability trends from 1982 through 1999. It is found that disability continued to decline in the 1994 to 1999 peri…

  • Ecology of aging. Human ecology, special issue no. 8

    Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•American Journal of Human Biology•2001

  • Ecology of aging. Human ecology, special issue no. 8

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•American Journal of Human Biology•2001

  • Changes in Home Care Use by Disabled Elderly Persons: 1982-1994

    K Liu, Kenneth G Manton et al.•ARTICLE•The Journals of Gerontology…•2000•Cited by: 12•References: 2

    Use of formal sources of care by community disabled elderly residents increased, likely because of changes in the Medicare home health care benefits in 1989. Increased use of home health care was associated with the concurrent use of informal care

  • Multidimensional Disability/Mortality Trajectories at Ages 65 and Over: The Impact of State Dependence

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, K C Land•ARTICLE•Social Indicators Research•2000•Cited by: 4•References: 1

  • Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed Cohorts, 1982–1996

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, K C Land•ARTICLE•Demography•2000•Cited by: 15•References: 28

    An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality. The model is applied to data from the National Long Term Care Surveys of elderly persons in the years 1982 to 1996 to produce active life expectancy estimates based on completed-cohort life tables. At ages 65 and …

  • Biodemographic Trajectories of Longevity

    Open Access•James W Vaupel, James R Carey et al.•ARTICLE•Science•1998

    Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights—concerning the correlation of death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality—offer clues and suggest research on the failure of …

  • Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982–1994

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Larry Corder et al.•ARTICLE•Proceedings of the National…•1997

    Statistically significant declines in chronic disability prevalence rates were observed in the elderly United States population between the 1982 and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS). The 1994 NLTCS was used to investigate whether disability rate declines continued to 1994. The 1982, 1984, 1989, and 1994 NLTCS employ the same sample design and instrumentation so that trends in disability can be estimated with minimal sampling and measu…

  • Education-Specific Estimates of Life Expectancy and Age-Specific Disability in the U.S. Elderly Population 1982 to 1991

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Aging and Health•1997•Cited by: 9•References: 2

    The authors used mortality data for 1982 to 1991 linked to survey records from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys to calculate gender differences over age in mortality and functional status for high (8 or more years of schooling) and low (less than 8 years of schooling) education subgroups. Males and females with high education maintained better functioning at later ages than those with low education. The authors also found …

  • Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: Cohort and other determinants

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1997•Cited by: 27•References: 46

    Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have been periods during which the age- and gender-specific risks of particular causes of death have either increased or decreased. These periods partly reflect the persistent effects of population …

  • Prior and Current Costs in Capitated Health Plans: The Effects of Health Status at Enrollment

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Robert Newcomer et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Aging and Health•1996•References: 1

    We compared the prior and current costs of persons age 65 and older enrolling in a Social/Health Maintenance Organization in each of four sites with samples of persons using standard Medicare benefits in each site. Analyses were adjusted for individual health differences using case mix scores. Costs were examined in the year before S/HMO enrollment or prior to the sampling of a person using regular Medicare services as well as costs during the st…

  • Changes in Morbidity and Chronic Disability in the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys

    Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•The Journals of Gerontology…•1995•Cited by: 16

    We examined changes in the reported prevalence of 16 medical conditions in the U.S. population age 65 and above using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys. Changes in those disease prevalence rates were examined both as observed, and after standardizing for changes in the age, sex, and disability distributions in the U.S. elderly population between 1982 and 1989. We found significant declines in the net prevalence of…

  • Evaluating Long-Term Care Demonstrations in Real Time with Study Design and Plan Performance Interactions

    Kenneth G Manton, Robert Newcomer et al.•ARTICLE•Medical Care•1995

    The evaluation of long-term care demonstrations has to deal with complex organizational entities, with large, heterogeneous client populations that, during the course of study, may have to change features of their organization or operation. The implications of such "real-time" changes are discussed for analyses of the operation and performance of Social/Health Maintenance Organizations over a 5-year period (2 years of start-up and enrollment and …

  • A Method for Adjusting Capitation Payments to Managed Care Plans Using Multivariate Patterns of Health and Functioning: The Experience of Social/Health Maintenance Organizations

    Kenneth G Manton, Robert Newcomer et al.•ARTICLE•Medical Care•1994

    A multivariate procedure for identifying case-mix dimensions from discrete health variables is presented. Since the dimensions are generated only from health use data and not service use data, they can be used for adjust capitation rates to provide incentives to treat persons not currently well integrated in standard health care system (e.g., very ill persons, the uninsured) or to promote specific health outcomes. The procedure is illustrated wit…

  • Estimates of Change in Chronic Disability and Institutional Incidence and Prevalence Rates in the U.S Elderly Population From the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey

    Kenneth G Manton, Larry S Corder et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Gerontology•1993

    The U.S. elderly (65+) and oldest-old (85+) populations are growing rapidly which, combined with their high per capita acute and long-term care needs, will increase total U.S. health care needs. Also important in determining needs is how health and function change as mortality declines in the elderly population. Recent increases in adult life expectancy have been due to declines in stroke and heart disease mortality. There is controversy, however…

  • The Oldest Old

    Judith Treas, Richard M Suzman et al.•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•1993

  • The Oldest old

    David P Willis, Kenneth G Manton et al.•BOOK•The Oldest old•1992

  • Projections of disability consequences in Indonesia

    Open Access•John E Dowd, Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•Journal of Cross-Cultural…•1992•References: 4

  • The dynamics of aging: Measurement and intervention issues for health and function

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•Journal of Cross-Cultural…•1992•References: 29

  • The Use of Grade-of-Membership Techniques to Estimate Regression Relationships

    Kenneth G Manton, Max A Woodbury et al.•ARTICLE•Sociological Methodology•1992•Cited by: 3

    Kenneth G. Manton, Max A. Woodbury, Eric Stallard, Larry S. Corder, The Use of Grade-of-Membership Techniques to Estimate Regression Relationships, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 22 (1992), pp. 321-381

Next
  • The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality

    Open Access•James W Vaupel, Kenneth G Manton et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1979•Cited by: 194•References: 3

    Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of indiv…

  • Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: Cohort and other determinants

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1997•Cited by: 27•References: 46

    Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have been periods during which the age- and gender-specific risks of particular causes of death have either increased or decreased. These periods partly reflect the persistent effects of population …

  • Methods for Comparing the Mortality Experience of Heterogeneous Populations

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1981•Cited by: 25•References: 4

    Methods are presented which produce Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the degree of heterogeneity in individual mortality risks under a variety of assumptions about the age trajectory of those mortality risks. With these estimates of the degree of population heterogeneity it is possible to adjust comparisons of mortality risks across populations for the effects of population heterogeneity, differential mortality selection, and different age t…

  • Limits to Human Life Expectancy: Evidence, Prospects, and Implications

    Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•1991•Cited by: 21

    Identifying limits to human life expectancy and life span is difficult because survival is determined by the individuals physiology exogenous influences and their interaction over time. To explore theoretical limits the authors examine the life expectancy of selected populations with good health behavior and apply a multivariate risk-factor model to longitudinal data. The risk-factor model and the population data produce consistent estimates of a…

  • Cohort Changes in Active Life Expectancy in the U.S. Elderly Population: Experience From the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey

    Kenneth G Manton, Xiang Gu et al.•ARTICLE•The Journals of Gerontology…•2008•Cited by: 20•References: 3

    Our results, supporting the hypothesis of morbidity compression, indicate that younger cohorts of elderly persons are living longer in better health. The methods describe individual disability transitions and mortality and other factors associated with disability changes, making it possible to better evaluate interventions to promote future declines in disability

  • Black/White Differences in Health Status and Mortality Among the Elderly

    Open Access•Lisa Berkman, Burton Herbert Singer et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1989•Cited by: 19•References: 18

    Grade of membership (GOM) representations are used to characterize and compare the health status of a very heterogeneous sample of blacks and whites in an elderly cohort of 2,806 noninstitutionalized men and women living in New Haven, Connecticut. They were interviewed in 1982 as part of the Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (EPESE). Ideal profiles based on functional disabilities, chronic diseases, and selected b…

  • Changes in Morbidity and Chronic Disability in the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys

    Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•The Journals of Gerontology…•1995•Cited by: 16

    We examined changes in the reported prevalence of 16 medical conditions in the U.S. population age 65 and above using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys. Changes in those disease prevalence rates were examined both as observed, and after standardizing for changes in the age, sex, and disability distributions in the U.S. elderly population between 1982 and 1989. We found significant declines in the net prevalence of…

  • Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: A multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed Cohorts, 1982–1996

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, K C Land•ARTICLE•Demography•2000•Cited by: 15•References: 28

    An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality. The model is applied to data from the National Long Term Care Surveys of elderly persons in the years 1982 to 1996 to produce active life expectancy estimates based on completed-cohort life tables. At ages 65 and …

  • Changes in Home Care Use by Disabled Elderly Persons: 1982-1994

    K Liu, Kenneth G Manton et al.•ARTICLE•The Journals of Gerontology…•2000•Cited by: 12•References: 2

    Use of formal sources of care by community disabled elderly residents increased, likely because of changes in the Medicare home health care benefits in 1989. Increased use of home health care was associated with the concurrent use of informal care

  • Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, H Dennis Tolley et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1976•Cited by: 12•References: 22

    A lethal defect-wear model of mortality is presented which rationalizes the assumption of independent risks when death may be due to more than a single condition, Under this model, it is shown how competing risk theory and standard categorical data methods may be merged in a unified approach to the analysis of multiple-cause mortality data. The methodology is used to analyze linkages among diseases in the mortality data and evaluate the implicati…

  • Forecasting the Nursing Home Population

    Kenneth G Manton, Darius Lakdawalla et al.•ARTICLE•Medical Care•2003•Cited by: 10•References: 7

    OBJECTIVE: To forecast growth in the US nursing home population, as a function of trends in disability and marriage. METHODS: Nursing home residence is modeled as a function of disability status, marital status, and other demographic covariates. Our predictions for nursing home residence are built upon joint forecasts of marriage and disability. We use data from the 1992 to 1996 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys, which are individual-level dat…

  • Long-Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Xiliang Gu et al.•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•2006•Cited by: 9•References: 55

    Changes in life expectancy and in active life expectancy may have effects on the fiscal integrity of both the Social Security and Medicare programs. Analysis of the fiscal stability of these programs shows that the most serious problem may be the growth of Medicare expenditures projected to surpass, in about 2024, Social Security costs. This is aggravated by the associated rapid growth of the Medicaid program. To understand how the growth of Medi…

  • Education-Specific Estimates of Life Expectancy and Age-Specific Disability in the U.S. Elderly Population 1982 to 1991

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Aging and Health•1997•Cited by: 9•References: 2

    The authors used mortality data for 1982 to 1991 linked to survey records from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys to calculate gender differences over age in mortality and functional status for high (8 or more years of schooling) and low (less than 8 years of schooling) education subgroups. Males and females with high education maintained better functioning at later ages than those with low education. The authors also found …

  • A multiple cause of death analysis of hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina, 1968-1977

    S Wing, Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•American Journal of Public Health•1981•Cited by: 8•References: 9

    In this paper, records of all medical conditions on death certificates are used to evaluate hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina over the decade 1968-1977. Use of both an inclusive hypertension recode category and multiple cause data resulted in gains in information of over 750 per cent in all four race/sex groups compared to the commonly used underlying cause, hypertensive disease category. Race, sex and age specific 10-year trends i…

  • Rectangularization of the Survival Curve: Implications of an Ill-Posed Question

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, H Dennis Tolley•ARTICLE•Journal of Aging and Health•1991•Cited by: 7

    There has been considerable interest in the question of whether the human survival curve is becoming more rectangular as life expectancy in developed countries increases. However, despite the intuitive appeal of the rectangularization concept it has not been translated into a formally stated hypothesis about the shape of the human survival curve. This article examines how the hypothesis of rectangularization can be formally stated and the implica…

  • Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Sharon Sandomirsky Poss•ARTICLE•Demography•1979•Cited by: 7•References: 11

    A study is made of the effects of associated causes of death, and of dependency among causes of death, by observing the relative importance of one cause of death when another is eliminated under various competing risk models. Two disease pairs, cancer and infectious disease and stroke and ischemic heart disease, are selected for analysis because they represent different types of disease dependence. Crude probabilities of death for each disease ar…

  • Medicare Cost Effects of Recent U.S. Disability Trends in the Elderly: Future Implications

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Vicki L Lamb et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Aging and Health•2007•Cited by: 6•References: 2

    Preserving health in the growing nondisabled population did not require increased health care expenditures

  • Conceptual and measurement issues in assessing disability cross-nationally: Analysis of a WHO-sponsored survey of the disablement process in Indonesia

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, John E Dowd et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Cross-Cultural…•1986•Cited by: 6•References: 6

  • Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 To 1977

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Demography•1982•Cited by: 6•References: 9

    An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is “underlying cause” of death data—the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on cause-specific mortality. The second type of data is “multiple cause” data which contain a listing of all medical conditions recorded on the death certificate. A comparison of trends in the two ty…

  • Morbidity and disability patterns in four developing nations: Their implications for social and economic integration of the elderly

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, George C Myers et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Cross-Cultural…•1987•Cited by: 5•References: 7

  • Multidimensional Disability/Mortality Trajectories at Ages 65 and Over: The Impact of State Dependence

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, K C Land•ARTICLE•Social Indicators Research•2000•Cited by: 4•References: 1

  • Recent trends in multiple-caused mortality 1968 to 1982: Age and cohort components

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, George C Myers•ARTICLE•Population Research and Policy…•1987•Cited by: 4•References: 5

  • Grade-of-Membership Techniques for Studying Complex Event History Processes with Unobserved Covariates

    Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Sociological Methodology•1987•Cited by: 4

    Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Max A. Woodbury, H. Dennis Tolley, Anatoli I. Yashin, Grade-of-Membership Techniques for Studying Complex Event History Processes with Unobserved Covariates, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 17 (1987), pp. 309-346

  • The Use of Grade-of-Membership Techniques to Estimate Regression Relationships

    Kenneth G Manton, Max A Woodbury et al.•ARTICLE•Sociological Methodology•1992•Cited by: 3

    Kenneth G. Manton, Max A. Woodbury, Eric Stallard, Larry S. Corder, The Use of Grade-of-Membership Techniques to Estimate Regression Relationships, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 22 (1992), pp. 321-381

  • Methods for the Analysis of Mortality Risks Across Heterogeneous Small Populations: Examination of Space-Time Gradients in Cancer Mortality in North Carolina Counties 1970–75

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Demography•1981•Cited by: 3•References: 2

    A method of analyzing mortality rates in heterogeneous populations is presented. This method, appropriate for the investigation of mortality rates in small geographic areas (e.g., counties) where the forces of mobility operate to selectively “package” persons, is applied to the determination of whether a spatial west-east gradient in cancer mortality rates existed in North Carolina over the period 1970 to 1975. A significant gradient (as well as …

  • Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, H Dennis Tolley et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1976•Cited by: 12•References: 22

    A lethal defect-wear model of mortality is presented which rationalizes the assumption of independent risks when death may be due to more than a single condition, Under this model, it is shown how competing risk theory and standard categorical data methods may be merged in a unified approach to the analysis of multiple-cause mortality data. The methodology is used to analyze linkages among diseases in the mortality data and evaluate the implicati…

  • Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Sharon Sandomirsky Poss•ARTICLE•Demography•1979•Cited by: 7•References: 11

    A study is made of the effects of associated causes of death, and of dependency among causes of death, by observing the relative importance of one cause of death when another is eliminated under various competing risk models. Two disease pairs, cancer and infectious disease and stroke and ischemic heart disease, are selected for analysis because they represent different types of disease dependence. Crude probabilities of death for each disease ar…

  • The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality

    Open Access•James W Vaupel, Kenneth G Manton et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1979•Cited by: 194•References: 3

    Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of indiv…

  • Mortality of the Chronically Impaired

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Demography•1980•Cited by: 1•References: 4

    An analysis of the effects of diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis on death due to ischemic heart disease or stroke was conducted using multiple cause mortality statistics. Specifically, all U.S. deaths in 1969 were classified into two groups on the basis of whether diabetes or generalized atherosclerosis was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Then race and sex specific analyses were made of ischemic heart disease deaths (or alterna…

  • Estimates of U.S. Multiple Cause Life Tables

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1980•Cited by: 3•References: 6

    Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These “multiple cause” life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk eliminated is that of the cause of death only in its occurrence as the underlying cause of death. An evaluation is made of the possible effects of the multiple cause data on our perception of t…

  • A multiple cause of death analysis of hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina, 1968-1977

    S Wing, Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•American Journal of Public Health•1981•Cited by: 8•References: 9

    In this paper, records of all medical conditions on death certificates are used to evaluate hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina over the decade 1968-1977. Use of both an inclusive hypertension recode category and multiple cause data resulted in gains in information of over 750 per cent in all four race/sex groups compared to the commonly used underlying cause, hypertensive disease category. Race, sex and age specific 10-year trends i…

  • Methods for Comparing the Mortality Experience of Heterogeneous Populations

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Demography•1981•Cited by: 25•References: 4

    Methods are presented which produce Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the degree of heterogeneity in individual mortality risks under a variety of assumptions about the age trajectory of those mortality risks. With these estimates of the degree of population heterogeneity it is possible to adjust comparisons of mortality risks across populations for the effects of population heterogeneity, differential mortality selection, and different age t…

  • Methods for the Analysis of Mortality Risks Across Heterogeneous Small Populations: Examination of Space-Time Gradients in Cancer Mortality in North Carolina Counties 1970–75

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Demography•1981•Cited by: 3•References: 2

    A method of analyzing mortality rates in heterogeneous populations is presented. This method, appropriate for the investigation of mortality rates in small geographic areas (e.g., counties) where the forces of mobility operate to selectively “package” persons, is applied to the determination of whether a spatial west-east gradient in cancer mortality rates existed in North Carolina over the period 1970 to 1975. A significant gradient (as well as …

  • Changing Concepts of Morbidity and Mortality in the Elderly Population

    Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•The Milbank Memorial Fund…•1982

    A review of current theories concerning human mortality is first presented and their consistency with current evidence on mortality is considered. The author then presents some alternative perspectives on human mortality and longevity and discusses short- and long-term implications of various models of mortality. The need for systematic mortality research with a multidisciplinary perspective in order to understand current mortality conditions and…

  • Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 To 1977

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Demography•1982•Cited by: 6•References: 9

    An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is “underlying cause” of death data—the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on cause-specific mortality. The second type of data is “multiple cause” data which contain a listing of all medical conditions recorded on the death certificate. A comparison of trends in the two ty…

  • The Use of Mortality Time Series Data to Produce Hypothetical Morbidity Distributions and Project Mortality Trends

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Demography•1982•References: 9

    It is difficult to obtain direct empirical estimates of chronic disease prevalence in the U.S. population. The available estimates are usually derived from epidemiological studies of selected populations. In this paper we present strategies for estimating morbidity distributions in the national population using auxiliary biomedical evidence and theory to estimate transitions to morbidity states from a cohort mortality time series. We present comp…

  • The contribution of hypertension to mortality in the US: 1968, 1977

    S Wing, Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•American Journal of Public Health•1983•References: 12

    The contribution of hypertension to total mortality in the United States in 1968 and 1977 is assessed through multiple cause death rates for all mentions of hypertension and the death certificate prevalence of hypertension. Age-adjusted declines in the hypertension death rates were 32.8 per cent for non-White females, 30.4 per cent for non-White males, 30.3 per cent for White females, and 25.2 per cent for White males. Declines for younger non-Wh…

  • The Length-of-Stay Pattern of Nursing Home Admissions

    Korbin Liu, Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•Medical Care•1983

    The length of stay (LOS) pattern of nursing home admissions has not been directly measured because the long duration of stay of some patients (e.g., 25% of persons admitted reside in homes for longer than 1 year) makes it impractical to follow specific admission cohorts until the members have been discharged. By applying life-table methods to data on current and discharged residents from the 1977 National Nursing Home Survey, the authors were abl…

  • Projecting Chronic Disease Prevalence

    Kenneth G Manton, Korbin Liu•ARTICLE•Medical Care•1984

    Health and long-term care planning for an aging population is an important and necessary function for both the public and private sector. Unfortunately, efforts at planning have often been limited by difficulties in making estimates and forecasts of chronic disease prevalence in the population. These difficulties are a direct result of the natural history of chronic diseases that normally have long presymptomatic stages. Because of this character…

  • The Use of Grade of Membership Analysis to Evaluate and Modify Diagnosis-related Groups

    Kenneth G Manton, James C Vertrees•ARTICLE•Medical Care•1984

    A classification methodology is presented that can be used to evaluate the heterogeneity of reimbursement categories and service groups in multivariate terms. This methodology, called Grade of Membership analysis, has several properties that are particularly important in such assessments. First, simultaneously with the determination of the multivariate profile of characteristics that describe a group, the methodology determines the degree to whic…

  • A Continuous-Time Multivariate Gaussian Stochastic Model of Change in Discrete and Continuous Variables

    Kenneth G Manton, Max A Woodbury•ARTICLE•Sociological Methodology•1985

    A model is developed for the analysis of longitudinal data on human populations. The model not only assumes that a transition intensity (or rate) depends on some set of observed metric variables but also that these metric variables are themselves changing over time and that change in them is described by a linear partial differential equation driven by a random disturbance. The model is used to analyze panel data on coronary heart disease in Fram…

  • Recent Trends in Mortality Analysis

    Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard•ARTICLE•Population and Development Review•1985

    In this book [the authors] present a series of demographic models designed to investigate the effects of morbidity and mortality processes on human populations. The models are designed to be biologically realistic and to be consistent with both macro- and micro-level changes. An overview of trends in mortality analysis is first presented and the quality of available data is assessed with a geographic focus on the United States. Next empirical met…

  • Strategies for Collating Diverse Scientific Evidence in the Analysis of Population Health Characteristics: Bioactuarial Models of Chronic Disease Mortality for the Elderly

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, Korbin Liu•ARTICLE•Sociological Methods & Research•1985•Cited by: 2•References: 15

    The analysis of many social and health policy issues requires the use of multiple data sources from a diverse body of scientific and technical studies. Although individual data sets are rigorously analyzed, integration of the results of these analyses to resolve policy questions is often accomplished by informal or subjective strategies based on procedures designed to generate consensus among scientific experts. In this article we discuss a model…

  • Conceptual and measurement issues in assessing disability cross-nationally: Analysis of a WHO-sponsored survey of the disablement process in Indonesia

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, John E Dowd et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Cross-Cultural…•1986•Cited by: 6•References: 6

  • A Multivariate Approach for Classifying Hospitals and Computing Blended Payment Rates

    James C Vertrees, Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•Medical Care•1986

    Prospective payment for inpatient hospital care is based on the ideal that hospitals that produce similar outputs, as measured by the types of cases the hospital treats, should be paid similar prices. However, similar output is a multidimensional concept. Thus operationalization of this ideal will ultimately require a more complex framework for determining hospital payment rates than currently employed at either the federal or state level. This a…

  • Morbidity and disability patterns in four developing nations: Their implications for social and economic integration of the elderly

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, George C Myers et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Cross-Cultural…•1987•Cited by: 5•References: 7

  • Recent trends in multiple-caused mortality 1968 to 1982: Age and cohort components

    Open Access•Kenneth G Manton, George C Myers•ARTICLE•Population Research and Policy…•1987•Cited by: 4•References: 5

  • Grade-of-Membership Techniques for Studying Complex Event History Processes with Unobserved Covariates

    Kenneth G Manton, Eric Stallard et al.•ARTICLE•Sociological Methodology•1987•Cited by: 4

    Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, Max A. Woodbury, H. Dennis Tolley, Anatoli I. Yashin, Grade-of-Membership Techniques for Studying Complex Event History Processes with Unobserved Covariates, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 17 (1987), pp. 309-346

  • A Longitudinal Study of Functional Change and Mortality in the United States

    Kenneth G Manton•ARTICLE•Journal of Gerontology•1988

    Studies of functional impairments in the U.S. elderly population have tended to rely on prevalence estimates from nationally representative health and institutional surveys. These prevalence estimates generally show higher rates of disability for females than males. Unfortunately, prevalence estimates can be misleading when one attempts to assess the risks of certain types of health event transitions for individuals. This study directly examined …

  • Classification Model

    Open Access•David J Jackson, Max A Woodbury et al.•ARTICLE•Bulletin of Sociological…•1988•References: 1

    The Discrete GOM Model at a conceptual level is a model with enormous theoretical appeal as a psychometric model. While it was initially developed as a solution to problems posed in medical classification, social scientists should be quick to realize its many potential applications. This is especially true for sociologists who have been captivated by the intuitive appeal of typological theories, but have been limited by inadequate methodological …

Medicine (42 works) · Health disparities and outcomes (30 works) · Demography (27 works) · Population (27 works) · Global Health Care Issues (26 works) · Gerontology (25 works) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (20 works) · Demography (19 works) · Environmental health (16 works) · Gerontology (16 works)

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