Olivier Coibion
Biographic Data
| ID | 1471272 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Olivier Coibion |
| GIVEN NAMES | Olivier |
| FAMILY NAME | Coibion |
| SIGNATURE | COIBION O |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 39 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 2 |
The cost of the Covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals’ inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve’s inflation target…
The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic choices in the data and help us make sense of the observed heterogeneous reactions to business-cycle shocks and policy interventions. We conclude by highli…
Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic.We document several facts.First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 6th, far more than jobs lost over the entire Great Recession.Second, many of those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones…
The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households' spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage po…
Innocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the pres…
What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities
A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are …
Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model
We consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) in which firms follow one of four price‐setting regimes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule of thumb, or full‐information flexible prices. The parameters of the model, including the fraction of each type of firm, are estimated by matching the moments of the observed variables of the model to those found in the data. We find that sticky price firms and sticky information firms …
Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve
I consider the empirical evidence for the sticky information model relative to the basic sticky price model, conditional on historical measures of inflation forecasts. The estimated structural parameters are inconsistent with an underlying sticky information model and the sticky information Phillips curve is statistically dominated by the new Keynesian Phillips curve. I find that the poor performance of the sticky information approach is driven b…
What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities
A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are …
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals’ inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve’s inflation target…
The cost of the Covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending
Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve
I consider the empirical evidence for the sticky information model relative to the basic sticky price model, conditional on historical measures of inflation forecasts. The estimated structural parameters are inconsistent with an underlying sticky information model and the sticky information Phillips curve is statistically dominated by the new Keynesian Phillips curve. I find that the poor performance of the sticky information approach is driven b…
Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model
We consider a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) in which firms follow one of four price‐setting regimes: sticky prices, sticky information, rule of thumb, or full‐information flexible prices. The parameters of the model, including the fraction of each type of firm, are estimated by matching the moments of the observed variables of the model to those found in the data. We find that sticky price firms and sticky information firms …
What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities
A lot. We derive common and conflicting predictions from models in which agents face information constraints and then assess their validity using surveys of consumers, firms, central bankers, and professional forecasters. We document that mean forecasts fail to completely adjust on impact to shocks, leading to statistically and economically significant deviations from the null of full information. The dynamics of forecast errors after shocks are …
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to US and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the pres…
Innocent Bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality
Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View
We use a repeated large-scale survey of households in the Nielsen Homescan panel to characterize how labor markets are being affected by the covid-19 pandemic.We document several facts.First, job loss has been significantly larger than implied by new unemployment claims: we estimate 20 million lost jobs by April 6th, far more than jobs lost over the entire Great Recession.Second, many of those losing jobs are not actively looking to find new ones…
The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households' spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage po…
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals’ inflation expectations and then provide eight different forms of information regarding inflation. Reading the actual Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement has about the same average effect on expectations as simply being told about the Federal Reserve’s inflation target…
The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications
Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective inflation expectations are measured, the patterns they display, their determinants, and how they shape households' and firms' economic choices in the data and help us make sense of the observed heterogeneous reactions to business-cycle shocks and policy interventions. We conclude by highli…
The cost of the Covid-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending
Economics (10 works) · Monetary economics (7 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (7 works) · Monetary policy (6 works) · Macroeconomics (5 works) · Econometrics (4 works) · Market Dynamics and Volatility (4 works) · Economic theories and models (3 works) · Housing Market and Economics (3 works) · Recession (3 works)