The Cost of the Covid-19 Crisis
Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23329316 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Olivier Coibion (National Bureau of Economic Research), Yuriy Gorodnichenko (0000-0002-3639-4254, National Bureau of Economic Research), Michael Weber (0000-0002-6467-0252, National Bureau of Economic Research) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Publication date | 2020-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | REPORT |
| Venue | National Bureau of Economic Research (REPOSITORY) |
| Publisher | National Bureau of Economic Research (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.3386/w27141 |
| OpenAlex | W3022547455 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 64 |
| References cited | 13 |
We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households' spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and wealth losses due to the corona virus, with the average losses being $5,293 and $33,482 respectively. Aggregate consumer spending dropped by 31 log percentage points with the largest drops in travel and clothing. We find that households living in counties that went into lockdown earlier expect the unemployment rate over the next twelve months to be 13 percentage points higher and continue to expect higher unemployment at horizons of three to five years. They also expect lower future inflation, report higher uncertainty, expect lower mortgage rates for up to 10 years, and have moved out of foreign stocks into liquid forms of savings. The imposition of lockdowns can account for much of the decline in employment in recent months as well as declines in consumer spending. While lockdowns have pronounced effects on local economic conditions and households' expectations, they have little impact on approval ratings of Congress, the Fed, or the Treasury but lead to declines in the approval of the President.
Clothing · Consumer spending · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Demographic economics · Economics · Geography · Inflation (cosmology) · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Recession · Survey data collection · Treasury · Unemployment · Unemployment rate · COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
Covid-19
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The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to Covid-19
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Fear, lockdown, and diversion
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Enflasyon Muhasebesi ve Muhasebe Hileleri
State Contexts, Job Insecurity, and Subjective Well-being in the Time of Covid-19
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Research on economic impact of social-distancing measures in the context of the epidemic–empirical evidence from high frequency data of four municipalities
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Income and Employment Changes Under Covid-19 Lockdown
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Household vehicle transactions during and after the pandemic
Exposure to the Covid-19 Stock Market Crash and Its Effect on Household Expectations
Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders
Biases in Information Selection and Processing
Covid ‐19 emergency policies, financial security, and social equity
Association Between Covid-19 Risk Perceptions and Economic Expectations During the Pandemic in South Korea
Employment hysteresis in the United States during the Covid-19 pandemic
Entrepreneurial finance in an extended period of crises
The economic cost of locking down like China
The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme
Export policy cooperation in a pandemic
Exponential growth bias in the prediction of Covid‐19 spread and economic expectation
The Impact of Covid-19 Lockdowns on Household Income, Consumption and Expectations
Public Value and Ethical Challenges in the Covid-19 Pandemic Response
Unequal Opportunity Spreaders
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Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis
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What Will Be the Economic Impact of Covid-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios
Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001
Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump
Polarization and Public Health
How Does Household Spending Respond to an Epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 Covid-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus Fears and Macroeconomic Expectations
Monetary Policy Communications and Their Effects on Household Inflation Expectations
| Unique citing works | 64 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 10,67 |
| Citation span | 2020 - 2026 (7) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 56 |