Cornel Reinhart
Biographic Data
| ID | 1483972 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Cornel Reinhart |
| GIVEN NAMES | Cornel |
| FAMILY NAME | Reinhart |
| SIGNATURE | REINHART C |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Monetary Fund |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-4355-1411 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 27 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 139 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 27 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1990 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
China’s Lending to Developing Countries: From Boom to Bust
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of China’s lending to developing countries—a central feature of today’s international financial system. Building on our previous research and the work of others, we document the scale, destination, and terms of China’s overseas lending boom, as well as the lending bust and defaults that have followed. We compare China’s lending boom to past boom-bust cycles and discuss the implications of China’s rise …
The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention
A sketch of the International Monetary Fund's 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. This history is primarily consistent with a "demand driven" theory of institutional change, as the needs of its clients and the type of crisis changed substantially over time. Some deceptively "new" IMF activities are not entirely new. Before emerging market economies dominated IMF programs, advanced…
Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800
We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striki…
From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis
Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt …
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
The literature on domestic debt default is sparse, as are the data. We compile a database on public debt that spans the nineteenth century to 2010. Our findings are as follows. First, domestic debt accounts for almost two‐thirds of public debt. Second, the data help to explain the puzzle of why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. Third, domestic debt (which is often larger than the monetary base in the run‐up to …
Growth in a Time of Debt
We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is we…
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a ). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising lever age, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the sig…
This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England's fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis.Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions.It incorporates a number of important credit episodes seldom covered in the literature, including for example, defaults and restructurings in India and China.As the first paper employing this data, our aim is t…
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes.One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates.Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements.When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification rev…
The Douglas report: Chilean Mining and Its Political Representation in 1871
James Douglas (1873-1918), born i Canada, became e leading figure in the world copper industry and then mining in general. his firstgreat success came in Arizona after be located the Atlanta property for the Phelps-Dodge Company. He went on to become president of the company. he founded a family prominent in Arizonamining and politics . Earlyin this career, 1871, Douglas traveled extensibely Chile visiting the major cooper mining districs. Home i…
The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion
Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they co…
Fear of Floating
Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents of this view suggest that countries move to corner solutions—hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed…
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates. Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements. When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification …
Financial markets in times of stress
Stopping hot money
Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets
The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis—the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these…
Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation
Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods
As pointed out by Hall (1988), intertemporal substitution by consumers is a central element of many modern macroeconomic and international models. We argue that Hall's estimator or the IES is downward biased because the intra-temporal substitution between nondurable consumption goods and durable consumption goods is ignored and because the changes in real interest rates affect user costs of durable goods
Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s
Half a decade has passed since the resurgence of international capital flows to many developing countries and history has, once again, shown that foreign investment is prone to repeated booms and busts. Mexico's 1994 crisis is but a recent example that highlights the vulnerability of capital-importing countries to abrupt reversals; thus, an aim of policy is to reduce that vulnerability. This paper discusses the principal causes, facts, and polici…
Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination
The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation
Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems stem from the failure to account for the impact of financial innovation. We estimate the demand for money for ten developing countries, employing various proxies for financial innovation, and provide an assessment of the relative importa…
Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence
This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England's fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis.Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions.It incorporates a number of important credit episodes seldom covered in the literature, including for example, defaults and restructurings in India and China.As the first paper employing this data, our aim is t…
Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s
Half a decade has passed since the resurgence of international capital flows to many developing countries and history has, once again, shown that foreign investment is prone to repeated booms and busts. Mexico's 1994 crisis is but a recent example that highlights the vulnerability of capital-importing countries to abrupt reversals; thus, an aim of policy is to reduce that vulnerability. This paper discusses the principal causes, facts, and polici…
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
The literature on domestic debt default is sparse, as are the data. We compile a database on public debt that spans the nineteenth century to 2010. Our findings are as follows. First, domestic debt accounts for almost two‐thirds of public debt. Second, the data help to explain the puzzle of why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. Third, domestic debt (which is often larger than the monetary base in the run‐up to …
The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion
Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they co…
Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800
We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striki…
Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets
Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods
As pointed out by Hall (1988), intertemporal substitution by consumers is a central element of many modern macroeconomic and international models. We argue that Hall's estimator or the IES is downward biased because the intra-temporal substitution between nondurable consumption goods and durable consumption goods is ignored and because the changes in real interest rates affect user costs of durable goods
Private investment and economic growth in developing countries
Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence
The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention
A sketch of the International Monetary Fund's 70-year history reveals an institution that has reinvented itself over time along multiple dimensions. This history is primarily consistent with a "demand driven" theory of institutional change, as the needs of its clients and the type of crisis changed substantially over time. Some deceptively "new" IMF activities are not entirely new. Before emerging market economies dominated IMF programs, advanced…
Stopping hot money
The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation
Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems stem from the failure to account for the impact of financial innovation. We estimate the demand for money for ten developing countries, employing various proxies for financial innovation, and provide an assessment of the relative importa…
Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation
Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination
Financial markets in times of stress
Private investment and economic growth in developing countries
Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors
Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination
The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation
Traditional specifications of money demand have been commonly plagued by persistent overprediction, implausible parameter estimates, and highly autocorrelated errors. This paper argues that some of those problems stem from the failure to account for the impact of financial innovation. We estimate the demand for money for ten developing countries, employing various proxies for financial innovation, and provide an assessment of the relative importa…
Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence
Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s
Half a decade has passed since the resurgence of international capital flows to many developing countries and history has, once again, shown that foreign investment is prone to repeated booms and busts. Mexico's 1994 crisis is but a recent example that highlights the vulnerability of capital-importing countries to abrupt reversals; thus, an aim of policy is to reduce that vulnerability. This paper discusses the principal causes, facts, and polici…
Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation
Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Role of Durable Goods
As pointed out by Hall (1988), intertemporal substitution by consumers is a central element of many modern macroeconomic and international models. We argue that Hall's estimator or the IES is downward biased because the intra-temporal substitution between nondurable consumption goods and durable consumption goods is ignored and because the changes in real interest rates affect user costs of durable goods
The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and currency crises. We find that: problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis—the currency crisis deepens the banking crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises. The anatomy of these…
Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets
Stopping hot money
Fear of Floating
Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents of this view suggest that countries move to corner solutions—hard pegs or floating exchange rates. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates to assess whether there is evidence that country practice is moving toward corner solutions. We focus on whether countries that claim they are floating are indeed…
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates. Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements. When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification …
Financial markets in times of stress
The Douglas report: Chilean Mining and Its Political Representation in 1871
James Douglas (1873-1918), born i Canada, became e leading figure in the world copper industry and then mining in general. his firstgreat success came in Arizona after be located the Atlanta property for the Phelps-Dodge Company. He went on to become president of the company. he founded a family prominent in Arizonamining and politics . Earlyin this career, 1871, Douglas traveled extensibely Chile visiting the major cooper mining districs. Home i…
The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion
Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they co…
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes.One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates.Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements.When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification rev…
This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England's fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis.Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions.It incorporates a number of important credit episodes seldom covered in the literature, including for example, defaults and restructurings in India and China.As the first paper employing this data, our aim is t…
This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a ). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising lever age, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the sig…
Growth in a Time of Debt
We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is we…
From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis
Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt …
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
The literature on domestic debt default is sparse, as are the data. We compile a database on public debt that spans the nineteenth century to 2010. Our findings are as follows. First, domestic debt accounts for almost two‐thirds of public debt. Second, the data help to explain the puzzle of why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. Third, domestic debt (which is often larger than the monetary base in the run‐up to …
Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes Since 1800
We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striki…
Economics (23 works) · Global Financial Crisis and Policies (19 works) · Monetary economics (18 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (15 works) · Macroeconomics (12 works) · Banking stability, regulation, efficiency (10 works) · International economics (9 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (8 works) · Finance (8 works) · Political science (8 works)