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The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion

Bibliographic Data

ID4028898
AuthorsGraciela L Kaminsky (Professor of Economics, George Washington University, Washington, D.C; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Graciela Kaminsky (National Bureau of Economic Research), Carmen M Reinhart (Professor of Economics at University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Cornel Reinhart (0000-0003-4355-1411, National Bureau of Economic Research), Carlos A Vegh (Professor of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles, California; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.), Carlos Vegh (National Bureau of Economic Research)
Year2003
Volume17
Issue4
Pages51-74
Publication date2003-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueThe Journal of Economic Perspectives (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0895-3309 • E-ISSN: 1944-7965
PublisherAmerican Economic Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1257/089533003772034899
OpenAlexW2167666676
LanguageEN
Citations received28
References cited12

Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries -- which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet, on other occasions, similar events have failed to trigger any immediate international reaction. We argue that fast and furious contagion episodes are characterized by "the unholy trinity": (i) they follow a large surge in capital flows; (ii) they come as a surprise; and (iii) they involve a leveraged common creditor. In contrast, when similar events have elicited little international reaction, they were widely anticipated and took place at a time when capital flows had already subsided

Business · Capital flows · Creditor · Debt · Default · Economics · Financial contagion · Financial market · Financial system · International economics · Liberalization · Market economy · Monetary economics · Sociology · Surprise · Banking stability, regulation, efficiency · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · History · Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues · Finance

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Unique citing works28
Citations per year1,33
Citation span2005 - 2026 (22)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 24

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